Weather Orientation For LISTO-Jan28'2019

Basic Orientation on
Weather Forecasting
and Climate Outlook
for 2019
ESPERANZA OBLENA-CAYANAN, Ph.D.

Chief, Weather Division
PAGASA
PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
OUTLINE
Weather Update
Brief Introduction on PAGASA
Weather Forecasting
PAGASA Warnings and Advisories
Tropical Cyclone Warning System
Climate Outlook for February- June 2019
Recommendations
PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
DOST-PAGASA – HIMAWARI EIR IMAGE
NORTHEAST
MONSOON
Philippine
Atmospheric,
Geophysical &
Astronomical
Services
Administration
Legal Mandate
To provide protection against natural calamities and utilize
scientific knowledge as an effective instrument to insure the
safety, well being and economic security of all the people,
and for the promotion of national progress.
Section 2, Statement of Policy, Presidential Decree No. 78;

December 1972 as amended by PD No. 1149; August 1977
Mission
Deliver reliable and relevant weather-related information,
products and services to develop communities resilient to
typhoons, floods, rain-induced landslides, storm surges, extreme
climatic events climate change and astronomical hazards
Vision
The Center of Excellence for weather related information
and services
 The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a

Member of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), a specialized body of
the United Nations.
PAGASA MODERNIZED PAGASA
CHART
ORGANIZATIONAL • ICT Division
OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATOR • Info & Public
3 Deputy Administrators Awareness Division
• Administration & Engineering Services
• Operations & Services
• Research & Development
Financial, Planning Engineering and

Administrative
and Management Technical Services
Division
Division Division
Climatology and Research &

Hydro-Meteorology
Weather Division Agrometeorology Development and
Division
Division Training Division
National Capital Region
PAGASA Regional Northern Luzon
Services Divisions Southern Luzon

Visayas
(5)
Mindanao
PAGASA Regional Services Centers
MODERNIZED PAGASA:
TUGUEGARAO
ADDITIONAL 3 REGIONAL OFFICES
SAN FERNANDO,
LA UNION
CAGAYAN
• San Fernando, La Union
• Tacloban
LEGAZPI CITY
• Davao
ALBAY
CENTRAL OFFICE
QUEZON CITY
• Synoptic Observation
Network
• Flood Forecasting
TACLOBAN Warning Centers
• Radar Network
MACTAN CITY
CEBU
• Agromet Observation
Network
EL SALVADOR • Upper-Air
CAGAYAN DE ORO DAVAO
Observation Network
• AWS Network
• Rainfall Station
Network
The Weather and Climate Authority

What is Weather Forecasting?
Weather Forecasting is the application of
science and technology to predict the
future state of the atmosphere at a given
location.
Meteorological Knowledge of
Data Meteorology
Weather
Forecast
What is a weather forecast?
Weather Forecast is a scientific estimate of
the future atmospheric condition of a place
described by the different variables..
In the Philippines, the most significant

weather variables are ……
 Cloud
 Temperature
 Rain
 Wind
Pressure
End-to-End Warning System
24x7 Observations Reception/ Customization/ Utilization/ Response
Data Collection / Integration/ Tailor-fitting of Dissemination
Transmission Processing/ Warnings,
Analyses Advisories, Info
Field
Stations
Met. Satellites
Upper-air
Stations
Weather
Radars
Automatic
Stations
Ocean Buoys
Wind Profiler
Aviation Obs.
Stations-LIDARS
Lightning Detection
System
Wave Glider
Global
GTS
Observations
Coastal Radars
FORECASTING TOOLS
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
WEATHER MAP

Forecasting Tools
Weather Maps
850 hPa 700 hPa

Surface
500 hPa 300 hPa 200 hPa

RADAR: TYPHOON OMPONG LANDFALL

FORECASTING TOOLS
SATELLITE W/ MODEL WINDS

FORECASTING TOOLS
SATELLITE W/ OBSERVED DATA

DOST-PAGASA – HIMAWARI VISIBLE IMAGE
AS OF 2PM TODAY: LOCATION: 425 KM ESE
OF GUIUAN, EASTERN SAMAR (10.2°N,
129.5°E)
MAXWINDS/GUSTS: 55/65 KPH
MOVEMENT: W slowly
TD USMAN
DOST-PAGASA – HIMAWARI INFRARED IMAGE
TD USMAN
FORECASTING TOOLS: Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Global Spectral Model (GSM) - Japan Weather and Research Forecasting

