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, Bombay duck
Boxer
Anas, Beagle
Six blind men ( inexperienced mangers ) were given the
task of drawing an elephant. None of the had a vision of
the entire beast , each caught hold of some part or other
and based on their own experience drew an elephant .
The project is to draw an elephant, as none of them had the big
picture of the entire beast (elephant) . Each relied on the utter
ignorance about the rest.
Can they draw an elephant by just adding all parts as they
comprehended as the whole , without understanding how and
where each part would fit into. ?????.
Fifth one First one touched the
touched the ear elephant’s side and
and said it is expressed it as a big wall.
like a fan.
7
Commonly used project management terms
• Project deliverables : Tangible out comes to be competed for successful completion of
project
• Scope of work ( SOW ) for the project: A detailed narrative description of the work
required for a project. It Can be written in the form of a legal contract.
• Gantt chart : Visual diagram used for plotting interdependent task in project with time
• Work break down structure. : WBS is a deliverable oriented breakdown of a project into
smaller components. ( Decomposition of large complex task in easily manageable small
activities . ) It is is a key project deliverable that organizes the team’s work into
manageable sections.
• Project kick off : Formal start of project .
• Backward pass - This calculates late-start and finish dates for project activities by working
backwards from the project end date.
• Baseline - This term represent the costs and schedules approved at the start of the project.
They use baselines as a basis for monitoring and evaluating performance.
• BOSCARD - This method details and considers the background, objectives, scope,
constraints, assumptions, risks, and deliverables of new projects.
• Burn down chart - A graph that shows the relationship between the number of tasks to be
completed and the amount of time left to complete these tasks.
• Burst point - A point in a network diagram at which multiple successor activities originate
from a common predecessor activity.
• Contingency reserve - An allocation of time or money (or both) set aside for the
occurrence of known possibilities that could delay a project or make it more expensive.
• Cost overrun - A cost overrun occurs when unexpected costs cause a project’s actual
cost to go beyond budget.
• Cost variance - The CV of a project is its earned value minus its actual cost ( assigned
cost to the activity). A negative cost variance indicates that a project is running over
budget. A positive cost variance indicates that a project is running below budget
Statement of Work (SOW) for the project: A detailed narrative description of the work required for a project.
Successful project
management means
meeting all three goals
(scope, time, and cost)
Project manager along with the team need to understand the impact of
the risk ( high or low ) and causes responsible for it . He also need to
analyse the likelihood of the causes happening .
Of RISK
Write down 6 action items which are likely to go wrong while organizing a product launch
event.
Sr no. Action items Likelihood Impact on ( C,S,T, Q) Exposure ( L x I)
( 1,2,3,4,5)
1
2
3
4
5
6
A Risk Assessment Worksheet
Risk Identification Probability x Impact = Exposure
Reduced work force 5 x 2.0 = 10.0
Loss of resources 4 x 3.0 = 12.0
Failure to meet feature set requirements 2 x 1.5 = 3.0
Inadequate reviews 4 x 2.5 = 10.0
Budget cuts 2 x 2.5 = 5.0
Schedule slippage 5 x 1.5 = 7.5
Overall Project Risk Score: 48.5
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION
TEAM MANAGER
COMMERCIAL
AND CONTRACT
MANAGEMENT IMPLEMENTATION
TEAM TEAM
WHO CAN BE A PROJECT MANAGER
PM PHASES
BOSCARD preparation
SOW preparation .
Risk assessment matrix Baseline approvals , WBS , Responsibility
assignment Matrix , Gantt chart
Project
organization is matching its resources and
capabilities with the opportunities in the external
environment.
Screening Steps
25
CAGR of the investment in the project
The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is the rate of return indicating the
cumulative growth rate of an investment from its beginning value to its maturity
value , assuming the profits were reinvested at the end of each year of the
investment’s lifespan.
It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have
grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the
end of each year.
Initial investment : 10,000
Matured value of the investment : 19,000
Time period : 3 years
IRR is the discount rate which equates the present value of the future cash flows of an investment with the
initial investment.
The IRR rule states that if the internal rate of return (IRR) on an investment is greater
than the minimum required rate of return, typically the cost of capital, then the
investment should be pursued.
The higher the IRR on a investment the greater the amount by which it exceeds the cost of
capital, the higher the net cash flows to the investor.
A project should only be accepted if its IRR > the target internal rate of
return.
A rate at which net
present value of all future
cash flow becomes equal
to initial investment
IRR values are used to rank multiple prospective investment options in a project that a firm is
considering on a comparatively even basis.
9-31
A project has an estimated fixed expense of 1,20,000 . The project is designed for
an output capacity of 50000 units. The project team has decided to sell per unit at a
price of Rs 16 . The estimated variable expense is Rs 12 per unit .
