Chile earthquake and tsunami

Magnitude 8.8;
hypocenter 21 miles Tsunami
Deep-ocean Assessment and
Reporting of Tsunami
Changed the
Chile: M 8.8
planet’s axis by
earthquake
three inches
•Large mass of rock
moved
•Nearby island uplifted 2
feet
•Steep sloping
subduction zone
•Each day should be 1.26
microsecond shorter
(hundredth of a second)
 Chile: aftershocks
Magnitudes: 6, 5.1, 4.9 Tsunami warning
Predicting volcanic eruptions
and reducing the risk
What can scientists do to
reduce volcanic risk?
 Mitigation: measures to reduce
risk
 Understanding the potential hazards
 Hazard maps
 Monitoring
 Emergency plan in place and practiced
 Education of government officials and
public
 This process begins with the
gathering of scientific information
Understanding the Past
 The eruptive history is very
important.
 Ancient volcanic deposits are dated
to determine frequency of eruptions.
An understanding of the potential
hazard
Understanding of hazards: provide
definition and potential location

 People will evacuate

when there is an
understanding of the
potential destruction
from a hazard.
Successful prediction of Mt.
Pinatubo, 1991

 The Philippine
government used volcanic
hazard videos and other
information to educate
the public
 Successful evacuation
 Disaster Nevado del Ruiz volcano,
Columbia, 1985

 The people of Armero did not understand the potential

hazards of a lahar
 Government officials knew about the potential hazard
 23,000 fatalities
 Map ancient
volcanic deposits.
Hazard Map of
Mt. Rainier:
map indicates
previous lahar
and pyroclastic
flows
Results: where one
would expect these
hazards to occur in
the future
 Lassen Peak, Hazard Map
 Vents that have
produced eruptions
 Yellow- lava flow
zones
 Gold- ash fall zone
 Orange-combined
 Pink-mudflows
 Aqua- floods
 Monitoring Precursors
 Physical changes are known to precede a volcanic
eruption.
 Name changes in volcanic activity. These changes are
called precursors.

•Seismicity
•Deformation
•Snow melt
•Water levels and chemistry
•Gas emission
•Small eruptions
Monitoring methods
 Monitoring Volcanoes
Ground Deformation
 Movement of magma into the system tends to inflate the
volcano’s surface
 Tiltmeters
 Global Positioning Stations (GPS)
 Radar interferometry- satellite
 Deformation
Tiltmeter

 Direct
measurements are
made when the
volcano is increasing
in precursor activity

Global Positioning Satellites record vertical and

horizontal movement of the volcano
 Monitoring Volcanoes
Seismicity

Mt. St. Helens

 Magma fractures cooler rock causing

earthquakes
 An increase in the number of earthquakes may
indicate an imminent eruption
 Seismometer
 Seismic waves move
through the crust and
reach the seismometer
 The seismometer
records the strength Seismometer placed near
and type of movement Mt. St. Helens
 The information is sent
to a station and
recorded through radio
waves or satellite
communication
 Monitoring the Long Valley
Caldera

 Ground deformation
 Resurgent dome
grew is 80
centimeters from the
late 1970’s to 1999
 minor subsidence
since 1999
 Monitoring the Long Valley
Caldera
 Seismicity averages
5-10 earthquakes
per day since 1999
 Occasionally swarms
of earthquakes
cause alarm (200-
300/week)
 generally less than
M=2
 Mt. St. Helens
 Seismic activity
increased in 2005
 Increased monitoring
of activity
 Seismicity
 Visual inspections
 Gas emissions
Mt. St. Helens
 Alert level 2: activity
increasing that lead to
a hazardous volcanic
eruption
 Aviation level orange-
ash to 30,000 feet,
traveling 100 miles
 Seismicity

 With more than three

stations the initial rupture
of the earthquake is
located
 Outlining the size and
location of the magma
chamber
Mt. St Helens

 Green dots represent activity in the

past 24 hours.
 Gas Emissions: as magma
ascends, decompression
melting releases gas

