Subtitel

1. RESOURCE PLANNING: SITUATION TODAY

 DIFFERENT INSTRUMENTS AND TOOLS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST YEARS

1. Methodology and IT-tool for resource planning

2. Job familiy descriptions and competency profiles (levels D, C

and B)

3. Job descriptions, job evaluation levels and generic competency

profiles for level A

NOT YET INTEGRATED AND STRATEGIC

 CURRENT RESOURCE PLANNING  METHODOLOGY

I. DETERMINE THE ‘AS IS’ SITUATION

1. Inventory of personnel data: identification of all juridicial

elements of all personnel members of the organisation (ID,
grade, administrative position(s), statutory/contractual,
seniority, actual salary, …)

2. Identify the effective number of FTE

3. Calculation of the current effective cost (year T) and

extrapolation to year T+1 (estimate of structural impact of
current effective cost)
 ANALYSIS OF THE EXISTING SITUATION

Current
situation

Employee Personnel Envelope

Juridicial elements Operational

Principles

Cost
Statute Resources

Recrutement, Operational Available

Selection, Promotion Needs budget

Objectifs
 II. AVAILABLE BUDGET

1. Comparison of available budget envelope to the estimated cost

 identification of the budget margins

2. Budget margins  action plan (recruitments, promotions, …)

 Flexibility only within this available budgetary margin
 III. PLANNING

1. Short Term (Year T and T+1)

2. Mainly a mathematical and financial exercise (quantitative) 

no link to competencies, mainly based on the ‘administrative’
position

3. Rigid administrative and budgetary control procedures

 PLANNING

Objectifs

FTE €

Evolution wanted Allocated budget

Expected changes Estimated cost
Principles

Personnel needs Available margin

Action plan

Personnel
Plan
HOW TO CHANGE TO A STRATEGIC
AND QUALITATIVE APPROACH?
 CHALLENGES

1. Add a qualitative element to the inventory of the personnel data:

job profile or job familiy profile (description and competency
profile)  depending on the level.

2. Generic approach: ‘level’ of competencies, type of activities,

domains of expertise; no individual competencies.
 CHALLENGES

Link of qualitative and quantitative data:

 indication of the competency needs for the following years
 basis to determine the possible ways to realise these through
• development (possibly followed by promotion)
• recruitment
• mobility

Instrument for resource planning, based on the effective

competency needs of the organisation

Transparant link to the disposable budget

Strategic approach, at least covering a full legislation period,

yearly adjustable (unexpected circumstances, changes in
priorities, link to strategic management plans of the
organisations, …)
 The Process of Human Resource Planning

• Organizations need to do human resource planning so they can meet

business objectives and gain a competitive advantage over competitors.

• Human resource planning compares the present state of the organization with its
goals for the future
• Then identifies what changes it must make in its human resources to meet those
goals
Overview of the Human Resource Planning
Process
 Human Resource Forecasting
• HR Forecasting attempts to
determine the supply and demand
for various types of human
resources, and to predict areas
within the organization where
there will be labor shortages or
surpluses.
There are three major steps to
forecasting:
1.Forecasting the demand for labor
2.Determining labor supply
3.Determining labor surpluses and
shortages
HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS)

(Trying to predict future staffing needs)
Managerial Estimates
Sales Projections
Simulations
Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover)

FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS)

(Predicting worker flows and availabilities)
Succession or Replacement Charts
Skills Inventories (use of HRIS)
Labor Market Analysis
Markov Analysis (Transition Matrix)
Personnel Ratios
Forecasting the Demand for Labor

Trend Analysis
• Constructing and applying statistical models that predict labor demand
for the next year, given relatively objective statistics from the previous
year.

Leading Indicators
• Objective measures that accurately predict future labor demand.
CORRELATIONS/PROJECTIONS

SIZE OF HOSPITAL NUMBER OF NURSES

200 240
300 260
400 470
500 500
600 620
700 660
800 820
900 860
 SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST

TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST

MODEL
Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3)

Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store

X1 = Square feet of sales space
X2 = Population of metropolitan area
X3 = Projected annual disposable income in millions of dollars

Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(150,000popul) + .00000002($850 million)

Y = 8 + 55 + 6 + 17

Y = 86 employees needed at this store

VACANCY ANALYSIS
Historic departures used to project turnover

LEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to Remain

TOP MGMT 100 20 % 20 80

MID MGMT 200 24 % 48 152

LOW MGMT 600 22 % 132 468

SKILLED W 600 16% 96 504

ASSY WKRS 2000 12 % 240 1760

TOTALS 3500 536 2964

AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 = .1531

Determining Labor Supply
Predicting Worker Flows and Availabilities

• Succession or Replacement Charts

Who has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotion right NOW?
• Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS)
An employee database that can be searched when vacancies occur.
• Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis)
A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the proportion of
employees in each of those job categories in a future period.
It answers two questions:
1. “Where did people in each job category go?”
2. “Where did people now in each job category come from?
• Personnel / Yield Ratios
How much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?
SUCCESSION PLANNING
REPLACEMENT CHART
FOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS

POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS

FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION

------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER

DANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now

PRESENT PROMOTION
POSSIBLE CANDIDATES CURRENT POSITION PERFORMANCE POTENTIAL

SHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding Ready Now

GEORGE WEI N. California Sales Manager Outstanding Needs Training
HARRY SHOW Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Satisfactory Needs Training
TRAVIS WOOD Seattle Area Sales ManagerSatisfactory Questionable

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS (HRIS)

PERSONAL DATA
Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etc
EDUCATION & SKILLS
Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications
Languages spoken, Specialty skills
Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software
JOB HISTORY
Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc.
Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development
MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS
Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments
PREFERENCES & INTERESTS
Career goals, Types of positions sought
Geographic preferences
CAPACITY FOR GROWTH
Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company
Transition Matrix
Example for an Auto Parts Manufacturer
MARKOV ANALYSIS
(STATISTICAL REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS)

TO:  A TRANSITION MATRIX

FROM:
TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT

TOP .80 .02 .18

MID .10 .76 .04 .10

LOW .06 .78 .01 .15

SKILL .01 .84 .15

ASSY .05 .88 .07

------------------------------------------
MARKOV ANALYSIS – 2
(Captures effects of internal transfers)

(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX

FROM/ TO:  TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18

MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10

LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15

SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15

ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07

---------------------------------------------------------
END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 240* 368 tot
NEED LAYOFFS ? (10)* (10) tot
KEEP STABLE 100 200 600 600 2000 = 3500 Tot
MARKOV ANALYSIS – 3
(Anticipates Changes in Employment Levels)

Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers

(660), and a 15% decrease in assembly workers (1700) by year’s end.
-------------------------------------------------------
(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX
FROM/ TO:  TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18
MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15
ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07
---------------------------------------------------------
END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 50*
NEED LAYOFFS ? (60)*
NEW LEVELS 100 200 600 600 1700 = 3260 tot
Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage

• Based on the forecasts for labor demand and supply, the planner can
compare the figures to determine whether there will be a shortage or
surplus of labor for each job category.
• Determining expected shortages and surpluses allows the organization
to plan how to address these challenges.
PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOS
Past experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant:

FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKS PROMISING ENOUGH TO

INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEW

OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLY OFFERED A POSITION

IN THE ORGANIZATION

OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION

OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING PROGRAM, ONLY 9

SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAM

THUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that

8.33 JOB INTERVIEWS CAN BE HELD, so that
1.67 JOB OFFERS CAN BE MADE, and
1.11 PEOPLE MUST BE TRAINED, so that we get
ONE NEW COST ACCOUNTANT!!!
 HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING
“The achievement of corporate objectives through the development of strategies
designed to enhance the contribution of people at all times in the foreseeable future.”
More simply
a) Employ the right number of people with the right skills and ability at the right time.
b) Monitor how people are used now and will be used in the future and to improve their
utilisation.
c) Improve people’s performance by training, development and by providing satisfying
work.

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNERS LOOK AT 4 THINGS:

1. Internal Factors
2. The Internal Labour Market
3. The External Labour Market
4. Other External Factors
INTERNAL FACTORS
Human Resource planning starts with the organisation’s corporate objectives: The number of people and the types of
skill it will need in the future depend, amongst other things, upon:
I. The company’s plans for capital expenditure
II. Any new technology it intends to use
III. The new products or services it intends to introduce
IV. The new markets it intends to enter
V. Any acquisitions it intends to make
VI. The state of the economy and its likely effects on the business.
HR planners will use this information to: estimate the number and types of people that will be required to carry them out.
THE INTERNAL LABOUR MARKET
HR planners will analyse their existing workforce. The business will want to get the best out of its existing people before
it considers employing others.
• What skills have we got?
• How many of each do we have?
• What levels of performance are we getting?
• Can people transfer their skills to other jobs?
• Are Trade Unions concerned about this?
• Promotion Prospects?
• Age Distribution of the Staff
• Sex Balance / Ethnic balance
• Leaving rate / Staff turnover
• Retirement profile
THE EXTERNAL LABOUR MARKET
HR planners will look at:
1. The availability of young people leaving education with relevant training
2. The competition for staff
3. Unemployment level
4. Wage rates
5. The state of the Economy
6. The influence of Trade Unions
7. The State of Technology
8. Availability of training / retraining schemes.
OTHER EXTERNAL FACTORS
HR planers also need to think about:
I. Availability and Quality of Housing
II. Transport Services
III. Schools
IV. Recreational Facilities
V. Social and Cultural Opportunities
The above have become increasingly important in recent years when firms have tried to attract key
personnel.
 HRM and competitive advantage
The case for HRM:
It will make the workers and thus the organisation more competitive (illustrated by the performance of
many Japanese companies).
It treats everyone as an individual (rather than treating all workers as homogenous) thus each individual is
nurtured and developed in pursuit of the organisations objectives.
If successful, workers are motivated, committed and do not wish to leave. They are also aware of their role
in fulfilling company objectives.
Therefore the business will :
•Incur lower recruitment costs
•Higher productivity
•Reduction in faulty products
•Attract better worker (all these factors should improve domestic and international competitiveness.
The case against HRM:
•It can cause industrial relations problems due to the fact Trade Union recognition is a problem under HRM.
This can be damaging to a business’s competitive performance.
•The firms culture and management style may not be conducive to HR policies.
•HRM may involve additional costs in the short-term.