Confidence Intervals

and Sample Size

© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000

 Objectives

 Find the confidence interval for the

mean when  is known or n 30.
 Determine the minimum sample size
for finding a confidence interval for
the mean.
 Find the confidence interval for the
mean when  is unknown and n 30.
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 Objectives
 Find the confidence interval for a
proportion.
 Determine the minimum sample
size for finding a confidence
interval for a proportion.
 Find a confidence interval for a
variance and a standard deviation.
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 Confidence Level

 Confidence Level is the probability

that the value of a parameter falls
within a specified range of values.

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 Confidence Intervals

 A confidence interval gives an

estimated range of values which is
likely to include an unknown
population parameter, the estimated
range being calculated from a given
set of sample data.

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 Formula: Confidence Intervals for
the Mean ( Known or n  30)

 The confidence level is the

percentage equivalent to the decimal
value of 1 – .

   
X  z      X  z  
 n
2
 n 2

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 Maximum Error of Estimate

 The maximum error of estimate is

the maximum difference between
the point estimate of a parameter
and the actual value of the
parameter.
 
E  z 2  
 n
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 Confidence Intervals -
Example
 The president of a large university
wishes to estimate the average age of
the students presently enrolled. From
past studies, the standard deviation is
known to be 2 years. A sample of 50
students is selected, and the mean is
found to be 23.2 years. Find the 95%
confidence interval of the population
mean. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Confidence Intervals –
Example (continued)
Since the 95% confidence interval
is desired , z  196
2 . . Hence,
substituting in the formula
     
X – z  ÷ X + z  ÷
2
 n  n2

one gets

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Confidence Intervals –
Example (continued)
2 2
23.2 (1.96)( )    23.2  (1.96)( )
50 50
23.2  0.6    23.2  0.6
22.6    238. or 23.2  0.6 years.
Hence, the president can say , with 95%
confidence, that the average age
of the students is between 22.6 and 238 .
years, based on 50 students.

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 Confidence Intervals –
Example
 A certain medication is known to
increase the pulse rate of its users.
The standard deviation of the pulse
rate is known to be 5 beats per
minute. A sample of 30 users had an
average pulse rate of 104.0 beats per
minute. Find the 99% confidence
interval of the true mean.
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Confidence Intervals –
Example (continued)
Since the 99% confidence interval
is desired , z  2.58. Hence,
2

substituting in the formula

   
X –z      X + z  
2
 n  n 2

one gets
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Confidence Intervals –
Example (continued)
5 5
104  (2.58)
. ( )    104 (2.58)( )
30 30
104  2.4    104  2.4
.    106.4.
1016
Hence, one can say, with 99%
confidence, that the average pulse
rate is between 1016 . and 106.4
beats per minute, based on 30 users.

© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000

Formula for the Minimum Sample
Size Needed for an Interval Estimate
of the Population Mean
 z   
2

n 2

 E 
where E is the maximum error
of estimate.
If necessary , round the answer up
to obtain a whole number.

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Minimum Sample Size Needed for an
Interval Estimate of the Population
Mean - Example
The college president asks the
statistics teacher to estimate the average
age of the students at their college. How
large a sample is necessary? The
statistics teacher decides the estimate
should be accurate within 1 year and be
99% confident. From a previous study,
the standard deviation of the ages is
known to be 3 years. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Minimum Sample Size Needed for an
Interval Estimate of the Population
Mean – Example(continued)
Since  = 0.01 (or 1 – 0.99),
z = 2.58, and E = 1, substituting
2

 z × 
2

in n   ÷ gives
2

 E 
 (2.58)(3) 
2

n =  ÷  59.9  60.
 1 
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 Characteristics of the
t Distribution
The t distribution is similar to the
standard normal distribution in the
following ways:
 It is bell-shaped.
 It is symmetrical about the mean.
 The mean, median, and mode are equal
to 0 and are located at the center of the
distribution.
 The curve never touches the x axis.
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 Characteristics of the
t Distribution
The t distribution differs from the
standard normal distribution in the
following ways:
 The variance is greater than 1.
 The t distribution is actually a family of
curves based on the concept of degrees of
freedom, which is related to the sample
size.
 As the sample size increases, the t
distribution approaches the standard
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normal distribution.
Standard Normal Curve and
the t Distribution

