Revision of Probabilities: Bayes’ Rule

P(G  E1) = 0.665

P(D  E1) = 0.035

P(G  E2) = 0.27

P(D  E2) = 0.03

P(D)= P(D  E1) + P(D  E2) =.035+.03=.065
P(E1/D)= P(D  E1) /P(D)= .035/.065=.5384615
P(E2/D)= P(D  E2) /P(D)= .03/.065=.4615384
 Calculation of posterior probabilities

Prior Prob Cond. prob Joint probability Posterior Prob

P(Ei) P(D/Ei) P(D Ei) P(Ei/D)
Event Ei = P(D/Ei) x P(Ei)
E1 .70 .05 .035 P(D E1)/P(D)
= .035/.065
=.5384615
E2 .30 .10 .03 .03/.065=
.4615384
Total 1 P(D)=.065 1

Prob that defective part came from supp 1 is 53.84% and from second supp is 46.15%