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Estimation
with Single
Samples
• Point estimate X
X
n
• Interval
Estimate
XZ
n
or
XZ XZ
n n
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Distribution
Distribution of
of Sample
Sample Means
Means
for
for (1-)%
(1-)% Confidence
Confidence
2 2
X
Z
Z 0 Z
2 2
2 2
.5 .5
2 2
X
Z
Z 0 Z
2 2
2 1 1 2
2 2
X
Z
Z 0 Z
2 2
Pr ob[ X Z X Z ] 1
2 n 2 n
.025 .025
95%
.4750 .4750
X
Z
-1.96 0 1.96
X Z X Z
n n
11. 11
.
4.26 196
. 4.26 196
.
60 60
4.26 0.28 4.26 0.28
3.98 4.54
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
95%
95% Confidence
Confidence Intervals for
Intervals for
95%
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
N n N n
X Z X Z
n N 1 n N 1
8 800 50 8 800 50
34.3 2.33 34.3 2.33
50 800 1 50 800 1
34.3 2.55 34.3 2.55
31.75 36.85
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Confidence
Confidence Interval
Interval to Estimate
to Estimate
when
when nn is
is Large and is
Large and is Unknown
Unknown
S
X Z
n 2
or
S S
X Z X Z
n 2
n 2
Confidence
Z Value
Level
90% 1.645
95% 1.96
98% 2.33
99% 2.575
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
. 318
Pr ob[110 . ] 0.99
pq
pq
p Z P p Z
n n
( 0.16)(0.84) ( 0.16)( 0.84)
0.16 1.645 P 0.16 1.645
212 212
0.16 0.04 P 0.16 0.04
0.12 P 0.20
. P 0.20] 0.90
Pr ob[012
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Determining
Determining Sample Size
Size
when Estimating
when Estimating
• Z formula X
Z
n
• Error of Estimation E X
(tolerable error)
• Estimated Sample Size Z 2 Z 2
2 2 2
n 2
E E
• Estimated 1 range
4
Z
2 2
n 2
2
E
2 2
(1645
. ) (4)
2
1
43.30 or 44
Z
2 2
n 2
E
2 2
(196
. ) ( 6.25)
2
2
37.52 or 38
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Determining
Determining Sample Size
when
when Estimating
Estimating P
P
p$ P
• Z formula Z P Q
• Error of Estimationn(tolerable
error)
• Estimated Sample Size E p$ P
Z PQ
2
n
E
2
n
Z PQ
2
E
2
( 2.33 ) 0.40 0.60
.003 2
1,447.7 or 1,448
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Determining Sample Size when
Estimating P with No Prior Information
P PQ 400 Z = 1.96
350 E = 0.05
0.5 0.25
300
0.4 0.24 250
n 200
0.3 0.21
150
n 4
E
2
n
Z PQ
2
E
2
(1645
. ) 0.50 0.50
.05 2
270.6 or 271
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-