Chapter 11

The Concept of
Reliability
Reliability is a probability that a product will perform
its intended function satisfactorily for a prescribed life
under certain stated environmental conditions.
Four Factor of reliability
1. Numeral value – is the probability that the product
will function satisfactorily during a particular time.
2. Intended function of the product – a product is
design for applications and are expected to perform
those application.
3. Intended Life of the product – how long the product
would last.
4. Environment conditions
Achieving Reliability
Increase emphasis is being given to product reliability. One of
the reasons for this emphasis is due to Consumer Protection Act of
1972. another reason is the fact that product are more complicated.
An additional , reason for the increased emphasis on
reliability is due to automation; people are in many cases , not able
to manually operate the product if an automated component does
not function.

System Reliability
As a product become more complex ( have more
components ) , the chance that they will not function increases.
Methods of arranging components affects the reliability of the
entire system.
Components can be arranged in series ,parallel, or a
combination.
Figure 11-1 Methods of arranging components
When components are arranged in series, the reliability of
the system is the product of individuals components.
For the series arrangement of Figure 11-1 (a), the
multiplication theorem is applicable and the series reliability,

Rs = (RA)(RB)(RC)
= (0.995)(0.750)(0.999)
= 0.716

Note that RA,RB,RC are the probability (PA,PB,PC) that

components A,B,C will work. As components are added to the
series , the system reliability decreases. Also, the system
reliability is always less than its lowest value.
For Parallel arrangement in Figure 11-1 (b), the system
parallel,
Rs, is calculated as follows:

Rs = 1 – (1 – RI ) (1 – RJ )
= 1 –( 1 – 0.750) (1 – 0.840)
= 0.960

Note that (1 – RI) and (1 – RJ) are the probability that

components I and J will not function . As the number of
components in parallel increases, the reliability increases.
The reliability for a parallel arrangement of components is
greater than the reliability of components is greater than the
reliability of the individuals components.
Most complex products are a combination of series and
parallel arrangement of components. This is illustrated in
figure 11-1 (c),
Wherein part B is replaced by the parallel components , part I
and part J . The reliability of the system ,Rs , is calculated as
follows:

Rs = (RA)(RIJ)(RC)
= (0.95)(.96)(.99)
= 0.90

Most products are comprised of series and parallel system,

there are complex systems, such as a Wheatstone bridge or
standby redundancy, which are more difficult to analyze.
Important Aspect of Reliabilty

1. Design is the most important aspect of reliability. The fewer the

number of components, the greater the reliability.
If a system has 50 components in series and each components has a
reliability of 0.996 the system reliability is
Rs = Rᶯ = 0.996⁵⁰ = 0.605
This example may not be realistic, it does support the fact that the
fewer the components , the greater the reliability.
2.Production is the second most important aspect of reliability.
3.Transportation is the third aspect of reliability of the product to
the customer. The reliability of the product of the point of use can be
greatly affected by the type of handling the product receives in transit.
Good packaging techniques and shipment evaluation are essential.
4.Maintenance
Failure rate can be estimated from test data by use of the formula

number of test failure r

α est = ----------------------------- = --------------------------------------
sum of test times or cycle ∑t + ( n – r ) T

Where
α = failure rate, which is the probability that a unit will fail in a stated unit of
time of cycle.
r= Number of test failure
t= test time for a failed item
n =number of item tested
T = terminated time

The formula is applicable for the time terminated without a replacement. it is

modified for the time terminated with replacement and failure terminated
situation.
TIME TERMINATED WITHOUT REPLSCEMENT
Determine the failure rate for an item that has the test of 9 items
terminated at the end of 22 hours. Our of the items failed after 4, 12, 15,
and 21hr, respectively five items were still operating at the end of 22h

r 4
α est = -------------------- = -----------------------
∑t + ( n – r ) T (4+12+15+21) + (9-4) 22
= 0.025

TIME TERMINATED WITH EXAMPLE

Determine the failure rate for 50 items that are tested for 15h. when the
failure occurs, the items is replaced with another unit. at the end of
15h, 6 of other items had failed.

r 6
α est = ------- = -------- = 0.008
∑t 50(15)
EXAMPLE PROBLEM:
Determine the failure rate for 6 items that are tested to
failure. Test cycles are 1025, 1550, 2232, 5608, and 7918.

