Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
• Finance
• Marketing
• Organizational Behavior/Personnel Management
• Accounting
• Management Information System
• Management science/Operations Management
• Strategy
• International Business
The Importance of Management Science
• Management science
–The discipline of applying advanced analytical
methods to help make better decisions.
–Devoted to solving managerial-type problems using
quantitative models
• Applications of Management Science
–Forecasting, capital budgeting, portfolio analysis,
capacity planning, scheduling, marketing, inventory
management, project management, and production
planning.
Successful Applications of Management Science
Successful Applications of Management Science (cont’d)
Problem Solving Approaches
• Managers tend to use a • Managers tend to use a
qualitative approach to quantitative approach
problem solving when when
1. The problem is fairly 1. The problem is
simple. complex.
2. The problem is 2. The problem is not
familiar. familiar.
3. The costs involved 3. The costs involved
are not great. are substantial.
4. Enough time is
available to analyze
the problem.
Advantages of the Quantitative Approach
• Directs attention to the essence of an analysis:
to solve a specific problem.
• Results in more objective decisions than purely
qualitative analysis.
• Incorporates advances in computational
technologies to managerial problem-solving.
Models
• A Model
–An abstraction of reality. It is a simplified, and often
idealized, representation of reality.
• Examples : an equation, an outline, a diagram, and a map
–By its very nature a model is incomplete.
• Mathematical models
–Use numbers and algebraic symbols
–Decision variables
–Uncontrollable variables
Deterministic versus Probabilistic Models
• Deterministic models
–Used for problems in which information is known with
a high degree of certainty.
–Used to determine an optimal solution to the problem.
• Probabilistic models
–Used when it cannot be determined precisely what
values (requiring probabilities) will occur (usually in
the future).
The Management Science Approach
Example - Breakeven Analysis
• Breakeven analysis (cost-volume analysis)
–Is concerned with the interrelationship of costs,
volume (quantity of output or sales), and profit.
• The Break-Even Point (BEP)
–The volume for which total revenue and total cost are
equal.
–The dividing line between profit and loss; sales higher
than the break-even point will result in a profit, while
sales that is lower than the break-even point will result
in a loss.
–Where you get “out of the red.”
Breakeven Analysis
• Components of Break-Even Analysis
–Volume: the level of output of a machine, department,
or organization, or the quantity of sales.
–Revenue: the income generated by the sale of a
product. Total revenue = revenue per unit (selling price
per unit) multiplied by units (volume) sold.
–Costs: costs that must be taken into account
• Fixed costs are not related to the volume of output.
• Variable costs increase and decrease with output.
Total Revenue Increases Linearly as Volume Increases
Fixed Costs
Total Variable Cost
Total Cost
Profit and the Break-Even Point
Profit
Example
The Classical Areas of
Management Science
• Linear Program
• Network Model
• Decision Analysis
• Queuing Theory
• Simulation
• Project Management
Linear Program :
Example
The most common goal of queuing system design is to minimize the combined
costs of providing capacity and customer waiting. An alternative goal is to
design systems that attain specific performance criteria (e.g., keep the average
waiting time to under five minutes
Operating Characteristics
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
수요를 위한 보충기간을 위한
주 기초재고 수요량 기말재고 재주문점 보충 기간(주) 입고량b)
난수 난수
1 60 12 5 55 0
2 55 64 7 48 0
3 48 09 5 43 0
4 43 82 8 35 35 11 1
5 35 23 6 29 0 35
6 64 51 7 57 0
7 57 29 6 51 0
8 51 10 5 46 0
9 46 56 7 39 0
10 39 28 6 33 35 96 6
Example - 재고관리 Simulation
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
수요를 위한 보충기간을 위
주 기초재고 수요량 기말재고 재주문점 보충 기간(주) 입고량b)
난수 한 난수
11 33 42 6 27 0
12 27 05 5 22 0
13 22 45 6 16 0
14 16 62 7 9 0
15 9 34 6 3 0
16 3 86 8 -5 35 57 2 35
17 30 18 5 25 0
18 25 22 6 19 0 35
19 54 75 8 46 0
20 46 16 5 41 0
21 41 52 7 34 35 28 1
22 34 60 7 27 0 35
23 62 93 9 53 0
24 53 38 6 47 0
25 47 94 9 38 0
Example - 재고관리 Simulation
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
수요를 위한 보충기간을 위
주 기초재고 수요량 기말재고 재주문점 보충 기간(주) 입고량b)
난수 한 난수
31 37 57 7 30 35 33 1
32 30 19 5 25 0 35
33 60 48 6 54 0
34 54 99 9 45 0
35 45 00 4 41 0
36 41 68 7 34 35 21 1
37 34 63 7 27 0 35
38 62 15 5 57 0
39 57 53 7 50 0
40 50 29 6 44 0
Define the
problem
Set objectives
Develop model
Gather data
Validate model
Design
experiments
Run simulations
Analyze and
interpret results
Advantages of Simulation
1. It is particularly well-suited for problems that are difficult
or impossible to solve mathematically.
2. It allows an analyst or decision maker to experiment
with system behavior in a controlled environment
instead of in a real-life setting that has inherent risks.
3. It enables a decision maker to compress time in order
to evaluate the long-term effects of various alternatives.
4. It can serve as a mode for training decision makers by
enabling them to observe the behavior of a system
under different conditions.
Limitations of Simulation
• Probabilistic simulation results are approximations,
rather than optimal solutions.
• Good simulations can be costly and time-consuming to
develop properly; they also can be time-consuming to
run, especially in cases in which a large number of
trials are indicated.
• A certain amount of expertise is required in order to
design a good simulation, and this may not be readily
available.
• Analytical techniques may be available that can
provide better answers to problems.
Project Management :
What is Project ?
A Done
Build B
B Done
Build C
C Done
On time!
Build D
Ship
직전선행활동
Activity 내역 책임자
직전 선행활동
Activity 내역 책임자
Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) Responsibility
Network Diagram I
A Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson
B Select site and do site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. A F K A Adams
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. B Taylor
E Bring utilities to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing,
Startsupport staff, C
maintenance,
G Finish
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital. D Taylor
I B
Develop an information D
system. H J A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson
E
St. Adolf’s Hospital
Immediate
Activity Description I Predecessor(s) Responsibility
Completion Time
15
A Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson
B Select site and do site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. A F KA Adams
12 10
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. 6B Taylor
E Bring utilities to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing, C G
Startsupport staff, maintenance, Finish
10 35
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital.
B D H JD Taylor
I Develop an information
9 system.
10 40 4A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson
E
24
Other Areas of
Management Science
• Game Theory
• Markov Analysis
• Nonlinear Program
• Multi-criteria Decision Making Model
• Scheduling
• Dynamic Program