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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

CPM
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 2

Scheduling computations for arrow


networks
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 3
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 4

NETWORK PROBLEM

Activity Days Precedents


a Schedule of liabilities -
b Mail confirmation a
c Test pension plan a
d Vouch selected liabilities a
e Test accruals d
f Process confirmations b
g Reconcile interest c, e
h Verify debt compliance f
i Investigate balances g
j Review payments h, i

Wanted: the network, the CP, and slack times of activities


Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 5

NETWORK PROBLEM

Activity Days Precedents


a Schedule of liabilities 3 -
b Mail confirmation 15 a
c Test pension plan 5 a
d Vouch selected liabilities 60 a
e Test accruals 6 d
f Process confirmations 40 b
g Reconcile interest 10 c, e
h Verify debt compliance 7 f
i Investigate balances 6 g
j Review payments 12 h, i

Wanted: the network, the CP, and slack times of activities


Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 6

NETWORK SOLUTION

f
3 40 6 h
b 7 j
15 i 8 12 9
a c g
1 3
2 5 4 10 7 6
d e
60 6
5
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 7

NETWORK SOLUTION

slack

18 f 58
3 38 40 6 78 h
b 7 85 j 97
15 i 8 85 12 9 97
0 a 3 c 69 g 79
1 0 3
2 3 5 4 69 10 7 79
6
d e
60 6
63
5 63
Critical path
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 8
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 9
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 10
PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 12

PROJECT COMPLETION TIME

When analysing and negotiating the project completion


time the PM should try to determine the probability that a
project will be completed by the suggested time, OR find
the completion time associated with a predetermined
level of risk.

There are statistical methods for doing this, which are


applicable if you know the risks for each activity.
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 13

CALCULATING TIMES

 Completion time is found using three time estimates:


 Optimistic (a), Pessimistic (b), and most likely (m), which are
expressions of the risk associated with the time required for
each activity
 On the distribution graph m is the mode, a is the estimation of
actual time so that the the actual time will be a or greater about
99 percent of time, and b is estimated such that about 99% of
the time the activity will have a duration of b or less
 Expected Time (TE) is found by: TE=(a + 4m + b)/6
 The method is based on BETA statistical distribution. TE is an
estimate of the mean of the distribution, as a weighted average of
a,b, and m with weight 1-4-1
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 14

EXPECTED TIME, TE

a m TE b
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 15

PROJECT ACTIVITY TIMES AND


PRECEDENCES

Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Immediate predecessor


time time time activities
a 10 22 22 -
b 20 20 20 -
c 4 10 16 -
d 2 14 32 a
e 8 8 20 b, c
f 8 14 20 b, c
g 4 4 4 b, c
h 2 12 16 c
i 6 16 38 g, h
j 2 8 14 d, e
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 16

ACTIVITY ON ARROW (AOA)


EXAMPLE

d
2 6
j
a e

1 b f
3 7

g
c i
h
4 5
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 17

EXPECTED TIME
TE=(A + 4M + B)/6

Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected Immediate


time time time time (TE) predecessor
activities
a 10 22 22 -
b 20 20 20 -
c 4 10 16 -
d 2 14 32 a
e 8 8 20 b, c
f 8 14 20 b, c
g 4 4 4 b, c
h 2 12 16 c
i 6 16 38 g, h
j 2 8 14 d, e
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 18

EXPECTED TIME
TE=(A + 4M + B)/6

Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected Immediate


time time time time (TE) predecessor
activities
a 10 22 22 20 -
b 20 20 20 20 -
c 4 10 16 10 -
d 2 14 32 15 a
e 8 8 20 10 b, c
f 8 14 20 14 b, c
g 4 4 4 4 b, c
h 2 12 16 11 c
i 6 16 38 18 g, h
j 2 8 14 8 d, e
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 19

TERMS: REMINDER

EOT or EET = Earliest Occurrence/Event Time (or EFT as


earliest finish time)
EST = earliest starting time
LST or LET or LOT = latest starting/event/occurrence time
• Critical Path = The LONGEST time in which the entire
network can be completed
• Critical Time = The time of CP completion
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 20

EXPECTED TIMINGS
TE
20 d 35 EOT
2 6 35
20 15 LOT
j
a e 8
20 10
0 b f
1 0 20 3
20
21 14 7 43
43

10 g
c 4 18
i
10 h 24
4 14 11 5 25
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 21

EXPECTED TIMINGS
TE
20 d 35 EOT
2 6 35
20 15 LOT
j
a e 8
20 10
0 b f
1 0 20 3
20
21 14 7 43
43

10 g
c 4 18
i
10 h 24
4 14 11 5 25
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 22

SLACK

Slack = LOT – EOT: Time and slack for the network

Event LOT EOT Slack


1 0 0 0
2 20 20 0
3 21 20 1
4 14 10 4
5 25 24 1
6 35 35 0
7 43 43 0
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 23

SLACK
TE
20 d 35 EOT
2 6 35
20 15 LOT
j
a e 8
20 10
0 b f
1 0 20 3
20
21 14 7 43
43

10 g
c 4 18
i
10 h 24
4 14 11 5 25
CRITICAL PATH PROBLEM Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 24

Activity Optimistic Most Like Pessimistic Precedents

a Lay foundation 8 10 13 -
b Dig hole for scale 5 6 8 -

c Insert scale bases 13 15 21 b

d Erect frame 10 12 14 a, c
e Complete building 11 20 30 d

f Install scales 4 5 8 e
g Install display cases 2 3 4 e

h Put in office 4 6 10 g
equipment
i Finishing touches 2 3 4 h, f

Wanted: Critical Path; the slack time; expected completion time.


Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 25

CRITICAL PATH PROBLEM:


CALCULATE EXPECTED TIME
Activity Optimistic Most Like Pessimistic Expected

a Lay foundation 8 10 13 10.17


b Dig hole for scale 5 6 8 6.17

c Insert scale bases 13 15 21 15.67

d Erect frame 10 12 14 12.00


e Complete building 11 20 30 20.17

f Install scales 4 5 8 5.33


g Install display cases 2 3 4 3.00

h Put in office 4 6 10 6.33


equipment
i Finishing touches 2 3 4 3.00
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 26

NETWORK

10,12,14
0 a 21 d 33 e 53 f 62 i 65
1 0 8,10,13 2 21 4 33 5 53 4,5,8 7 62 2,3,4 8 65
11,20,30
b g
5,6,8 c 13,15,21 2,3,4 h 4,6,10

6 56
3 6 6 56
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 27

ET AND CRITICAL PATH

10.17 5.33
a d e f i
1 2 12.00
4 20.17
5 7 3.00
8
b g
6.17 c 3.00 h
15.67 6.33

3 6

Critical path in red


Expected time = 6.17 + 15.67 + 12 + 20.17 + 3 + 6.33 + 3 = 66.34 days