Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
•Introduction
•Measuring Investment return
•Risky Assets versus Risk-Free Assets
•Measuring Portfolio Risk
•Choosing a Portfolio of Risky Assets
Introduction
• Investment face Return and Risk
• The value of Financial assets is the
present value of the cash flow expected
• The process requires :
– Estimating cash flow
– Determining the appropriate interest is the
minimum interest rate plus a risk premium
Introduction
• The risk and expected return is built on two
economic theories :
– Portfolio theory
• The selection of portfolios that maximize
expected return consistent with
individually acceptable level of risk
– Capital market theory
• The effects of investors decisions on security
prices
Measuring Investment Return
V1 - V0 D
Rp
V0
• V1 = the portfolio market value at the end of the interval
• V0 = the portfolio market value at the end of the interval
• D = the cash distribution to the investor during in the
interval
Rp 1 Rp 2 ... Rp N
RA
N
• RA = the arithmetic average return
• Rpk = the portfolio return in interval k as measured by
equation above
•k = 1,………..N
•N = the number of intervals in the performance evaluation periode
TIME-WEIGHTED RATE OF RETURN
•Measure the compounded rate of growth of the initial
portfolio during the performance evaluation period.
• ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
• ASUMPTIONS ABOUT INVESTOR BEHAVIOR
1. Investors decision parameters:
• The expected return
• The variance of returns
2. The risk-averter investor ascribe to the methodology
of reducing portfolio risk by combining assets with
counterbalancing correlations
3. All investors make investments decisions over some single-
period investment horizons
4. Investors have the same expectation assets returns,
variances, and correlations
• Assumptions about the capital markets
– The capital markets is perfectly competitive
– No transactions cost or impediments interfere with
supply and demand for an asset
– A risk-free exists in which investors can invest
• The Capital Market Theory
• The Capital Market Line
Capital Market
Line
E(Rp)
PB M
Markowitz
PA Efficient Frontier
Risk-free
rate
Std (Rp)
• Portfolios to the right of M Leveraged portfolios (borrowing at a
risk-free rate to buy a market portfolio)
• Portfolios to the left of M are combinations of risk-free asset and
market portfolio
E(Rm) - Rfr
Harga pasar risiko
σm
E(Rm)
Pf
βM=1.0 β1
β
• Sekuritas yang mempunyai beta < 1 dikatakan berisiko lebih
kecil dari resiko portfolio pasar, sebaliknya.
• Sekuritas yang memiliki beta sama dengan 1, diharapkan
mempunyai return ekspektasi yang sama dengan ekspektasi
portfolio
• Intercept sebesar Rbr (Rf)
• Slope sebesar [E(Rm) – Rbr]/βm, karena βm
bernilai 1, maka slopenya menjadi
[E(Rm) – Rbr]
• Dengan demikian modelnya menjadi :
E(Ri) = Rf + βm*[E(Rm)-Rbr]
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT)
E(Ri) 0 1b1
– APT untuk dua faktor
Ri a b1I1 bi2I2 i
•Satu faktor
Portfolio E (R) bp
Ekuilibrum
A 15% 1.5
B 10% 0.5
•Dua faktor