Introduction to measurement

uncertainty

Science
for a safer world

1
Overview

• What is measurement uncertainty?

• Why is measurement uncertainty important?
• The ISO approach
• General approach to evaluating uncertainty
• Rules for converting and combining uncertainties
Measurement uncertainty

ISO definition
“A parameter, associated with the result of a
measurement, that characterises the dispersion of the
values that could reasonably be attributed to the
measurand”

The part of the result after the ±

What information does it give?

10

The concentration of the acid is:

20

0.102 ± 0.0016 mol dm-3

30

40

50
The concentration is between
0.1004 and 0.1036 mol dm-3

A RANGE containing the TRUE VALUE

Why do we need to know the uncertainty?

• Indication of quality of results

– are results “fit for purpose”?
• Interpretation of results
– are these results really different?
– what confidence can be placed in decisions based on results?
• Knowledge of the uncertainty should
– improve understanding of test methods
– give confidence to users of results
– increase acceptability of results
… For these reasons, uncertainty estimation is a requirement
of ISO/IEC 17025
Where does uncertainty come from?

Random and systematic effects

• Random effects
– cause results to vary from one measurement to the next
– cannot be correct for
– can usually be reduced by increasing the number of
measurements and reporting an average
• Systematic effects
– remain constant over a series of measurements
– cause results to be consistently higher (or lower) than expected
– can be corrected for (but not reduced by averaging)
• The effect of gross errors (mistakes!) is not included in
an uncertainty estimate
ISO recommendations

• Uncertainties arise from several contributions

• Two ways of evaluating uncertainty components
– statistical (Type A) and otherwise (Type B)
– should be treated in the same way
• Express as standard deviations
• Combine by “.. the usual method for the combination of
variances”
• Multiply by a (stated) factor if required
– coverage factor (k)
Evaluating uncertainty – general
procedure
Step 1
Be clear about what Write down equation used to calculate result.
is being measured

Step 2
Parameters appearing in the equation will
Identify the sources contribute to the uncertainty. What other factors
of uncertainty will influence the result?
Estimate the size of each uncertainty
Step 3 component (the effect it will have on the result).
Quantify uncertainty Convert all estimates to the same form
components
(standard uncertainty, u).
Step 4
Combine using rules for combination of
Combine the
uncertainties variances. u  u 2  u 2  u 2  ....
c 1 2 3

Step 5 Multiply the combined uncertainty by a coverage

Expand combined
factor to obtain an expanded uncertainty. U = k.uc
uncertainty
Uncertainty components

• Uncertainty in a result will arise from several contributions

• Uncertainty contributions combined to give a “total” uncertainty
– uncertainty components must be expressed in the same form to allow
combination
– express as standard deviations => standard uncertainty (u)

• BUT…uncertainty information comes in different forms so may need

to convert
– standard deviations - use as is
– confidence intervals - convert
– expanded uncertainties - convert
– stated ranges - convert
u(x) from a standard deviation s

• For uncertainties associated with single results

– use the standard deviation s
• For uncertainties associated with a mean of n
observations
– convert to standard deviation of the mean

s/ n
u(x) from a confidence interval

• Example:
“Concentration = 1000 mg L-1 ± 3 mg L-1
with a level of confidence of not less than 95%”

t s
x
n

• Rule:
Divide the half-range (3 mg L-1) by 1.96
u(x) from an expanded uncertainty

• Example:
“The concentration is 1000 ± 3 mg L-1 where the
reported uncertainty is an expanded uncertainty,
calculated using a coverage factor of k=2, which gives a
level of confidence of approximately 95%”
• Rule:
Divide the expanded uncertainty by the coverage factor,
k
U( x )
u x  
k
u(x) from a stated range

A range (±a) is given without an Assume rectangular distribution

estimate of the distribution or divide a by 3 2a
confidence level. No reason to
a
expect values close to mean are u x  
more likely than values at the 3
extremes.

A range (±a) is given without an

Assume triangular distribution
estimate of the distribution or
divide a by 6 2a
confidence level. Values close to
mean are more likely than values a
at the extremes. u x  
6
Combination of uncertainties (1)

• Addition or subtraction
y = a + b - c +…..
Uncertainties are combined as standard deviations

u( y )  u(a)2  u(b)2  u(c )2  ....

ua2  ub2
ub

ua
Combination of uncertainties (2)

• Product or quotient

ab
y
c
• Uncertainties are expressed as relative standard
deviations

2 2 2
u( y )  u (a )   u ( b )   u (c ) 
      
y  a   b   c 
 Combination of uncertainties (3)

• Example: 0.05 g pure chemical dissolved in water and made up to

50 mL in a volumetric flask
– what is the uncertainty in the concentration of the solution (g mL-1)?

Parameter Value Standard uncertainty u(xi) Relative uncertainty

xi u(xi)/xi
Mass of
0.05 g 0.00020 g 0.004
chemical (m)
Volume (v) 50 mL 0.066 mL 0.00132

u c 
2 2
m  0.0002   0.066 
c 0.001 g mL-1      0.00421
v c  0.05   50 

0.00421  0.001 =
u(c)
4.2 x 10-6 g mL-1
Expanded uncertainty U

uc -> 68%

U = 2uc -> 95%

U = k.uc
Summary

• Measurement uncertainty is a range containing the

true value
– has contributions from all significant factors that cause the
result to vary
• The ISO Guide describes the principles of uncertainty
estimation:
– uncertainty components are expressed as standard deviations
– combined according to mathematical rules
– combined uncertainty may require to be increased by a factor
(expanded uncertainty)