Resolution: ~28 km x 28 km
(WRF) Model -PAGASA
Forecast: 3- 11 days
Global Forecast System (GFS) -USA
- Resolution 12 x 12 km
- Resolution 3 x 3 km
- Forecast up to 3 days

FORECASTING TOOLS: Numerical Weather Prediction Models
 Met UM JMA Storm Surge Model
10/07/2019
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

Thunderstorm Warnings

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING LEVELS
RAINFALL VALUES (mm) MEANING WARNING
Rainfall of 7.5 to 15 mm per Community

hour is expected to fall and
most likely to continue for the FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low lying
next 3 hours.
areas and near river channels
Rainfall of more than 15mm up to Community
30mm within 1 hour has fallen or
expected to fall and most likely to
continue or if continuous rainfall for FLOODING is THREATHENING in low
the past 3 hours is more than 45mm lying areas and near river channels
to 65mm
Rainfall of more than 30mm within 1 Community
hour has fallen or expected to fall Take Action
and most likely to continue or if
continuous rainfall for the past 3 SERIOUS FLOODING is EXPECTED
hours is more than 65mm
Take necessary precautionary measures

Southern Luzon PRSD HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING SYSTEM
LEGAZPI City , DARAGA, STO. DOMINGO, MALILIPOT
RAINFALL VALUES (mm) MEANING WARNING
Community AWARENESS Advisory

Observed accumulated rainfall of
50-60 mm within 24hr and rainfall Keep on Monitoring for weather YELLOW
likely to continue Updates
Observed accumulated rainfall of 50- Community PREPAREDNESS Alert

60mm for the past 24 hr with ORANGE
accumulated rainfall of 40-60 mm FLOODING AND LANDSLIDE IS
within the last 6 hours and still possible or threatening in low lying
likely to continue. areas and along the river
Observed accumulated rainfall of Community RESPONSE Emergency

100-120mm for the past 30 hr with
accumulated rainfall FLOODING AND LANDSLIDE is RED
> 60 mm within the last 6 hours and threatening or expected to occur
still likely to continue.
Gale Warning
When to issue
When winds strength is expected to reach 52 kph or
greater near the coast within the next6-12 hrs.
Lifting or Final Warning
When the wind force/ intensity has weakened and the final
warning will be issued after 6-12 hours.

Sample Gale Warning Delineation of Seaboard
Delineation of Seaboard

TROPICAL CYCLONES
GARDO
Max/Gust: 200 / 245 kph
PAGASA Payong
PAGASA
Monthly Average Tropical Cyclone
Occurrences within the PAR
4
3.4 3.4 3.1
2.7
3
2.3
2 1.5 1.4
0.9
1 0.5
0.3 0.3 0.4
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Updated Tropical Cyclone Classification
INTENSITY
CATEGORY Kilometer per Nautical miles per
hour (kph) hour [knots] (kt)
1. Tropical Depression (TD) 61 or less 33 or less
2. Tropical Storm (TS) 62- 88 34 - 47
3. Severe Tropical Storm (STS) 89 - 117 48 - 63

4. Typhoon (TY) 118 - 220 64 - 120
5. Super Typhoon (STY) more than 220 more than 120
Based on the classification of tropical cyclones being used in the warning

systems intended for international users and exchanges among the Typhoon
Committee Members (Category 1-4, from Chapter 4, Typhoon Committee
Operational Manual, Meteorological Component, 2015 Ed.)

Strong Winds
200 kph
150 kph
100 kph
60 kph
TOP VIEW OF A TYPHOON

Tropical Cyclone Hazards
STRONG WINDS LANDSLIDES/MUDFLOWS
FLOODS STORM SURGE

Shallow water coastline Deep water coastline

TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING SYSTEM
A. Tropical Cyclone Advisory
B. Severe Weather Bulletin
(SWB)
• SWB Alert
• SWB Warning

Tropical Cyclone Advisory
When to issue
A tropical cyclone is outside the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) (i.e. Marianas Is.) and could pose a threat
in the next 3 to 4 days. The tropical cyclone has no impending
threat yet to any part of the country.
Issued once a day at 11:00AM, Updates will be incorporated in the

4 AM and 4 PM issue of Public Weather Forecast.
NOTE:
Weather Advisory for other severe weather systems:
southwest monsoon, low pressure area (LPA) : it describes the
expected weather condition in affected areas and its duration