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 Formula: Confidence Intervals for
the Mean ( Unknown and n < 30)

 s   s 
X  t 2      X  t 2  
 n  n
df  n  1

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 Confidence Interval for the Mean
( Unknown and n < 30) - Example
 Ten randomly selected automobiles
were stopped, and the tread depth of
the right front tire was measured.
The mean was 0.32 inch, and the
standard deviation was 0.08 inch.
Find the 95% confidence interval of
the mean depth. Assume that the
variable is approximately normally
distributed. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
 Confidence Interval for the Mean
( Unknown and n < 30) –
Example(continued)
 Since  is unknown and s must replace
it, the t distribution must be used with
 = 0.05. Hence, with 9 degrees of
freedom, t/2 = 2.262 (see Table F in
text).
 From the next slide, we can be 95%
confident that the population mean is
between 0.26 and 0.38.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Confidence Interval for the Mean
( Unknown and n < 30) –
Example(continued)
Thus the 95% confidence interval
of the population mean is found by
substituting in
 s   s 
X t      X t  
 n 
 2
 n 
 2

 0.08      0.08 
0.32–(2.262)   0.32  (2.262)  
 10   10 
0.26    0.38

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 Confidence Interval for the Mean
( Unknown and n < 30) - Example

 The data represent a sample of the

number of home fires started by candles
for the past several years. (Data are from
the National Fire Protection Association.)
Find the 99% confidence interval for the
mean number of home fires started by
candles each year.
5460, 5900, 6090, 6310, 7160, 8440, 9930
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 Confidence Interval for the Mean
( Unknown and n < 30)
– Example(continued)
 Answer: One can be 99% confident
that the population mean number of
home fires started by candles each year
is between 4785.2 and 9297.6, based on
a sample of home fires occurring over a
period of 7 years.

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Confidence Intervals and
Sample Size for Proportions
Symbols Used in Proportion Notation
p  population proportion
p ( read “p  hat”) sample proportion
X
p  and q  1 – p
n
where X  number of sample units that
possess the characteristic of interest
and n  sample size.
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 Confidence Intervals and Sample
Size for Proportions - Example

 In a recent survey of 150

households, 54 had central air
conditioning. Find p̂ and q̂ .

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Confidence Intervals and Sample
Size for Proportions –
Example(continued)
Since X  54 and n  150, then
X 54
p  = = 0.36 = 36%
n 150
n  X 150 54 96
and q  = =
n 150 150
 0.64  64%
or q = 1 – p  1  0.36  0.64.
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 Confidence Intervals and Sample
Size for Proportions - Example

In a study, 200 people were

asked if they were satisfied with their
profession; 162 said they were. What
is the sample proportion?
 Ans. 81/100

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Formula for a Specific Confidence
Interval for a Proportion


pq 
pq
p  (z )
2
 p  p  (z ) 2
n n
Rounding Rule for Confidence Interval for a
Proportion: Round off to three decimal places.
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Specific Confidence Interval for
a Proportion - Example

A sample of 500 nursing

applications included 60 from men.
Find the 90% confidence interval of the
true proportion of men who applied to
the nursing program.
 Here  = 1 – 0.90 = 0.10, and z/2 = 1.65.

 p̂ = 60/500 = 0.12 and q̂ = 1– 0.12 = 0.88.

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Specific Confidence Interval for a
Proportion – Example(continued)
Substituti ng in

pq
 p  p 
z 
pq
p 
z 2
2
n n
we get
( 0.12 )( 0.88)
Lower limit  0.12  (1.65) = 0.096
500
( 0.12 )( 0.88)
Upper limit  0.12  (1.65) = 0.144
500
Thus , 0.096 < p < 0.144 or 9.6% < p < 14.4%.

