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Analyze Phase
• 4M Diagram
• Hypothesis Testing
• Mean Testing
• Variance Testing
• Regression Analysis
4 M Diagram
MACHINE
MAN
Cause
Effect
Cause
Cause
Cause
METHOD MATERIAL
4 M ( Man, Method, Machine & Material ) Diagram is used to list down all the Probable
factors (causes ) responsible for the Major Problem ( Effect ). After brainstorming the
Significant Factors are selected for further comparison ( Hypothesis Testing )
The Symptom or result is put under the Dark Box on the Right.. Lighter Boxes at the end
of the Large Bones are main groups in which ideas are classified. The Lighter Boxes
consist of Four Ms - Man,Method, Machine & Material. The Middle Bones indicates the
direction of path from cause to effect.
Analyze - Cause & Effect Diagram Understanding Six Sigma
Machine
Man
Cylinder
New casual Failure
Die
Handling Setting
problem M/C not
clean OUT CASE
DENT
Dented sheet
Chips on Piece
sheet Piece
Sheet unloading
check
thickness
Material Method
Analyze - Tests used for Comparison Understanding Six Sigma
Third step is Mean Testing , for 1- Sample Z & 1- Sample t test , the variance
testing is not required.
Analyze - Hypothesis Understanding Six Sigma
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis means an assumption ,something taken to be true for the Purpose of
argument or Investigation. There is two types of Hypothesis.
• Null Hypothesis ( Ho)
• Alternate Hypothesis ( Ha)
Analyze
There are many types of hypothesis test. The test is selected depending on
the type of data or the comparison required.
Continuos Data Discreet Data
1) 2 Variance Test : Compares Variances 3) Chi Square Test : Compares counts
• Levene’s Test • Goodness of Fit
• Bartlett’s Test • Contingency Table
2) t-test : Compares means
• 1 sample t-test • Paired t-test
• 2 sample t-test Population
Ho Ha
Incorrect Decision
In this case as the samples does not In this case as the samples
correctly represent the Population Type 1 Correct correctly represent the Population
Ha Error
so sample mean ≠ Population mean. Decision so sample mean = Population mean.
Incorrect Decision α Correct Decision
Analyze - Hypothesis Understanding Six Sigma
The Conditions for the acceptability of Alternate Hypothesis are just the
converse of above conditions.
Analyze - Hypothesis Understanding Six Sigma
Important Terms
1.) Type 1 Error : This error gives us the probability of rejecting the Right Material .
This happens when a weird sample gets selected for the comparison of
mean/variance. It is also known as a - Error or Producer’s Risk. Generally It’s value
lies around 5 %.
2. ) Type 2 Error : This error gives us the probability of accepting the wrong
material. This also happens when a weird sample is selected for comparison. It is also
known as b - Error or Consumer’s Risk. It’s value generally lies around 10 %.
3 .) 1-α = Confidence of the Test
The probability that can be determined as a right thing when the Null Hypothesis is
correct.
Example : Measurements were made on nine widgets. You know that the distribution of
measurements has historically been close to normal with s = 0.2. Because you know s, and
you wish to test if the population mean is 5 and obtain a 90% confidence interval for the
mean, you use the Z-procedure.
Solution : Values
4.9
1 Open the worksheet enter the values.. 5.1
4.6
2 Choose Stat > Basic Statistics > 1-Sample Z.
5
3 In Samples in Columns, enter Values. 5.1
4.7
4 In Standard deviation, enter 0.2. 4.4
4.7
5 In Test mean, enter 5. 4.6
1 Sample t test : This test compares the mean of the sample with some test Population
when Population standard deviation spop is Unknown. This procedure is based upon the t-
distribution, which is derived from a normal distribution with unknown s.
Example : Measurements were made on nine widgets. You know that the distribution of
widget measurements has historically been close to normal, but suppose that you do not
know s. To test if the population mean is 5 and to obtain a 90% confidence interval for the
mean, you use a t-procedure.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Solution : Values
1 Open the worksheet enter the data. 4.9
5.1
2 Choose Stat > Basic Statistics > 1-Sample t. 4.6
5
3 In Samples in columns, enter Values.
5.1
4 In Test mean, enter 5. 4.7
4.4
5 Click Options. In Confidence level enter 90. 4.7
Click OK in each dialog box 4.6
One-Sample T: Values
Test of mu = 5 vs not = 5
Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 90% CI T P
Values 9 4.78889 0.24721 0.08240 (4.63566, 4.94212) -2.56 0.034
Result Interpretation :
The p-value < 0.01 , also the test mean does not lie within the Confidence Interval so Null
Hypothesis is rejected and Alternate Hypothesis is accepted. It confirms that the sample
mean is not euqal to Population Mean ).