Severe Weather Bulletin (SWB)
• Alert - A tropical cyclone entered or developed inside the PAR
and has an impending threat the country. No tropical cyclone
warning signal (TCWS) is in effect.
Issuance is twice a day, 11 AM and 11 PM.
• Warning - Tropical cyclone has a real threat to some areas of
the country and Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. ONE
(TCWS#1) is already in effect.
Issuance is every six hours: 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM.
When a tropical cyclone is predicted to make landfall or pass
close to the coastline in 24 hrs, SWB will be issued every 3 hours
until the TC has no effect over the coast and landmass.
NOTE: Hourly update on the TC position is

given once a TCWS is raised over an area.
Tropical Cyclone Warning System
• TC Information will
be provided when
over the WN Pacific
Ocean outside PAR
• TC Advisory over
green area.
• Severe Weather
Bulletin over the
Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR)
in red

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS)
LEAD TIME WINDS
TCWS (hrs) IMPACTS
(KPH)
on 1st issuance
 Light damages to crops

#1 36 30 - 60  Cancellation of sea travel
 Moderate to heavy damages

to crops and fish ponds
#2 24 61-120  Partial disruption of power
distribution and
communication
 Widespread disruption of
power & communication
#3 18 121-170  Road closure due to
uprooted trees and fallen
transmission line
 Roads closed due to fallen

trees & collapsed bridges
#4 12 171-220  Total power disruption
more than Catastrophic damages

#5 12
220 (Delubyo)
STORM SURGE WARNING

• Still possible
intensification into
TROPICAL STORM
before landfall over
EASTERN SAMAR
TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (DEC
28)
• USMAN will cross the

northern parts of
Leyte, Panay Island,
Sulu Sea, northern
Palawan and West
Philippine Sea

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
Aklan, Capiz,
Romblon, Northern Iloilo,
Catanduanes, Northern Negros
SIGNAL Camarines Occ., Eastern
#1 Sur, Albay, Samar, Northern
Dinagat
(30-60 Sorsogon, Samar, Samar,
Island
km/h Masbate Biliran, Leyte,
expected including Southern Leyte,
Ticao and and Northern
Burias Islands Cebu including
Camotes Islands
As of 2PM 27 December 2018

WHAT TO EXPECT?
28 DEC 8AM (FRI) 28 DEC 8PM (FRI)