Assuming the project will deliver result at its 100% capacity , find the break even
stage in percentage.
If the price is dropped by one rupee what will be its impact on B.E volume and sales
at 100 % capacity utilization by the project.
Cumulative
values INR
Inter médiate
Initial Phases Final
Total budget of Phase Phase
the Project
Maximum variation
is observed
Planned Value (PV). The authorized budget to accomplish the planned work.
Previously, this was called the budgeted costs for work scheduled (BCWS).
Earned Value (EV). The sum of the approved cost estimates which may include
overhead allocation for activities or portions of activities completed during a given
period ( project review date). Previously called the budgeted cost of work
performed (BCWP) for an activity or group of activities.
Actual Cost (AC). Total costs incurred that must relate to whatever cost was
budgeted within the planned value and earned value (which can sometimes be direct
labor hours alone, direct costs alone, or all costs including indirect costs) in
accomplishing work during a given time period.
% budget
of the total budget for the work
Cost Variance = EV – AC
EV
Example : If the budgeted cost of a project at 10,00,000 and it is
supposed to be completed in 10 months. After a month, you should
have completed 15 percent of the project , but the actual completion
is 10% at a total expense of 1,25,000.
Calculate the Cost Variance and Schedule Variance of the project .
Planned Value ???
Cost Variance = EV – AC
= 1,00,000 – 1,25,000 = (25000)
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) is a ratio of the earned value (EV) to the planned value
(PV). If the SPI is less than one, it indicates that the project is potentially behind schedule to-
date whereas an SPI greater than one, indicates the project is running ahead of schedule.
Performance Evaluation Parameters for Projects
Project Planning Process: Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
■ Modules are further broken down into subcomponents, activities, and finally, into
individual tasks.
The work effort for each task is estimated and those estimates are rolled up into the final
deliverable estimate.
The tasks are also prioritized, dependencies between tasks are identified, and this
information is documented in a project schedule.
The dependencies between the tasks can affect the length of the overall project
(dependency constrained), as can the availability of resources (resource constrained).
Time is different from all other resources and cost categories.
43
WBS
Prepare a WBS for conducting a marketing promotion campaign drive in
three cities simultaneously for a new product launched by the company .
• Should list the major tasks , activities , time for each activities and total
time for the task .
• Priorities need to be assigned and dependencies between the tasks
• Create Responsibility assignment matrix.
Project time management
• A list of all activities required to complete the project (categorized
within a WBS)
• The time (duration) that each activity will take to complete.
• The dependencies between the activities and, logical end points
such as milestones or deliverable items.
Variance = [ ( b – a) / 6] 2 Normal
σ = √ [ ( b – a) / 6] 2 Distribution
Area under
Probability
curve
between a
Probability
and b is
99.74%
3s 3s Time
a m b
a m b
Mean
Mean
Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) For
Dealing With Uncertainty
• So far, times can be estimated with relative certainty, confidence
Variance (V) = [ ( b – a) / 6] 2
50
1. Following project schedule gives time estimates for activities codified as A to K . Find the critical path of
the project. What is the probability of project getting extended by 6 weeks from normal time.
15 67/ 67
C
End
F
A 10 57/57
12 10
G K
Start J 6
0/0 B 35 4
22/22 E 61/ 61
9
24 H
D
9/11 40
10 19/21
A – C- G- J- K = 67 weeks
Critical Path. The series of activities that determines the duration of the project. The
critical path comprises of those activities with zero float value. It is the longest path
through the project.
Project time management
Float or Slack . The amount of time that an activity may be delayed from its early
start without delaying the project finish date. Float is a mathematical calculation, and
can change as the project progresses and changes are made to the project plan.
Free Float (FF). The amount of time that an activity can be delayed without
delaying the early start of any immediately following activities.
A B E
Start
Finish
D F
C
B
A E
Start Finish
C F
D
What is the Probability of exceeding the project to 73 weeks?
Given that: Critical Path= A – C- G- J- K = 67 weeks
73 – 67
z= = 1.52
3.94
From Normal Distribution table
Pz = .1.52 .935 probability
Activity predecessor O Most likely P
A - 1 2 3
B - 2 2 8
C A 6 7 8
D B 1 2 3
E A 1 4 7
F C,D 1 5 9
G C,D,E 1 2 3
H F 1 2 9
2. Above given are the activities of a project. Find the project completion time.
What is the Probability of not completing the project on or before 15 weeks.
If .8 is the probability of completing the project, find the project completion time?