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
2 Sample t test :. It computes a confidence interval and performs a hypothesis test of the
difference between two population means when s 's are unknown and samples are drawn
independently from each other. This procedure is based upon the t-distribution, and for small
samples it works best if data were drawn from distributions that are normal or close to
normal. You can have increasing confidence in the results as the sample sizes increase.
Example : A study was performed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of two devices for
improving the efficiency of gas home-heating systems. Energy consumption in houses was
measured after one of the two devices was installed. The two devices were an electric vent
damper (Damper=1) and a thermally activated vent damper (Damper=2). The energy
consumption data (BTU.In) are stacked in one column with a grouping column (Damper)
containing identifiers or subscripts to denote the population. Suppose that you performed a
variance test and found no evidence for variances being unequal .Now you want to compare
the effectiveness of these two devices by determining whether or not there is any evidence
that the difference between the devices is different from zero.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
BTU.In Da mpe r
7.87 1
9.43 1
Solution : 7.16
8.67
1
1
12.31 1
9.84 1
1 Open the worksheet , enter the data. 16.9
10.04
1
1
12.62 1
7.62 1
8.58
4
1
1
1
8 1
5.98 1
5 In Subscripts, enter Damper. 15.24
8.54
1
1
11.09 1
11.7 1
Minitab Output :
Two-Sample T-Test and CI: BTU.In, Damper
Two-sample T for BTU.In
Damper N Mean StDev SE Mean
1 40 9.91 3.02 0.48
2 50 10.14 2.77 0.39
Difference = mu (1) - mu (2)
Estimate for difference: -0.235250
95% CI for difference: (-1.450131, 0.979631)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -0.38 P-Value = 0.701 DF = 88
Both use Pooled StDev = 2.8818
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Result Interpretation :
Minitab displays a table of the sample sizes, sample means, standard deviations, and
standard errors for the two samples.
Since we previously found no evidence for variances being unequal, we chose to use the
pooled standard deviation by choosing Assume equal variances. The pooled standard
deviation, 2.8818, is used to calculate the test statistic and the confidence intervals.
A second table gives a confidence interval for the difference in population means. For this
example, a 95% confidence interval is (-1.45, 0.98) which includes zero, thus suggesting that
there is no difference. Next is the hypothesis test result. The test statistic is -0.38, with p-
value of 0.701, and 88 degrees of freedom.
Since the p-value is greater than commonly chosen a-levels, there is no evidence for a
difference in energy use when using an electric vent damper versus a thermally activated
vent damper.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
ANOVA: ANOVA determines if the variation between the average of the levels is greater
than the variation that occurs within the level
Example : You design an experiment to assess the durability of four experimental carpet
products. You place a sample of each of the carpet products in four homes and you measure
durability after 60 days. Because you wish to test the equality of means and to assess the
differences in means, you use the one-way ANOVA procedure (data in stacked form) with
multiple comparisons. Generally, you would choose one multiple comparison method as
appropriate for your data. However, two methods are selected here to demonstrate Minitab's
capabilities. Durability Carpet
18.95 1
12.62 1
Solution : 11.94 1
14.42 1
1 Open the worksheet enter the data 10.06 2
7.19 2
2 Choose Stat > ANOVA > One-Way. 7.03 2
14.66 2
3 In Response, enter Durability. In Factor, enter Carpet. 10.92 3
13.28 3
4 Click OK in each dialog box. 14.52 3
12.51 3
10.46 4
21.4 4
18.1 4
22.5 4
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Minitab Output :
One-way ANOVA: Durability versus Carpet
Source DF SS MS F P
Carpet 3 146.4 48.8 3.58 0.047
P Value < 0.05, so Ha , Alternate
Error 12 163.5 13.6 Hypothesis
Total 15 309.9
The Co relation coefficient
S = 3.691 R-Sq = 47.24% R-Sq(adj) = 34.05% is also very poor, because
R2 & R2 (adj) < 64 %
Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on
Pooled StDev
Level N Mean StDev ---------+---------+---------+---------+
1 4 14.483 3.157 (-------*-------)
2 4 9.735 3.566 (-------*--------)
3 4 12.808 1.506 (-------*-------)
4 4 18.115 5.435 (-------*-------)
---------+---------+---------+---------+
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.