Sulfur dioxide cloud, three

hours after eruption

 Direct and indirect measurements

 Increase in gas emissions may
indicate an imminent eruption
Mt. St. Helens

Volcanic watch
 Monitoring the Long Valley
Caldera
 Carbon dioxide escape
from the magma
chamber
 Associated with faults
that act as pathways
 50-150 tons per day
since 1996
 level remains the same
 Horseshoe lake
Gas Emissions
 Direct sampling is
completed by
collecting the gas in
a liquid
 Analysis is done at a
laboratory
 Satellite images can monitor movement of ash in the
atmosphere. Ash abrades windows and can cause engine
failure

Composite satellite image of

ash produced from Mt. Spur,
Alaska over a one week
period
 Thermal Change indicates magma moving closer to the
surface

 Satellite sensors are able to detect

increased temperatures before an
eruption
 Used for remote active volcanoes or Pavlov Volcano, Alaska
if seismicity does not precede an
eruption
 Lahar Warning System

 Sensors detect high frequency vibrations

produced by lahars moving down a stream
channel
 Sensors are placed downstream from volcano
but upstream from population
Warning System
 Warning System

 Normal: Typical background activity;

non-eruptive state
 Advisory: Elevated unrest above known
background activity
 Watch: Heightened/escalating unrest
with increased potential for eruptive
activity
 Warning: Highly hazardous eruption
underway or imminent
 Aviation Warning
System
 Green: normal activity
 Yellow: exhibiting signs of elevated unrest
 Orange: heightened unrest with increased
likelihood of eruption (specify ash plume
height)
 Red: eruption’s forecast to be imminent
with significant emission of ash into the
atmosphere (specify ash plume height)
Educating the Public
 Communication

Most important: think of the disasters in

the past 6 years
Volcanic Disaster Assistance
Program
 Volcanic Disaster Assistance
Program

 The primary purpose is to save lives in

developing countries.
 Works with the Office of /Foreign disaster
Assistance
 U.S. Agency for International Development
 Volcanic Disaster Assistance
Program
 The Volcanic Disaster
Assistance Program was
developed after the 1985
eruption of Nevada del Ruiz.
 Since 1986, the response
team organized and operated
by the U.S.G.S. responds
globally to eminent probable
volcanic eruptions.
Nevada del Ruiz lahar that
killed 23.000 people.
Communication to Public

 Increase in seismic
activity in 1996
 Alaska
 Prevent evacuation of
1,000 residents
 Prevent closing of
fishing industry
The eruption of Rabaul, Papua New
Guinea, September, 1994.

 Residents who witnessed the 1937 eruption

explained what occurred
 Education of the local population through
community groups
 Successful evacuation due to following the plan
Real time monitoring
 Successful Prediction

 Mount Pinatubo, 1991

Approximately 330,000 people

evacuated prior to the eruption
 Evaluation of Risk

 Zones of highest to lowest risk should be

identified
 Urban planning should take in account
the areas of highest risk
 These areas should be evacuated first
 Risk

 Applying the Volcano Explosivity Index

 Mt. Pinatubo- 6-7

 Amount of property damage

 Population

 This equates to the amount of risk

 Evaluation of Volcanic Risk
 United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization-UNESCO
 Risk=(value)x(vulnerability)x(hazard)

 Value= # of lives, monetary goods in area

 Vulnerability=% of lives or goods likely
to be lost in a given event
 Hazard=based on the Volcanic Explosivity
Index- VEI
 Volcanic Explosivity Index

 Volume of material
 Eruption column
height Plinian: 5-7; 1993 Lascar Volcano, Chile

 Eruptive style
 How long the Hawaiian: 0-2
major eruptive
burst lasted
Tambora eruption, 1815: VEI 7
 Evaluation of
Risk
 Mt. Vesuvius produced a
VEI 5 eruption in 79 CE.
 There are now 3 million
people living on and
near this volcano.
 Less than 1% chance for
another eruption this
size in the next 10 years
 High risk coefficient due
to the high population
density

Mt. Vesuvius, Pliny

Vesuvius Erupts
 Computer
simulations help
understand which
areas would be
affected first
 Those
communities
should be
evacuated first
 Mt. Vesuvius, Areas of Risk

Emergency
plan assumes
that there can
be a 20 day
warning
 Without warning
 Estimated 15-20,000 casualties
 What do you think?

1944
eruption
 Mitigation

 Understanding the potential hazards

 Hazard maps
 Monitoring
 Emergency plan in place and practiced
 Education of government officials and
public
 Communication clear between scientists,
government officials and the public