λ=r/∑t
= 6/1025+1550+2232+5608+7918
= 0.00027
When the failure rate is constant, the relationship between
mean life and failure rate is as follows:

θ= 1/λ (for constant failure rate)

w/r:
θ= mean life or Mean Time Between
Failures (MTBF)
EXAMPLE PROBLEM:
Determine the mean life for the three previous example problems.
Assume that there is a constant failure rate.

θ= 1/λ= 1/0.025= 40 h
θ= 1/λ= 1/0.008= 125 h
θ= 1/λ= 1/0.00027= 3704 cycles
LIFE-HISTORY CURVE
sometimes referred to as the “bathtub” curve, is a comparison of
failure rate with time.
3 Distinct Phases:
1. Debugging Phase
2. Chance Failure Phase
3. Wear-out Phase
1. Debugging Phase
- also called the burn-in or infant-mortality phase, is characterized by
marginal and short-life parts that cause a rapid decrease in the failure rate.
The Weibull distribution with shaping parameters less than, ß < 1, is used
to describe the occurrence of failures.
 2. Chance Failure Phase
Is shown in the figure as a horizontal line, thereby making the failure
rate constant. The exponential distribution and the Weibull
distribution with shape parameters equal to 1 are used to describe this
phase. When the curve increases or decreases, a Weibull shape
parameter greater or less than 1 can be used. Reliability studies and
sampling plans are, for the most part, concerned with the chance
failure phase. The lower the failure rate, the better the product.
3. Wear-out Phase
Which is depicted by a sharp rise in the failure rate. Usually the
normal distribution is the one that best describes the wear-out phase.
The Weibull distribution with shape parameters greater than 1, ß > 1,
can be used depending on the type of wear-out distribution.
An example will illustrate the construction of the Life-History
curve.
EXAMPLE PROBLEM:
Determine the life-history curve for the test data in cycles for 1000
items. Assume that failure occurred at ½ the cycle range and survivors
went to the end of the cycle range. Data are
No. of No. Of No. Of Calculations
Cycles Failures Survivors Λ= r/∑t

0-10 347 653 347/((5)(347) + (10)(653))= 0.0420

11-20 70 583 70/((15)(70) + (20)(583))= 0.0055

21-30 59 524 59/((25)(59) + (30)(524))= 0.0034

31-40 53 471 53/((35)(53) + (40)(471))= 0.0026

41-50 51 420 51/((45)(51) + (50)(420))= 0.0022

51-60 60 360 60/((55)(60) + (60)(360))= 0.0024

61-70 79 281 79/((65)(79) + (70)(281))= 0.0032

71-80 92 189 92/((75)(92) + (80)(189))= 0.0043

81-90 189 0 189/((85)(180) + (90)(0)= 0.0118

Normal Failure Analysis
While the normal curve is applicable to the wear-out phase,
the Weibull is usually used. From Figure 11-2(b), the
formula for reliability is

However, the integral, (see Fig. 11-2(a)),is the area

under the curve to the left of time, t, and is obtained from
Appendix Table A. Thus, our equation becomes

Rt= 1.0 –P(t)

w/r:
Rt= reliability at time t
P(t)= probability of failure or area of the normal
curve to the left of time t
EXAMPLE PROBLEM:
A 75 W light bulb has a mean life of 750 h with a standard
deviation of 50 h. What is the reliability at 850 h?

Z= X – θ/ σ = 850- 750/50= 2.0

From Table A, P(t)= 0.9773
Rt=850 = 1.0 – P(t)
= 1.0 – 0.9773
= 0.0127 or 1.27 %

On the average, a light bulb will last 8. 50 h. 1.27 % of time.

Stated another way, 127 light bulbs out of 10,000 will last
850 h or more.
EXPONENTIAL FAILURE RATE
The exponential distribution and the Weibull
distribution with shape parameter 1 are used to
describe the constant failure rate. Knowing the failure
rate and its reciprocal, the mean life, we can calculate
the reliability using the formula

Rt= ℮^-t/θ
w/r:
t = time or cycles
θ= mean life
EXAMPLE PROBLEM
Determine the reliability at t=30 for the example problem
where the mean life for a constant failure rate was 40 h.
Rt= ℮^-t/θ
= e^-30/40
= .472
What is the reliability at 10 h?