Pooled StDev = 3.691
Result Interpretation : The p < 0.05, indicating that the mean of the two samples
is not equal. The R2 & R2(adj) values < 64 % , indicating a poor Coorelation
between the Carpet and Durability.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Example : A county district attorney would like to run for the office of state district
attorney. She has decided that she will give up her county office and run for state office if
more than 65% of her party constituents support her. You need to test H0: p = .65 versus
H1: p > .65.
As her campaign manager, you collected data on 950 randomly selected party members
and find that 560 party members support the candidate. A test of proportion was
performed to determine whether or not the proportion of supporters was greater than the
required proportion of 0.65. In addition, a 95% confidence bound was constructed to
determine the lower bound for the proportion of supporters.
95%
Lower Exact
The p-value of 1.0 suggests that the data are consistent with the null hypothesis (H0: p =
0.65), that is, the proportion of party members that support the candidate is not greater than
the required proportion of 0.65. As her campaign manager, you would advise her not to run
for the office of state district attorney.
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2 Proportion Test : Performs a test of
two binomial proportions.
Use the 2 Proportions command to
compute a confidence interval and perform
a hypothesis test of the difference
between two proportions. For example,
suppose you wanted to know whether the
proportion of consumers who return a
survey could be increased by providing an
incentive such as a product sample. You
might include the product sample with half
of your mailings and see if you have more
responses from the group that received
the sample than from those who did not.
For a two-tailed test of two proportions:
H0: p1 - p2 = p0 versus H1: p1 - p2 ≠ p0
where p1 and p2 are the proportions of
success in populations 1 and 2,
respectively, and p0 is the hypothesized
difference between the two proportions.
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Example : As your corporation's purchasing manager, you need to authorize the purchase
of twenty new photocopy machines. After comparing many brands in terms of price, copy
quality, warranty, and features, you have narrowed the choice to two: Brand X and Brand Y.
You decide that the determining factor will be the reliability of the brands as defined by the
proportion requiring service within one year of purchase.
Because your corporation already uses both of these brands, you were able to obtain
information on the service history of 50 randomly selected machines of each brand. Records
indicate that six Brand X machines and eight Brand Y machines needed service. Use this
information to guide your choice of brand for purchase.
3 In First sample, under Trials, enter 50. Under Events, enter 44.
4 In Second sample, under Trials, enter 50. Under Events, enter 42. Click OK.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Since the p-value of 0.564 is larger than commonly chosen a levels, the data are consistent
with the null hypothesis (H0: p1 - p2 = 0). That is, the proportion of photocopy machines that
needed service in the first year did not differ depending on brand. As the purchasing
manager, you need to find a different criterion to guide your decision on which brand to
purchase.
You can make the same decision using the 95% confidence interval. Because zero falls in
the confidence interval of (-0.096 to 0.176) you can conclude that the data are consistent
with the null hypothesis. If you think that the confidence interval is too wide and does not
provide precise information as to the value of p1 - p2, you may want to collect more data in
order to obtain a better estimate of the difference.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Example : You are interested in the relationship between gender and political party
affiliation. You query 100 people about their political affiliation and record the number of
males (row 1) and females (row 2) for each political party. The worksheet data appears as
follows:
28 18 4
22 27 1
3 In Columns containing the table, enter Democrat, Republican and Other. Click OK.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Session window output
Chi-Square Test: Democrat, Republican, Other
Expected counts are printed below observed counts
Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected counts
Democrat Republican Other Total
1 28 18 4 50
25.00 22.50 2.50
0.360 0.900 0.900
2 22 27 1 50
25.00 22.50 2.50
0.360 0.900 0.900
Total 50 45 5 100
Chi-Sq = 4.320, DF = 2, P-Value = 0.115
2 cells with expected counts less than 5.