Presented in PDRA Dec 27, 2018
Observed Daily Rainfall (mm) for the past 11 Days (15-25 Dec. 2018)
STATION Climat Normal Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 TOTAL
BALER RADAR 405.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.1 0.7 12.0 5.4 118.6 5.2 2 147.4
CASIGURAN 495.6 18.8 10.8 0.0 16.2 1.0 0.0 37.9 39.0 109.5 3.5 0.8 237.5
TAYABAS 421.0 17.2 11.8 0.5 9.0 6.5 T 2.0 43.8 24.5 6.0 0 121.3
SANGLEY POINT 62.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.6 35.2 8.2 0 45.2
SCIENCE GARDEN 78.7 T 0.0 0.0 T T T 2.2 3.0 59.6 11.0 0 75.8
CALAPAN 216.2 3.0 4.2 0.0 13.4 1.8 1.4 0.0 1.8 11.0 6.0 18.6 61.2
AMBULONG 92.0 0.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 16.1 30.3 3.0 0 62.0
TANAY 2.0 2.0 0.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 2.0 23.2 96.0 3.0 0 132.4
INFANTA 675.8 0.9 3.5 0.0 12.0 0.5 7.4 15.3 30.4 133.1 11.0 28.2 242.3
ALABAT 636.6 2.8 6.2 T 17.0 1.0 18.0 3.6 55.8 44.6 27.3 0 176.3
DAET 588.4 8.2 2.3 0.8 2.6 2.8 10.4 0.9 52.0 212.5 14.0 0.5 307.0
LEGASPI CITY 520.2 63.5 34.4 8.0 1.0 9.0 47.0 0.2 41.4 75.0 6.4 2.4 288.3
VIRAC SYNOP 451.8 14.9 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.8 58.8 1.4 10.6 17.8 1.2 1.3 111.8
ROMBLON ISLAND 211.8 23.1 26.4 2.8 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 8.2 6.6 0 71.0
ROXAS CITY 171.3 1.0 0.5 8.5 1.5 3.0 20.5 10.0 16.0 2.5 4.5 0 68.0
MASBATE 258.9 30.6 119.6 5.4 0.0 4.1 36.0 2.3 13.4 4.8 0.4 0 216.6
SORSOGON 55.4 116.8 13.4 0.0 4.6 60.6 1.6 160.4 100.6 1.0 0.2 514.6
CATARMAN 628.2 23.4 85.4 17.8 0.3 25.2 116.6 1.0 49.8 27.3 0.7 0 347.5
CATBALOGAN 322.7 11.6 1.4 7.6 0.0 29.5 68.0 21.6 32.2 35.6 2.0 0.1 209.6
TACLOBAN CITY 386.0 7.0 0.8 12.6 0.0 74.6 75.5 40.8 16.0 22.0 0.2 2.2 251.7
BORONGAN 674.8 9.2 15.1 39.8 5.4 41.2 115.2 9.2 47.0 52.6 10.2 0 344.9
GUIUAN 440.1 1.5 0.5 37.4 3.1 13.5 22.5 32.8 55.6 15.4 2.8 0.2 185.3
PTO PRINCESA 150.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.5 24.6 17.3 0 51.6
TAGBILARAN CITY 153.6 3.2 0.0 15.4 0.0 10.6 21.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 71.4
MACTAN AIRPORT 139.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 2.0 6.1 84.7 9.7 5.1 T 0.0 0 108.5
MAASIN 2261.0 23.2 0.0 11.6 3.8 22.8 24.8 14.8 8.2 17.0 7.0 0 133.2
SURIGAO CITY 585.2 11.0 0.0 11.2 36.1 94.2 27.2 32.5 51.8 17.6 2.1 1.3 285.0
BUTUAN CITY 238.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 69.4 0.7 10.5 12.2 1.3 5.0 0.1 99.2
DAVAO CITY 112.6 5.1 3.8 5.2 16.2 35.8 T 0.0 4.9 28.4 1.0 1 101.4
HINATUAN CITY 555.1 39.2 32.7 12.7 17.2 55.3 0.6 5.2 2.6 T 27.6 0 193.1
WHAT TO EXPECT?
• Possible raising of TCWS #1 over Camarines Norte, Southern
Quezon, Marinduque, southern Oriental Mindoro, Antique, Rest of
Iloilo and Guimaras in the next Severe Weather Bulletin (5:00PM
today).
• "USMAN" still may intensify into a Tropical Storm prior to landfall
over Eastern Samar on tomorrow afternoon (28 December, Friday)
but the probability is lower.
• Moderate to heavy rains, which may trigger floodings and
landslides, are expected over Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern
Visayas and Dinagat Islands today and tomorrow (December 27
& 28). Meanwhile, the same severe weather will prevail over the
rest of Visayas, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque and Quezon
tomorrow. Residents of these areas, especially those living near
river channels and in low-lying and mountainous areas, are advised
to take precautionary measures, coordinate with local disaster risk
reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for
updates.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RAINFALL PROVIDED BY PAGASA TO NDRRMC FOR
FLOOD/LANDSLIDE WARNING
ACCUMULATED
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL
STATION OBSERVED OBSERVED + MODEL
RAINFALL FORECAST
FORECAST TOTAL
TOTAL TOTAL
NAME Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26 Dec-27 OBSERVE Dec-28 Dec-29 Dec-30 FORECAS TOTAL RAINFALL
D T
ITBAYAT 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.0 51.0 6.6 23.4 23.4 106.3 2.13 8.63 23.50 34.3 140.6
APARRI 0.0 52.0 0.0 5.0 100.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 157.4 12.44 31.94 37.00 81.4 238.8
