Wilkins,

A Zurn Company
SUBMITTED BY-
GROUP- 6
• NIDHI AGARWAL
• NEETA KUMARI
• NASREEN RAHAT
• TUSHAR CHUGH
• NEHA SHEENAM
• SUJATA KOTHAVADE
Background

COMPANY CUSTOMER CONTEXT

• Zurn industries acquired • Retail sector Determining the process
Wilkins in 1971
• In 1998 Zurn merged with • Private and Institutional of forecasting demand
U.S. Industries Bath and sector
Plumbing Products Co. and • Commercial sector
changed its name to Jacuzzi
Brands
• High-quality products for
plumbing, municipal
waterworks, fire production
• They have 2 key products-
Pressure Vacuum Breakers
and Fire Valves
Current Forecasting Method of Wilkins

 Involves a Forecast Master and a Planning Bill.

 Organizes its products into product families and has a total of 25 of these
product families in Forecast Master.
 The demand for each week is calculated and an estimate of the
demand for the upcoming quarters is made.
 The Forecasting Master is accompanied by a Planning Bill that comprises
of 5 essential elements.
 Approach

 The two products PVB and Fire Valves have distinct demand patterns and so their forecasting
methods should be different.

Demand Pattern for PVB Demand Pattern for Fire Valve

140,000 700

120,000 600

100,000 500

80,000 400

60,000 300

40,000 200

20,000 100

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Planning Bill at Wilkin

 Each product belonging to a product family has a sales history

 An estimate is calculated on the average amount of products sold per
day in each quarter and for the last four quarters.
 A prediction is made concerning the mean daily sales of each product
for the next full year.
 The forecast of the family product is distributed among each product
according to a percent of sales and from this; an estimate is made of
potential future sales.
 A projection is held on the yearly sales for each product in a family.
Problem Statement

 To find a method for forecasting sales, by using statistical analysis taking

into account both the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the
influencing factors.
 Issues that have to be catered-
• Ease of using forecasting process
• Reliability of the sales forecast
• Impact of occasional price promotions
• Use of economic information to facilitate forecasts
• Methods to forecast demand of new product
Recommendations

 PVB
This product is dependent upon the external environmental factors-
unemployment, interest rates and housing starters, along with the various
qualitative factors. Hence, regression analysis to forecast sales figures for each
quarter is recommended
 Fire Valves
Current forecasting method is appropriate for this product since the statistical
dependency of the sale of fire valves on external factors was found to be
insignificant
THANK YOU