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Session window output
Chi-Square Test: Democrat, Republican, Other
Expected counts are printed below observed counts
Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected counts
Democrat Republican Other Total Observed Frequency
1 28 18 4 50 Expected Frequency
25.00 22.50 2.50
0.360 0.900 0.900 Chi Square Values
2 22 27 1 50
25.00 22.50 2.50 Row Totals
Formulae’s :
assumption.
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Example : A study was performed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of two devices for
improving the efficiency of gas home-heating systems. Energy consumption in houses was
measured after one of the two devices was installed. The two devices were an electric vent
damper (Damper = 1) and a thermally activated vent damper (Damper = 2). The energy
consumption data (BTU.In) are stacked in one column with a grouping column (Damper)
containing identifiers or subscripts to denote the population. You are interested in comparing
the variances of the two populations so that you can construct a two-sample t-test and
confidence interval to compare the two dampers.
Levene's Test
Test Statistic 0.00
If the data is
P-Value 0.996 not Normal
2
1
Damper
5 10 15 20
BTU.In
Analyze Understanding Six Sigma
Result Interpretation
The variance test generates a plot that displays Bonferroni 95% confidence intervals for the
population standard deviation at both factor levels. The graph also displays the side-by-side
boxplots of the raw data for the two samples. Finally, the results of the F-test and Levene's
test are given in both the Session window and the graph. Note that the 95% confidence level
applies to the family of intervals and the asymmetry of the intervals is due to the skewness of
the chi-square distribution.For the energy consumption example, the p-values of 0.558 and
0.996 are greater than reasonable choices of a, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis of the
variances being equal. That is, these data do not provide enough evidence to claim that the
two populations have unequal variances. Thus, it is reasonable to assume equal variances
Test for Equal Variance is used when comparing the variance of two or more than
two populations
Bartlett's Test
2 Test Statistic 2.71
P-Value 0.744
10 6 Lev ene's Test
Test Statistic 0.37
P-Value 0.858
10
16 6
10
The test for equal variances generates a plot that displays Bonferroni 95% confidence
intervals for the response standard deviation at each level. Bartlett's and Levene's test
results are displayed in both the Session window and in the graph. Note that the 95%
confidence level applies to the family of intervals and the asymmetry of the intervals is
For the potato rot example, the p-values of 0.744 and 0.858 are greater than reasonable
choices of a, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis of the variances being equal. That is,
these data do not provide enough evidence to claim that the populations have unequal
variances.
Analyze - Regression Understanding Six Sigma
350
There appears to be a linear
relationship 300
Annual Sales
between floor space and annual
sales… 250
200
That is, Is the Annual sales reducing or
increasing according to change floor 50 100 150
Example : Do regression and residual analysis for yield as shown in the table.Interpret the
output results. Please note that A,B,C are factors & yield is response.
S.No. A B C Yield
1 2 3 5 85
2 2 1 10 71
3 8 3 15 3129
4 6 4 20 1384
5 5 5 25 875
6 8 3 30 3159
7 5 1 35 823
8 3 2 40 254
9 2 2 45 150
10 1 8 50 298
11 9 7 55 4631
12 5 6 60 978
13 3 5 65 367
14 2 6 70 296
15 1 7 75 303
16 4 2 80 556
17 2 4 85 266
18 1 6 90 294
19 2 5 95 313
20 5 6 100 1058
Solution :
1.) Enter the columns A, B, C (Factors ) and Yield ( response ) in minitab Excel
sheet.
Analyze - Regression Understanding Six Sigma
4) Click OK.
Regression Analysis: Yield versus A, B, C
Source DF Seq SS
A 1 23966672
B 1 1314871
C 1 27018
Unusual Observations
Predictors
Fitted Value : The predicted y or ; the mean response value for the given
predictor values using the estimated regression equation.
Residuals :The difference (ei) between the observed values and predicted or
fitted values (data minus fits). This part of the observation is not explained by the
fitted model. The formula for the residual of an observation is: ei = (yi - i)
Linear Y = bo + b1X
Quadratic Y = bo + b11X2
Y is the response; X is the predictor; bo is the intercept; and b1, b11, and b111 are the
coefficients