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 Specific Confidence Interval for
a Proportion - Example
A survey of 200 000 boat owners
found that 12% of the pleasure boats
were named Serenity. Find the 95%
confidence interval of the true
proportion of the boats named
Serenity.
0.119 < p < 0.121

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Sample Size Needed for Interval
Estimate of a Population Proportion

 z 
2

n  pq
  2

 E
where E is the maximum error
of estimate.
If necessary , round the answer up
to obtain a whole number .
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Sample Size Needed for Interval
Estimate of a Population Proportion
- Example
A researcher wishes to estimate,
with 95% confidence, the number of
people who own a home computer. A
previous study shows that 40% of those
interviewed had a computer at home.
The researcher wishes to be accurate
within 2% of the true proportion. Find
the minimum sample size necessary.
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Sample Size Needed for Interval
Estimate of a Population Proportion
- Example

Since  = 0.05, z = 1.96, E = 0.02 p = 0.40,

2

 z 
2

and q = 0.60 , then n  pq

  
2

 E
 1.96 
2

= (0.40)(0.60)   2304.96
 0.02 
Which, when rounded up is 2305 people
to interview.
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Confidence Intervals for Variances
and Standard Deviations
 To calculate these confidence intervals,
the chi-square ( 2 ) distribution is used.
 The chi-square distribution is similar to
the t distribution in that its distribution is a
family of curves based on the number of
degrees of freedom.
 A chi-square variable cannot be negative
and the distributions are positively
skewed. © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Confidence Intervals for Variances
and Standard Deviations


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Confidence Interval for a
Variance

Formula for the confidence interval

for a variance
(n  1) s 2
(n  1) s 2

 
2

2
right
 2
left

d. f . n  1

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Confidence Interval for a
Standard Deviation

Formula for the confidence interval

for a standard deviation
(n  1) s (n  1) s
2 2

 
 2
right
 2
left

d.f. n  1

© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000

 Confidence Interval for the
Variance - Example

Find the 95% confidence interval

for the variance and standard deviation
of the nicotine content of cigarettes
manufactured if a sample of 20
cigarettes has a standard deviation of
1.6 milligrams.
 Since  = 0.05, the critical values for the
0.025 and 0.975 levels for 19 degrees of
freedom are 32.852 and 8.907.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Confidence Interval for the
Variance – Example(continued)
The 95% confidence interval
for the variance is found by
substituting in
(n  1) s (n  1) s
2 2

  2

 2
right
 2
left

(20  1)(1.6) (20  1)(1.6)

2 2

  2

32.852 8.907
.    55
2
15 .
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
Confidence Interval for the Standard
Deviation – Example(continued)

The 95% confidence interval

for the standard deviation is
15.    55 .
.    2.3
12

© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000

 Exercise: (One whole yellow paper-by pair)
1. A survey found that out of 200 workers, 168 said they were interrupted three or more
times an hour by phone messages, faxes, etc. Find the 90% confidence interval of the
population proportion of workers who are interrupted three or more times an hour.
2. A meteorologist who sampled 13 thunderstorms found that the average speed at
which they traveled across a certain state was 15.0 miles per hour. The standard
deviation of the sample was 1.7 miles per hour. Find the 99% confidence interval of the
mean.
3. The number of calories in a 1 – ounce serving of various kinds of regular cheese is
shown. Estimate the population standard deviation with 90% confidence.
110 110 130 90 45 100 100 110 100 110
80 70 95 95 105 125 110 120 105 108
4. A survey of 35 individuals who passed the seven exams and obtained the rank of
Fellow in the actuarial field finds the average salary to be $150,000. If the standard
deviation for the population is $15,000, construct a 95% confidence interval for the
mean.