Duration in weeks
MEAN
Activity predecessor O M P Variance
A - 1 2 3 2 .11
B - 2 2 8 3
C A 6 7 8 7 .11
D B 1 2 3 2
E A 1 4 7 4
F C,D 1 5 9 5 1.78
G C,D,E 1 2 3 2
H F 1 2 9 3 1.78
2/2
15/9
E
G
A
C
17/17
B H
0/0
F
D
0/0 B E
5.17 G
5.33 5.17
14.34
5.33 14.34
9.17
22/22
C F
I
E
B
H
Probability of completing the project in 19 days is too less , probability for completing
in 24 days is
z = 24 - 22 ÷ √ 5 = .8944
from Z table .8944 = .813
= 81.3 %
3.Calculate the critical path for the given project data. Find the
probability of completing the project in 48 weeks.
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Activity Description
time time time
A -- Develop product specifications 2 4 6
B -A Design manufacturing process 3 7 10
C -A Source & purchase materials 2 3 5
D -B Source & purchase tooling & equipment 4 7 9
E -D Receive & install tooling & equipment 12 16 20
F -C Receive materials 2 5 8
G -E,F Pilot production run 2 2 2
H G Evaluate product design 2 3 4
I G Evaluate process performance 2 3 5
J - H,I Write documentation report 2 4 6
K -J Transition to manufacturing 2 2 2
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
Activity
time time time time
A 2 4 6 4 0.44
B 3 7 10 6.83 1.36
C 2 3 5 3.17 0.25
D 4 7 9 6.83 0.69
E 12 16 20 16 1.78
F 2 5 8 5 1.00
G 2 2 2 2 0.00
H 2 3 4 3 0.11
I 2 3 5 3.17 0.25
J 2 4 6 4 0.44
K 2 2 2 2 0.00
ABDEGIJK is the project’s critical path = 44.6 WEEKS
variance = 4.96
48 weeks 44.66 weeks
z 1.50
4.96
Equipment includes such things as cranes, test rigs, process simulators, etc. Materials
includes such things as the concrete to be poured, the wire to be installed, etc. Resources
are generally not unlimited and the project team needs to “level” out the use and
consumption of resources.
The Challenge : The basic challenge of the planner is to develop a project execution plan
that fits the allotted time and can be achieved with the available resources. As there are
many activities vying for resources at various times, it is a complex juggling job to try to
schedule the activities so that they will not be held back by the lack of resources.
But when resources are limited, the „critical path‟ and „slack‟ lose their significance. Activity may be
delayed due to non -availability of resources as well as due to change in the sequence of tasks.
The process of distribution of available resources to meet the objectives of various activities
constituting a project is called „Resource Allocation‟ or „Resource Loading‟. This is done in a way so
that the project completion schedule is least affected.
The act of taking a project with people assigned to a bunch of tasks and making it so that they don't
have to work overtime is called Resource Leveling.
Types of Resource leveling
1 Delaying the task : If a resource is not available for a given task, the given task would be delayed. Perform
the activity which is given higher priority. The priority for all the tasks may be assigned at the time of
preparation of the schedule structure.
To control which tasks take precedence over other tasks, user can set project priorities, so that if the user is
working with a common pool of resources among multiple projects, the right projects and tasks take
precedence.
Time-Cost Trade-Off
Reducing both project’s cost and time is critical in today’s market-
driven economy. This relationship between projects’ time and
cost is called time-cost trade-off decisions.
73
Reasons to Reduce Project Durations:
74
Methods to reduce durations:
1. Have the existing resources work overtime. This increase the labor costs due
to increase pay rate and decrease productivity.
3. Hire more or advanced equipment. This will usually increase costs due to
rental and transport fees.
75
= Direct costs + Indirect costs
76
Network Compression steps
cost slope = crash cost - normal cost
normal duration- crash duration
• shortening the CRITICAL ACTIVITIES beginning with the activity having
the lowest cost-slope
• Determine the compression limit (Nil)
- Crash Limit, or
Nil = Min - Free Float of any of the non critical activities
in the parallel paths competing for critical path.*
77
Project Costs Definitions
78
Network Compression Algorithm
• When a new Critical path is formed:
• Shorten the combination of activity which Falls on Both Critical Paths, OR
• Shorten one activity from each of the critical paths. Use the combined cost of
shortening both activities when determining if it is cost effective to shorten
the project.
• At each shortening cycle, compute the new project duration and
project cost
79
Establish the least cost for expediting the contract. Determine the optimum
duration of the project assuming the indirect cost per week is Rs 125.
.