TUGUEGARAO 0.0 15.2 0.1 8.0 20.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.1 8.63 26.25 34.25 69.1 113.2
BALER RADAR 0.7 12.0 5.4 118.6 5.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 143.9 13.00 34.63 22.13 69.8 213.7
CASIGURAN 0.0 37.9 39.0 109.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 190.7 12.69 33.31 24.38 70.4 261.1
TAYABAS 0.5 2.0 43.8 24.5 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.8 46.31 89.44 4.00 139.8 216.6
SCI. GARDEN 0.5 2.2 3.0 59.6 11.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 82.7 2.25 23.50 0.63 26.4 109.1
CALAPAN 1.4 0.0 1.8 11.0 6.0 18.6 5.0 5.0 48.8 45.88 82.00 27.38 155.3 204.1
INFANTA 7.4 15.3 30.4 133.1 11.0 28.2 0.5 0.5 226.4 81.94 118.31 39.25 239.5 465.9
ALABAT 18.0 3.6 55.8 44.6 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 149.3 90.81 108.44 28.88 228.1 377.4
DAET 10.4 0.9 52.0 212.5 14.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 290.3 128.44 121.19 21.00 270.6 560.9
LEGASPI CITY 47.0 0.2 41.4 75.0 6.4 2.4 0.0 0.0 172.4 91.06 46.81 3.63 141.5 313.9
VIRAC SYNOP 58.8 1.4 10.6 17.8 1.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 91.1 93.25 72.50 13.88 179.6 270.7
ROMBLON IS. 3.9 0.0 0.0 8.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.7 53.88 68.88 13.25 136.0 154.7
ROXAS CITY 20.5 10.0 16.0 2.5 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.5 42.44 29.56 4.63 76.6 130.1
MASBATE 36.0 2.3 13.4 4.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.9 50.06 19.69 1.13 70.9 127.8
SORSOGON 60.6 1.6 160.4 100.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 324.4 135.44 63.44 10.63 209.5 533.9
CATARMAN 116.6 1.0 49.8 27.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 195.4 134.00 13.75 0.75 148.5 343.9
CATBALOGAN 68.0 21.6 32.2 35.6 2.0 0.1 7.0 7.0 173.5 64.75 9.00 0.25 74.0 247.5
TACLOBAN CITY 75.5 40.8 16.0 22.0 0.2 2.2 6.8 6.8 170.3 58.56 5.31 3.63 67.5 237.8
BORONGAN 115.2 9.2 47.0 52.6 10.2 0.0 7.0 7.0 248.2 90.88 27.25 16.75 134.9 383.1
GUIUAN 22.5 32.8 55.6 15.4 2.8 0.2 6.6 6.6 142.5 86.50 19.00 13.63 119.1 261.6
PAGASA ISLAND 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PTO PRINCESA 0.0 9.2 0.5 24.6 17.3 0.0 2.4 2.4 56.4 1.56 5.69 13.63 20.9 77.3
CUYO ISLAND 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.2 10.56 10.31 13.25 34.1 36.3
DUMAGUETE 10.6 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.19 6.06 2.38 8.6 22.0
TAGBILARAN 21.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 42.2 8.25 1.63 0.13 10.0 52.2
The Weather and Climate Authority NOTE: This was sent on 28 Dec 2018
TROPICAL DEPRESSION “USMAN”
5:00 AM 29 December 2018
5 AM DECEMBER 29, 2018
POTENTIAL RISK AREAS FOR
TD USMAN
PROVINCES
AREAS
AFFECTED
Aklan
Albay
Antique
Batangas
Biliran
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Capiz
Catanduanes
Cebu
Eastern Samar
ALERT LEVEL Guimaras
“500 Diameter of Iloilo
Tropical Leyte
Cyclone” Marinduque
Masbate
Negros Occidental
Northern Samar
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro
Palawan
Quezon
Romblon
Samar
Sorsogon
Southern Leyte
TD USMAN
AREAS WINDS & PROVINCES POTENTIAL IMPACTS
AFFECTED RAINFALL DUE TO SEVERE WIND
 Twigs and branches of trees may be
Winds: broken
Up to 55 km/h  Some banana plants may tilt or land
flat on the ground
 Rice in flowering stage may suffer
significant damage
 Some nipa and cogon houses may be
Aklan partially unroofed
Antique
Biliran
Capiz
Cebu
ALERT LEVEL
Eastern Samar
“100KM Diamter from
Rainfall: Guimaras
the forecast track”
Heavy – Leyte
Occasionally Intense Masbate
Negros Occidental
Northern Samar
Palawan
Samar
TD USMAN
Winds: broken
flat on the ground
significant damage
partially unroofed
Albay
ALERT LEVEL Iloilo
“300KM Diameter
Occidental Mindoro
from the forecast Rainfall:
Oriental Mindoro
track” Moderate – Heavy
Romblon
Sorsogon
TD USMAN
Winds: broken
flat on the ground
significant damage
partially unroofed
Batangas
Camarines Norte
ALERT LEVEL
Camarines Sur
“500KM Diameter
Rainfall: Catanduanes
from the forecast
Light to Moderate to Marinduque
track”
Occasionally Heavy Quezon
Southern Leyte
RAINFALL INTENSITY:
Light: <2.5mm/hr
Moderate: 2.6 – 7.5mm/hr
Heavy: 7.6 – 15.0mm/hr
Intense: 15.1 – 30mm/hr
Torrential: >30mm/hr
NEW STRATEGY
CRITICAL AREAS Listed down to Barangay

