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# Wilkins, A Zurn

Company: Demand
Forecasting
Group 4

## Kriti Nagori – PGP09198

Neha Singh – PGP09212
Nidhi Gupta – PGP09214
Pranay Banga – PGP09218
Shivam Gaur – PGP09234
Tanu – PGP09242
Wilkins Regulatory Company specialises in producing and selling high quality products for plumbing, fire
production, municipal waterworks and Irrigation customer markets

2 key products are: Pressure Vacuum Breakers (PVB) and the Fire Valves

The sales experienced growth that surpassed the rate of the industry

Several factors affect the future demand of Wilkins products, one of which is commercial and
institutional construction activities.

Seasonality, new building initiations, the actual construction of homes and finally the product and price
promotions are all key factors that play a big part when it comes to future demand forecasting.
Planning Bill
5 important components of Planning bill are:
First, the planning bill contains the sales history for each product within the
family
Second, for the last four quarters, the planning bill calculates the average
number of units sold within that product family each day within each quarter
Third, the planning bill contains their projection on the average daily sales for
that family that they think we will sell in the next 12 months
Fourth, they disaggregate the family forecast into each product based on the per
cent of sales of the product family
Projection is held on the yearly sales for each product in a family
Critique of current forecasting
method
• Seasonal variations are not taken into consideration while they are
aware of it
• Although their forecasts are annually and quarterly, they derive weekly
and daily unit sales
• The quarterly forecasts are not based on any mathematical reasoning
but simply on judgment
• The forecasted sales are overestimated and would result in excessive
finished goods inventory
• It doesn’t take into account new products, because of the lack of
historical data
Decision Problem

Evaluate the current forecasting methods and try to find more reliable
methods for demand forecasting
Seasonality of PVB Seasonality of FV
Correlation between Actual sales and Unemployment rates, Bank Prime Loan and New housings

For PVB

Worksheet
Thank you