Normal Crash
Activity Preceded by Duration Cost Duration Cost
(weeks) (Rs ) (weeks) (Rs )
A — 12 7000 10 7200
B A 8 5000 6 5300
C A 15 4000 12 4600
D B 23 5000 23 5000
E B 5 1000 4 1050
F C 5 3000 4 3300
G E,C 20 6000 15 6300
H F 13 2500 11 2580
I D , G, H 12 3000 10 3140
å 36 ,500 38470
80
20/22
B A-C-G-H = 59
12/12 D
A E
8 23 I
5
0/0 G 59/59
12
20 12
C 27/27 47/47
15 H 13
Activity Slope
F
Cc-Cn 5
A 100 27/27 32/34
Tn-Tc
C 200
G 60
I 70
Cycle Activity Can Be Days Cost per Cost for Total Project
Nil
# to Shorten Shortened Shortened Week Cycle Cost Duration
0 36,500 59
1 G 5 2 2 60 120 36,620 57
Cycle # Project Direct Indirect Total Cost
duration cost cost 125/wk)
0 59 36500 7375 43875
1 57 36620 7125 43745
82
20 23 43
D 4
24 4 47
0
0 12 12 12 8 20 20 5 25 27 20 47 47 12 59
A B E G I
0 0 12 14 2 22 22 2 27 27 0 47 47 0 59
2@100 2@150 1@50 5@60 2@70
2
12 15 27 27 5 32 32 13 45
F H ES D EF
C
29 2 34 34 2 47 Activity
12 0 27
3@200 1@300 2@40 LS F LF
Crash limit
Cycle Activity Can Be Days Cost per Cost for Total Project
Nil
# to Shorten Shortened Shortened Week Cycle Cost Duration
0 36,500 59
1 G 5 2 2 60 120 36,620 57
83
20 23 43
D
22 2 45
0
0 12 12 12 8 20 20 5 25 27 18 45 45 12 57
A B E G I
0 0 12 14 2 22 22 2 27 27 0 45 45 0 55
2@100 2@150 1@50 3@60 2@70
12 15 27 27 5 32 32 13 45
ES D E F
C F H
Activity
12 0 27 27 0 32 32 0 45
3@200 1@300 2@40 L S F LF
Crash limit
Cycle Activity Can Be Days Cost per Cost for Total Project
Nil
# to Shorten Shortened Shortened Week Cycle Cost Duration
0 36 , 500 59
1 G 5 2 2 60 120 36 , 620 57
2 I 2 - 2 70 140 36 , 760 55
0 10 10 10 8 18 20 5 25 25 18 43 43 10 53
A B E G I
0 0 10 12 2 20 22 2 27 25 0 43 43 0 53
0 2@150 1@50 3@60 0
10 15 25 25 5 30 30 13 43
ES D EF
C F H
Activity
10 0 25 25 0 30 30 0 43
3@200 1@300 2@40 LS F LF
Crash limit
Cycle Activity Can Be Days Cost per Cost for Total Project
Nil
# to Shorten Shortened Shortened Week Cycle Cost Duration
0 36,500 59
1 G 5 2 2 60 120 36,620 57
2 I 2 2 70 140 36,760 55
3 A 2 2 100 200 36,960 53
4 H, G 2 2 2 60+40 200 37,160 51
Spring 2008, King Time-Cost-Trade-off
86
Saud University Dr. Khalid Al-Gahtani
18 23 41
D
18 0 41
0
0 10 10 10 8 18 18 5 23 25 16 41 41 10 51
A B 0 E G I
0 0 10 10 0 18 20 2 25 25 0 41 41 0 51
0 2@150 1@50 1@60 0
10 15 25 25 5 30 30 11 41
ES D EF
C F H
Activity
10 0 25 25 0 30 30 0 41
3@200 1@300 0 LS F LF
Crash limit
Cycle Activity Can Be Days Cost per Cost for Total Project
Nil
# to Shorten Shortened Shortened Week Cycle Cost Duration
0 36,500 59
1 G 5 2 2 60 120 36,620 57
2 I 2 2 70 140 36,760 55
3 A 2 2 100 200 36,960 53
4 G, H 2 2 2 60+40 200 37,160 51
Spring 2008,
5 B, C
Saud University
King
2 Time-Cost-Trade-off
2 150+200
Dr. Khalid Al-Gahtani
700 37,860 49 87
16 23 39
D
16 0 39
0
0 10 10 10 6 16 16 5 21 23 16 39 39 10 49
A B E G I
0 0 10 10 0 16 18 2 23 23 0 39 39 0 49
0 0 1@50 1@60 0
10 13 23 23 5 28 28 11 39
ES D EF
C F H
Activity
10 0 23 23 0 28 28 0 39
1@200 1@300 0 LS F LF
Crash limit
On completion, the project will give a return of $110/day. Using time-cost trade-off method,
how much would you like to compress the project for maximizing the return? Show all
calculations.