Himawari Visible image of TD USMAN_28Dec2018@12:40pm
Tail End of a cold

Front
Outer spiral
band of TD
Usman
Estimated
Center of TD
Usman
The interaction of the outer spiral band of TD USMAN and the tail-end of the cold front led to
heavy rainfall over CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and MIMAROPA on 28-29
December 2018.
OBSERVED RAINFALL for 20-29 Dec 2018 Compared to Monthly
Climatological Normal Monthly
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Total RR 10 Climat 10 Day %
Station 20 21 22 23 Dec 24 25 26 27 28 Dec 29 Days Normal Normal
Casiguran 0 37.9 39 109.5 3.5 0.8 0 23.4 14.8 33.2 262.1 495.6 52.9
Baler 0.7 12 5.4 118.6 5.2 2 0 0 8 10.6 162.5 405.9 40.0
Port Area 0 0 0.4 45 9.7 0 1.9 0 12.5 2.9 72.4 67.4 107.4
NAIA 0 2 T 44.5 5.5 0 0 T 19.5 6 77.5 28.6 271.0
Sangley 0 1 0.6 35.2 8.2 0 0.2 0 17 5.3 67.5 62.7 107.7
S.G. T 2.2 3 59.6 11 0 3.2 T 15.4 8.6 103 78.7 130.9
Tanay 0 2 23.2 96 3 0 0 0 62.2 3.5 189.9
Ambulong 0 12 16.1 30.3 3 0 0 1.2 36.7 9.5 108.8 92 118.3
Calapan 1.4 0 1.8 11 6 18.6 5 1 76.3 73 194.1 216.2 89.8
Tayabas T 12 43.8 24.5 6 0 0 6 166.4 78.3 337 421 80.0
Infanta 7.4 15.3 30.4 133.1 11 28.2 0.5 2.3 89.7 77.6 395.5 675.8 58.5
Alabat 18 3.5 55.8 44.6 27.3 0 0 6.2 183 247.7 586.1 636.6 92.1
Daet 10.4 0.9 52 212.5 14 0.5 0 7.4 174 399.2 870.9 588.4 148.0
Virac 58.8 1.4 10.6 17.8 1.2 1.3 0 8.6 221.4 162.7 483.8 451.8 107.1
Legaspi 47 0.2 41.4 75 6.4 2.4 0 3.8 244.8 215.3 636.3 520.2 122.3
Sorsogon 60.6 1.6 160.4 100.6 1 0.2 0 13.2 268.6 99.6 705.8
Masbate 36 2.6 13.4 4.8 0.4 0 0 4.6 133.8 143.2 338.8 258.9 130.9
Romblon 3.9 0 0 8.2 6.6 0 0 0.6 37.9 126.6 183.8 211.8 86.8
Catarman 116.6 1 49.8 27.3 0.7 0 0 32 438 8.8 674.2 628.2 107.3
Borongan 115.2 9.2 47 52.6 10.2 0 7 33.2 187.8 7.4 469.6 674.8 69.6
Catbalogan 68 21.6 32.2 35.6 2 0.1 7 9.5 90.9 6.6 273.5 322.7 84.8
Guiuan 22.5 32.8 55.6 15.4 2.8 0.2 6.6 60.5 53.6 0.3 250.3 440.1 56.9
Tacloban 75.5 40.8 16 22 0.2 2.2 6.8 15.2 99.2 0.4 278.3 386 72.1
Monthly
OBSERVED Station Dec-28 Dec-29 Total Climat
2 Day %
Normal
Normal
RAINFALL Casiguran 14.8 33.2 48 495.6 9.7
FOR 2 DAYS (28-29 Baler 8 10.6 18.6 405.9 4.6
DEC 2018) Port Area 12.5 2.9 15.4 67.4 22.8
Compared to Monthly NAIA 19.5 6 25.5 28.6 89.2
Sangley 17 5.3 22.3 62.7 35.6
Normal Rainfall S.G. 15.4 8.6 24 78.7 30.5
Tanay 62.2 3.5 65.7
Ambulong 36.7 9.5 46.2 92 50.2
Calapan 76.3 73 149.3 216.2 69.1
Tayabas 166.4 78.3 244.7 421 58.1
Infanta 89.7 77.6 167.3 675.8 24.8
Alabat 183 247.7 430.7 636.6 67.7
Daet 174 399.2 573.2 588.4 97.4
Virac 221.4 162.7 384.1 451.8 85.0
Legaspi 244.8 215.3 460.1 520.2 88.4 One month
Sorsogon 268.6 99.6 368.2 rains poured
Masbate 133.8 143.2 277 258.9 107.0
Romblon 37.9 126.6 164.5 211.8 77.7 only for
Catarman 438 8.8 446.8 628.2 71.1 about 2 days
Borongan 187.8 7.4 195.2 674.8 28.9 only.
Catbalogan 90.9 6.6 97.5 322.7 30.2
Guiuan 53.6 0.3 53.9 440.1 12.2
Tacloban 99.2 0.4 99.6 386 25.8
BUCAF 19.1 237.1 256.2
Pili 207.2 144.8 352
BUYS-BALLOT LAW
IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF LOWEST PRESSURE:

FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE:
- Facing the Wind direction, on your right is the location of Lower
pressure and on your left is Higher pressure.
FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE:
- Facing the Wind direction, on your left is the area of Lower pressure
and on your right is Higher pressure.
Information Dissemination End Users/
Packages Channel Beneficiaries
Office of the Regional Centers

Tropical President
cyclone Local Government
advisories & Office of the General
Disaster Response Public
warnings Civil Defense Agencies
Quad-Media
Regional Centers
PAGASA Field
Tropical Local Government
Stations
Cyclone
Warnings for
Shipping Navigators
Aviation
Forecasts / Airline Pilots
warnings
Warning Dissemination
COMMUNICATION AND DISSEMINATION
Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment
- It is a process to evaluate a hazard’s level of risk, assessing the possible
impacts of the hazard to the community and is used to determine the
appropriate level of response action from the national to the local
government. HAZARD SPECIFIC, AREA FOCUS & TIME BOUND
DOST-PAGASA
HOW IS THE WARNING/
BULLETIN DISSEMINATED ?
www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph @dost_pagasa
New PAGASA Website
http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
PAGASA’s Meteopilipinas
http://meteopilipinas.gov.ph/
Mobile Website:
Please visit
m.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather
Techniques Application and Meteorological Satellite Section, Weather Division

Google Public Alerts
http://google.org/crisismap/philippines

PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status
 EL NIÑO WATCH
• Despite SSTs at El Niño levels, atmospheric indicators such as cloudiness,
tradewinds and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) do not show evidence for El
Niño to become fully established;
• Weak El Nino or not, impacts may occur in some areas of the country.
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
(in % of Normal)
Rainfall Condition
(based on recent
conditions):
February – July 2019
MONITORING
Dry condition / Dry spell / Drought CRITERIA
Dry condition = two (2) consecutive months of below normal (21%-
60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions;
Dry spell = three (3) consecutive months of below normal (21%-

60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions;
or
two (2) consecutive months of way below normal (more than
60% reduction from average) rainfall conditions.
Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal

(>60% reduction from average);
or
five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60%
reduction from average) rainfall condition.
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
AS OF January 21, 2019 (ACTUAL)
PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY CONDITION (2)
LUZON (0) NONE
VISAYAS (0) NONE
MINDANAO (2) MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL, TAWI-TAWI
PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY SPELL (6)

LUZON (0) NONE
VISAYAS (0) NONE
MINDANAO (6) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY, BUKIDNON,

BASILAN, MAGUINDANAO, SULU
PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DROUGHT (3)
LUZON (1) ILOCOS NORTE
VISAYAS (0) NONE
MINDANAO (2) LANAO DEL NORTE, LANAO DEL SUR
NOTE: Based on September – January 21,

2019 observed monthly rainfall
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
AS OF January 21, 2019
PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY CONDITION (0)
LUZON NONE
VISAYAS NONE
MINDANAO NONE
PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DRY SPELL (17 or 20%)

LUZON (12) BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE,
CAGAYAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, METRO MANILA, BATANGAS,
LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON, ORIENTAL MINDORO
VISAYAS (3) ANTIQUE, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS ORIENTAL
MINDANAO (2) ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
PROVINCES THAT EXPERIENCED DROUGHT (15 or 18%)
LUZON (15) ABRA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,

PANGASINAN, BATAAN, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA,
PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, CAVITE, OCCIDENTAL
MINDORO, PALAWAN
VISAYAS (0) NONE
MINDANAO (0) NONE