Rt= ℮^-t/θ
= e^-10/40
= .453
What is the reliability at 50 h?
Rt= ℮^-t/θ
= e^-50/40
= .287
WEIBULL FAILURE ANALYSIS
The Weibull distribution can be used for the debugging phase (β <
1), the chance failure phase (β = 1), and wear-out phase (β > 1).
From Figure 11-2(b) the formula for the reliability is

Rt= ℮^-(t/θ)^β
w/r:
β= the Weibull slope
EXMPLE PROBLEM
The failure pattern of a new type of battery fits the Weibull
distribution with slope 4.2 and the mean life 103 h. Determine its
reliability at 120 h.

Rt= ℮^-(t/θ)^β
= e^-(120/103)^4.2
= 0.150
 THE OC CURVE CONSTRUCTION
The Operating Characteristic (OC) curve is constructed in a
manner similar to that given in Chapter 9. However, the fraction
nonconforming, po, is replaced by the mean life θ.
Chapter 9. If lots were submitted with a mean life of 5000 h, the Pa
is 0.697 using the sampling plan described by the OC Curve of
Figure 11-4.
An example problem for a constant failure rate will be used to
illustrate the construction. A lot-by-lot acceptance sampling with
replacement is as follows:
Select a sample of 16 units from a lot and test each item for 600 h.
If 2 or less items fail, accept the lot ; if 3 or more items fail, do not
accept the lot. In symbols, the plan is n=16, T=600, c=2, r=3.
When an item fails, it is replaced by another one from the lot. The
first step in the construction of the curve is to assume some values
for the mean life, θ. These values are converted to the failure rate,
λ, as shown in the second column of Table 11-1. The expected
average number of failures for this sampling plan is obtained by
nT by the failure rate as shown in the third column of the table.
The value nTλ performs the same function as the value of npo.
Values for the probability of acceptance of the lot are found in the
Table C of the Appendix for c=2. Typical calculations are as
follows (assume θ=2000).
 λ=1/θ=1/2000=0.0005
nTλ= (16)(600)(0.0005)=4.80

From Table C of the Appendix for nTλ= 4.80

and c=2, Pa= 0.142
Since this OC curve assumes a constant failure rate, the exponential
distribution is applicable. The Poisson distribution is used to
construct the OC curve since it approximates the exponential.
Because of the constant failure rate, there are other sampling plan
that will have the same OC curve. Some these are:

n= 4 T= 2400 h c= 2
n= 8 T= 1200 hc= 2
n= 24 T= 400 hc= 2

Any combination of n and T values that gives 9600 with c= 2 will

have the same OC curve.
OC curves for reliability sampling plans are also plotted as a function of
θ/θo, which is the actual mean life/ acceptable mean life. When the
OC curve is constructed in this manner, all OC curves for life tests with
or without replacement have one point in common. This point is the
Producer’s risk α and θ/θo = 1.0.
LIFE AND RELIABILITY TESTING PLANS

Life tests are of the following three types:

Failure- Terminated. These life-test plans are terminated

when a preassigned number of failures occurs to the
sample. Acceptance criteria for the lot are based on the
accumulated item test times when the test is accumulated.
Time- Terminated. This type of life-test sampling plan is
terminated when the sample obtains a predetermined test
time. Acceptance criteria for the lot are based on the
number of failure in the sample during the test time.
Sequential. Life-testing plan whereby neither the number
of failures nor the time required to reach a decision are
Testing may be conducted with replacement of a failed unit
or without replacement. With replacement occurs when a
failure is replaced with another unit. Test time continues to
be accumulated with the new sample unit. This situation is
possible when there is a constant failure rate and the replaced
unit has an equal chance of failure. The without-replacement
situation occurs when the failure is not replaced.
Tests are based on one or more of the following
characteristics:
1. Mean life- the average life of the product.
2. Failure rate- the percentage of failures per unit time or
number of cycles.
3. Hazard rate- the instantaneous failure rate at a
specified time. This varies with age except in the special
case of a constant failure rate wherein the failure rate
and hazard rate are the same. The Weibull distribution
is applicable and the hazard rate increases with age if
 than 1 and decreases with age if the shape parameter is less
than 4. Reliable life- the life beyond which some specified
portion of the items in the will survive. The Weibull
distribution and the normal distribution as they pertain to the
wear-out phase are applicable.
Handbook H108
Quality Control and Reliability Handbook H108 gives
sampling procedures and tables for life and reliability testing.
Sampling plans in the handbook are based on the exponential
distribution. The handbook provides for three different types
of tests: failure-terminated, time- terminated, and sequential.
Since the handbook is over 70 pages long, only one of the plans
will be illustrated. This plan is a time-terminated, with-
replacement, mean-life plan which is a common plan. There
are three methods of obtaining this plan.
1. Stipulated producer’s risk, consumer’s risk, sample
size. Determine the time-terminated, with-
replacement, mean-life sampling plan, where the
producer’s risk,α,of rejecting lots with mean life
θo=900 h is 0.05 and the customer’s risk,β, of
accepting lots with mean life

