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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

CPM
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 2

Scheduling computations for arrow

networks
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 3
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 4

NETWORK PROBLEM

Activity Days Precedents

a Schedule of liabilities -
b Mail confirmation a
c Test pension plan a
d Vouch selected liabilities a
e Test accruals d
f Process confirmations b
g Reconcile interest c, e
h Verify debt compliance f
i Investigate balances g
j Review payments h, i

Wanted: the network, the CP, and slack times of activities

Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 5

NETWORK PROBLEM

Activity Days Precedents

a Schedule of liabilities 3 -
b Mail confirmation 15 a
c Test pension plan 5 a
d Vouch selected liabilities 60 a
e Test accruals 6 d
f Process confirmations 40 b
g Reconcile interest 10 c, e
h Verify debt compliance 7 f
i Investigate balances 6 g
j Review payments 12 h, i

Wanted: the network, the CP, and slack times of activities

Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 6

NETWORK SOLUTION

f
3 40 6 h
b 7 j
15 i 8 12 9
a c g
1 3
2 5 4 10 7 6
d e
60 6
5
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 7

NETWORK SOLUTION

slack

18 f 58
3 38 40 6 78 h
b 7 85 j 97
15 i 8 85 12 9 97
0 a 3 c 69 g 79
1 0 3
2 3 5 4 69 10 7 79
6
d e
60 6
63
5 63
Critical path
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 8
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 9
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 10
PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 12

When analysing and negotiating the project completion

time the PM should try to determine the probability that a
project will be completed by the suggested time, OR find
the completion time associated with a predetermined
level of risk.

There are statistical methods for doing this, which are

applicable if you know the risks for each activity.
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 13

CALCULATING TIMES

 Completion time is found using three time estimates:

 Optimistic (a), Pessimistic (b), and most likely (m), which are
expressions of the risk associated with the time required for
each activity
 On the distribution graph m is the mode, a is the estimation of
actual time so that the the actual time will be a or greater about
99 percent of time, and b is estimated such that about 99% of
the time the activity will have a duration of b or less
 Expected Time (TE) is found by: TE=(a + 4m + b)/6
 The method is based on BETA statistical distribution. TE is an
estimate of the mean of the distribution, as a weighted average of
a,b, and m with weight 1-4-1
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 14

EXPECTED TIME, TE

a m TE b
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 15

PRECEDENCES

Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Immediate predecessor

time time time activities
a 10 22 22 -
b 20 20 20 -
c 4 10 16 -
d 2 14 32 a
e 8 8 20 b, c
f 8 14 20 b, c
g 4 4 4 b, c
h 2 12 16 c
i 6 16 38 g, h
j 2 8 14 d, e
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 16

ACTIVITY ON ARROW (AOA)

EXAMPLE

d
2 6
j
a e

1 b f
3 7

g
c i
h
4 5
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 17

EXPECTED TIME
TE=(A + 4M + B)/6

Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected Immediate

time time time time (TE) predecessor
activities
a 10 22 22 -
b 20 20 20 -
c 4 10 16 -
d 2 14 32 a
e 8 8 20 b, c
f 8 14 20 b, c
g 4 4 4 b, c
h 2 12 16 c
i 6 16 38 g, h
j 2 8 14 d, e
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 18

EXPECTED TIME
TE=(A + 4M + B)/6

Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Expected Immediate

time time time time (TE) predecessor
activities
a 10 22 22 20 -
b 20 20 20 20 -
c 4 10 16 10 -
d 2 14 32 15 a
e 8 8 20 10 b, c
f 8 14 20 14 b, c
g 4 4 4 4 b, c
h 2 12 16 11 c
i 6 16 38 18 g, h
j 2 8 14 8 d, e
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 19

TERMS: REMINDER

EOT or EET = Earliest Occurrence/Event Time (or EFT as

earliest finish time)
EST = earliest starting time
LST or LET or LOT = latest starting/event/occurrence time
• Critical Path = The LONGEST time in which the entire
network can be completed
• Critical Time = The time of CP completion
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 20

EXPECTED TIMINGS
TE
20 d 35 EOT
2 6 35
20 15 LOT
j
a e 8
20 10
0 b f
1 0 20 3
20
21 14 7 43
43

10 g
c 4 18
i
10 h 24
4 14 11 5 25
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 21

EXPECTED TIMINGS
TE
20 d 35 EOT
2 6 35
20 15 LOT
j
a e 8
20 10
0 b f
1 0 20 3
20
21 14 7 43
43

10 g
c 4 18
i
10 h 24
4 14 11 5 25
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 22

SLACK

Event LOT EOT Slack

1 0 0 0
2 20 20 0
3 21 20 1
4 14 10 4
5 25 24 1
6 35 35 0
7 43 43 0
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 23

SLACK
TE
20 d 35 EOT
2 6 35
20 15 LOT
j
a e 8
20 10
0 b f
1 0 20 3
20
21 14 7 43
43

10 g
c 4 18
i
10 h 24
4 14 11 5 25
CRITICAL PATH PROBLEM Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 24

Activity Optimistic Most Like Pessimistic Precedents

a Lay foundation 8 10 13 -
b Dig hole for scale 5 6 8 -

c Insert scale bases 13 15 21 b

d Erect frame 10 12 14 a, c
e Complete building 11 20 30 d

f Install scales 4 5 8 e
g Install display cases 2 3 4 e

h Put in office 4 6 10 g
equipment
i Finishing touches 2 3 4 h, f

Wanted: Critical Path; the slack time; expected completion time.

Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 25

CRITICAL PATH PROBLEM:

CALCULATE EXPECTED TIME
Activity Optimistic Most Like Pessimistic Expected

a Lay foundation 8 10 13 10.17

b Dig hole for scale 5 6 8 6.17

d Erect frame 10 12 14 12.00

e Complete building 11 20 30 20.17

f Install scales 4 5 8 5.33

g Install display cases 2 3 4 3.00

h Put in office 4 6 10 6.33

equipment
i Finishing touches 2 3 4 3.00
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 26

NETWORK

10,12,14
0 a 21 d 33 e 53 f 62 i 65
1 0 8,10,13 2 21 4 33 5 53 4,5,8 7 62 2,3,4 8 65
11,20,30
b g
5,6,8 c 13,15,21 2,3,4 h 4,6,10

6 56
3 6 6 56
Dr. Nadeem Ehsan 27

10.17 5.33
a d e f i
1 2 12.00
4 20.17
5 7 3.00
8
b g
6.17 c 3.00 h
15.67 6.33

3 6

Critical path in red

Expected time = 6.17 + 15.67 + 12 + 20.17 + 3 + 6.33 + 3 = 66.34 days