TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING

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Objectives/ concepts of Technology Forecasting

• understand the significance and role of

Technology Forecasting in decision making at
corporate level as well as national level

• know the classification and various methods of

Technology Forecasting and their comparative
advantages/disadvantages
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There are two approaches to technology
forecasting namely
a) Exploratory, and
b) Normative

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Exploratory forecasting, in a way, transcends into
the future from the past performance or
experience.

Its techniques deal with the analysis of the

technological capability, features etc. of the past,
evaluation of the present, looking forward to the
future, taking into account the dynamic
progression which brought us to today's position.
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Unlike exploratory forecasting, normative approach begins from the future
and works out desired landmarks backwards to the present state. In other
words, the mind is projected into the future by postulating a desired or
possible state of technological development to satisfy a specific need. The
forecaster then works backwards to identify the steps or landmarks necessary
to be achieved, with assessed level of probability, in order to reach the end
point or goal set hence fore.

However, it must be appreciated that exploratory and normative methods are

not competitive nor do they substitute for one another. Essentially they are
complementary to each other and have to be used together. Usually one does
not attempt to prepare an exploratory forecast of some technology unless
there is a normative forecast that the specific technology will be needed.
Similarly, no one will generally prepare a normative forecast without some
preliminary idea that it may be possible to meet the desired objective.

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Different techniques, as shown in Figure 4.1 have
been developed over the years to deal with
forecasting methodologies. The forecaster has to
judiciously select a technique or a combination
of techniques depending upon the methodology
and end objective in view.
The common techniques could be summarised
as follows:

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We shall endeavour to describe briefly some of
the corilmonly used techniques; however, you
may refer to literature to get a grasp of the other
higher level forecasting techniques. But before
doing so, we list in Table the Technological
Forecasting (TF) methods used for each of the
four main activities in the business
environment.

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An objective forecast should have a sound logical framework to ensure
its repeatability. Formal forecasting techniques are used to replace
subjective opinion with objective data using a replicable method. Even
though objective technique's are desirable, there are three situations in
which expert opinion (subjective or intuitive method) may be resorted
to
i) when there is no historical data, especially situations in which new
technologies are involved; expert opinion is the only possible source for
a forecast,
ii) when impact of external factors is more important than the factors
that governed the previous development of the technology. Under
this condition, forecast using past data is irrelevant,
iii)when ethical considerations rather than technical and economic
considerations govern the development of a technology.

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It has been observed that the growth pattern of many of
the biological systems follow an `S' shape curve. Initially
the growth is slow, and then the growth rate increases
and finally levels off into the natural limit. Fruits,
vegetables, population of yeast cells etc. show an S
shaped growth pattern in natural environment .

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The morphological approach, another
normative technique, was developed
by Fritz Zincky, and involves a
systematic evaluation of all possible
combinations of solutions to
individual parts of a whole system.

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In this analysis, the whole problem is broken down into
parts which could be treated independently with
several solutions to each part.

The forecast is made on the combination of such

solutions of each part to satisfy the desired objective of
the whole system.

In essence, morphological analysis and relevance tree

could be considered as two faces of the same coin.

`Relevance trees' provides a hierarchical structure while

`morphological model' presents a parallel structure of
the problem.

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 4.2 : Break up of Solar Car into Components

Morphology

Solar Panels 1 2 3

Electric Controls 1 2

Motor 1 2 3

Energy Source Solar Cell Storage Battery

Type of Storage Primary Secondary Fuel cell

Battery
Primary

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The various types of
elements in `energy source'
and "types of storage
battery" in morphological
model show up as branches
in the Relevance Tree in Fig.

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Like the relevance tree solutions,
once the required levels of functional
capabilities are determined by
morphological analysis, they could
be utilised for forecasting a feasible
and suitable configuration of a solar
car, estimating the timeframe etc. by
obtaining an exploratory forecast of
each of the technologies involved in
the elements.
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Note that the problem has
3x2x3x2x3=108 solutions of which
some would be rejected immediately
based on technological considerations.
Systematic analysis would tell the
forecaster which combinations of
solutions of individual components
would provide the desired satisfaction
to meet the objective.

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The forecast serves as an input to the process of
making plans and decisions. Martino has described
the role of the forecast in planning as follows :
a)The forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not
possible to go,
b) It establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the
plan can be made to take full advantage of such
rates; conversely it does not demand an impossible
rate of progress

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c) It describes the alternatives
which are open and can be
chosen from,
d) It indicates possibilities which
might be achieved, if desired,

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e) It provides a reference standard for the plan.
The plan can thus be compared with the
forecast at any point in time, to determine
whether it can still be fulfilled, or whether,
because of changes in the forecast, it has to
be changed, and
f) It furnishes warning signals, which can
alert the decision maker that it will not be
possible to continue present activities.
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Vision 2035 document

Education
Medical Sciences and Healthcare
Food and Agriculture
Water
Energy
Environment
Habitat
Transportation
Infrastructure
Manufacturing
Materials
Information and Communication Technology
(ICT)
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Examples

Ola  Tricity deal

 Flip cart
Uber
 Kindle
Red bus
 Zomato
Big basket  olx
 …..... More …......
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