PRABANDHAN 2019

“SUPERSTORE INTERNATIONAL”

TEAM: Indian SPY

(Lal Bahadur Shastri Institute of Management, Delhi)

1 Ashirwad Kumar Singh

2 S. Shiva Koteshwar
3 Vatsala Vatsyayana
Ans -1
TOTAL “MONTHLY” SALES (Jan, 2014 – Dec, 2017)
140,000.00

120,000.00

100,000.00
SALES (₹)

80,000.00

60,000.00

40,000.00

20,000.00

0.00

TIMELINE
The “Order Date” data in the given dataset was sorted A-Z (Older to Newer) and the corresponding “Sales” figure was added month wise (Using Pivot Table in MS
Excel) and it was plotted. The above figure is a times series (monthly) data for “Sales” from January 2014 to December 2017. The forecasting for “Monthly Sales”
for next three years have done in the forthcoming slides.
Ans -1) …. Contd.
DECOMPOSED “MONTHLY SALES” (Jan, 2014 – Dec, 2017)

Seasonality: Yes

Trend: Exponential

Residual: Yes

Upon decomposition of “Monthly Sales” times series data, It was observed that it has all the three components- trend, seasonality & residuals. Keeping in mind that it had a “Multiplicative”
model (because observed trend was exponential), It was decided to first convert “Monthly Sales” data into “Log(Monthly_Sales)” data and then carry out “HOLT’S WINTER EXPONENTIAL
FORECASTING. The forecasted values for next three years have been presented in the form of tables (in next slide)
Ans -1) …. Contd.
Log(Monthly_Sales) Forecasts from ETS(A,A,A)

Mean
80 % C.I
(Lower Limit)
95 % C.I
(Lower Limit)

The above figure represents a 3-Year forecast for “Log(Monthly_Sales) data. It was obtained using “Holt’s Winter Forecasting Method”. The RSME (Root Mean Square
Error) for the above model was 0.49 & MAPE = 3.198 , which clearly makes the model a good one. Also, the forecasted values were converted into usual values by
taking “Anti Log”. The values so found have been tabulated below. The year 2018 (Jan-Dec) will have a forecasted “Sales” of ₹ 7,36,400.33, the year 2019 (Jan-Dec) will
have a forecasted “Sales” of ₹ 8,47,671.30 and the year 2020 will have a forecasted “Sales” of ₹ 9,75,755.47 (All the forecasted values are “Mean” values shown in the
above figure and converting them by taking “Anti Log”)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC TOTAL
FORECAST

2018 ₹ 14,995.19 ₹ 24,161.39 ₹ 67,018.27 ₹ 48,357.46 ₹ 58,781.55 ₹ 52,029.77 ₹ 56,003.50 ₹ 50,152.28 ₹ 1,19,124.20 ₹ 62,062.60 ₹ 1,24,798.20 ₹ 58,915.92 ₹ 7,36,400.33
2019 ₹ 17,260.98 ₹ 27,812.20 ₹ 77,144.81 ₹ 55,664.34 ₹ 67,663.52 ₹ 59,891.53 ₹ 64,465.69 ₹ 57,730.35 ₹ 1,37,124.01 ₹ 71,440.33 ₹ 1,43,655.36 ₹ 67,818.18 ₹ 8,47,671.30
2020 ₹ 19,869.14 ₹ 32,014.66 ₹ 88,801.48 ₹ 64,075.28 ₹ 77,887.56 ₹ 68,941.22 ₹ 74,206.54 ₹ 66,453.48 ₹ 1,57,843.61 ₹ 82,235.05 ₹ 1,65,361.86 ₹ 78,065.59 ₹ 9,75,755.47
Ans-2

Ans 1

This is a TABLEAU chart depicting the least profitable areas of business , as we can see “Tables and bookcases” and “supplies” contribute to losses and the
company should divest from these subcategories. While the Category “ TECHNOLOGY” is the most profitable with profit contribution of 145,456 and
“OFFICE SUPPLIES” being second most profitable with profit of 122,492
Ans 2) ….continued

Figure2

Figure 2 depicts the most profitable regions based on profit; West and East contribute the
largest to the profit and to further segment the market California(West) and New York
(East) are the major profit contributors shown in Figure 1

Figure1
Ans - 3

The Heat Map depicts the most profitable customers and their profit shares ( the size and the intensity of the color depicts the major profit shares,
thereby these are the customers the company should focus on. The second bubble chart depicts the most sellable product as per the profits which is
CANON imageCLASS 2200 ADVANCED copier.
Ans – 3) … contd.

The advertising budget of USD 5500 should be further divided into two parts a)Product Advertising b)Region wise
advertising. Product advertising and advancement should be allotted 20% and the most profitable products should be
advertised more. This heat map depicts the CATEGORIES-REGION wise. The categories being sold more in the region
should be advertised more accordingly. The region EAST AND WEST should be allocated 60% out of the leftover 80% as
they are more profitable, and rest should be allocated to leftover regions accordingly.
Ans - 4
‘Most Valuable’ and ‘Least-Valuable’ SHIPPING MODE for the company has been decided by making the Pivot Table from the
given dataset and then finding “Sum Total of Quantity” shipped for each SHIPPING MODE and “Sum Total of Profit” from
each of the SHIPPING MODE was obtained. The same has been attached below. Now, in order to find the “Most-Valuable” &
“Least-Valuable” shipping mode, we decided to calculate: “PROFIT PER QUANTITY” by dividing total profit with total quantity.
According to the “Profit Per Quantity” obtained, the “Most Valuable” Shipping Mode for the company is “FIRST CLASS” and
the “Least Valuable” Shipping Mode is “STANDARD CLASS”

Row Labels Sum of Quantity Sum of Profit Profit per Quantity

First Class 5693 48969.8399 8.60
Same Day 1960 15891.7589 8.11
Second Class 7423 57446.6354 7.74
Standard Class 22797 164088.7875 7.20
Grand Total 37873 286397.0217