θo=300 h is 0.10. The ratio θ₁/θ₀ is

θ₁= 300 = 0.333

θ₀ 900
For each code letter. A, B, C, and E, there is a table
to determine the non-acceptance number and the value of
the ratio T/θ₀, where T is the test time. Thus, for code B-8,
the non-acceptance number r is 8. the value of T/θ₀ is a
function of sample size.
 For the life-test plans, the sample size depends on the
relative cost of placing large numbers of units of products on
test and on the expected length of time the life test must
continue in order to determine acceptability of the lots.
Increasing sample size will cut the average time required to
determine acceptability but on the other hand, will increase
the cost due to placing more units of product on test. For
the example problem, the multiple 3r is selected which gives
a sample size n= 3(8)= 24. the corresponding value of T/θ₀=
0.166, which gives a test time T of

T= 0.166(θ₀)
=0.166(900)
=149.4 or 149 h

2. Stipulated producer’s risk, rejection number, and sample

size. Determine the time-terminated, with-replacement,
 mean-life sampling plan where the producer’s risk of not
accepting lots with mean life θ₀= 1200 h is 0.05, the non-
acceptance number is 5, and the sample size is 10, or 2r.
Thus, using Table 11- 4, the value for T/θ₀= 0.197 and the
value for T is

T=0.197( θ₀)
= 0.197(1200)
=236.4 or 236 h
3. Stipulated producer’s risk, consumer’s risk, and, test time.
Determine the time-terminated, with-replacement, mean-
life sampling plan w/c is not to exceed 500 h and which will
accept a lot with mean life of 10000h (θ₀) at least 90 % of the
time (β=0.10) but will not accept a lot with mean life of 2000
h (θ₁) about 95% of the time (α=0.05)
first, calculate the two ratios θ₁/θ and T/θ₀ :

θ₁ = 2000 = 1
θ₀ 10,000 5

T = 500 = 1
θ₀ 10,000 20
Using the values of θ₁/θ₀, T/θ₀, α, and β, the values of r
and n are obtained from Table 11-5 and are n= 27 and r= 4.
The sampling plan is to select a sample of 27 items from
a lot. If the fourth failure occurs before the termination
time of 500 h, the lot is not accepted; if the fourth failure
still has not occurred after 500 h, the lot is accepted .
AVAILABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY
For long-lasting products and services such as
refrigerators, electric power lines, and front-line services,
the time related factors of availability , reliability, and
maintainability are interrelated.
Availability is a time-related factor that measures the
ability of a product or service to perform its designated
function. The product or service is available when it is in
the operational state, which includes active and standby
use. A calculator is operational (uptime) when it is being
used to perform calculations and when it is being carried in
a book bag. Availability can be quantified by the ratio:
A = Uptime = MTBF
Uptime + Downtime MTBT+MDT
Maintainability is the ease with which preventative and
corrective maintenance on a product or service can be
achieved. One of the best times to improve maintainability
is in the design phase of a product or service. Production
processes rely on total productivity maintenance to improve
maintainability. Maintainability uses number of different
figures of merit such as mean time to repair, mean time to
service, repair hours per 1000 number of operating hours,
preventative maintenance cost, and downtime
probability.
According to Professor Mulder, keeping maintainability low
may be a more cost effective method of keeping availability
high than concentrating on reliability.
 THANK YOU !!!!

PRESENTED BY:
MA. LUISA R. GUASIS
MARITONIE CHRISTINE JULL GABICA
JOLLY ANN S. MAGAT