Forecast Tropical Cyclone
Frequency
MONTH NUMBER OF TC
FEBRUARY 2019 Slim chance
MARCH 2019 0 OR 1
APRIL 2019 0 OR 1
MAY 2019 1 OR 2
JUNE 2019 1 OR 2
JULY 2019 2 OR 3
4 - 7 TCs from FEB - JUL 2019
2019/7/10
RECOMMENDATIONS
 Consider time in the “hotdog” Critical areas
 Continuous monitoring and feedback
 Understand the critical areas at risk to flooding and
landslides issued by MGB from rainfall forecast by
PAGASA
 If Barangay is under high risk, pre-emptive
evacuation is a MUST
 New strategies to ensure that the warnings e issued
reach the concern LGU’s
 Regular IEC and Drills
CRITICAL AREAS
GSM DAILY RAINFALL FORECAST
8PM June 7 – 8PM June 8 8PM June 8 – 8PM June 9 8PM June 9 – 8PM June 10
WRF DAILY RAINFALL FORECAST
UM DAILY RAINFALL FORECAST
PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES
ADMINISTRATION (PAGASA)
Consultation Meeting for the DILG NAPOLCOM Office

Revision of LISTO Manuals March 22, 2018
Updates and Recommendations

 During the occurrence of weaker Tropical Cyclone (TD and weaker
Storms), LGUs should also monitor on the occurrence of heavy rainfall
because this will caused flooding and landslides. Be prepared to evacuate
to safer place when necessary. The damage caused by flooding and
landslides is severe compared to the wind.
 When PAGASA issue a Weather Advisory for LPA inside PAR or TC Advisory
outside PAR, the PDRRMC, LDRRMC will conduct a PDRA or emergency
meeting regarding the possible effects of the LPA or if this will develop
into a TC and made landfall. Also the possible effects of the TC outside
PAR, when it will enter PAR and made landfall.
 Areas not covered by TCWS should also watch out for the possible effects
of heavy rainfall. This areas are also mention in the Bulletin.
For any early warning system to succeed,
several components are necessary:
• Technology to detect and monitor the hazard;
• Communication systems to alert the public;
• Local leaders trained to make the right decisions;
• A public that is educated to react appropriately to warnings; and
• Response protocols — such as evacuation plans — prepared
and rehearsed well in advance of the threat.
All these elements must work well, both individually and

in harmony.
Failure in any one of these elements can mean failure of the
whole early warning system.

Building Resilient Community thru 4Gs
Good forecast…
Good communication…
Good decision…
Go and TAKE
ACTION!

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Weather Orientation For LISTO-Jan28'2019

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Weather Orientation For LISTO-Jan28'2019

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Basic Orientation on

ESPERANZA OBLENA-CAYANAN, Ph.D.

Brief Introduction on PAGASA

PAGASA Warnings and Advisories

Tropical Cyclone Warning System

Climate Outlook for February- June 2019

Section 2, Statement of Policy, Presidential Decree No. 78;

 The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a

Financial, Planning Engineering and

Climatology and Research &

Services Divisions Southern Luzon

The Weather and Climate Authority

In the Philippines, the most significant

The Weather and Climate Authority

850 hPa 700 hPa

500 hPa 300 hPa 200 hPa

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

Global Spectral Model (GSM) - Japan Weather and Research Forecasting

Global Forecast System (GFS) -USA

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Met UM JMA Storm Surge Model

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

RAINFALL VALUES (mm) MEANING WARNING

Rainfall of 7.5 to 15 mm per Community

The Weather and Climate Authority

Community AWARENESS Advisory

Observed accumulated rainfall of 50- Community PREPAREDNESS Alert

Observed accumulated rainfall of Community RESPONSE Emergency

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

3. Severe Tropical Storm (STS) 89 - 117 48 - 63

5. Super Typhoon (STY) more than 220 more than 120

Based on the classification of tropical cyclones being used in the warning

The Weather and Climate Authority

TOP VIEW OF A TYPHOON

The Weather and Climate Authority

FLOODS STORM SURGE

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

Issued once a day at 11:00AM, Updates will be incorporated in the

The Weather and Climate Authority

NOTE: Hourly update on the TC position is

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Light damages to crops

 Moderate to heavy damages

 Roads closed due to fallen

more than Catastrophic damages

The Weather and Climate Authority

• USMAN will cross the

The Weather and Climate Authority

As of 2PM 27 December 2018

28 DEC 8AM (FRI) 28 DEC 8PM (FRI)

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority

CRITICAL AREAS Listed down to Barangay

Tail End of a cold

IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF LOWEST PRESSURE: