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Management
Forecasting
It can be biased
No error analysis
It is objective
Involves the projection of the past into Reflects management’s judgment after
the future taking all considerations into account
Types of Decision
Medium Aggregate
term demand
Long term
Strategies &
Planning facilities
Do I manage demand ?
Do I live with it?
Demand management describes the process of
influencing the volume of consumption of the
product or service through management decision
so that firms can use their resources and
production capacity more effectively.
13
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Eight Steps to
Forecasting
Determining the use of the
forecast--what are the
objectives?
Select the items to be forecast
Determine the time horizon of
the forecast
Select the forecasting model(s)
Collect the data
Validate the forecasting model
Make the forecast
Implement the results
Quantitative
Time Series Analysis
Exponential Method
Regression Analysis
Simulation/ Scenario Planning
Qualitative (Judgmental)
15
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Time Series
1. Extrapolation
2. Moving average Method
Exponential Method
1. Simple Exponential Method
Quantitative
2. Double Exponential Method Approach
3. Triple Exponential Method
Regression Analysis
1. Simple Regression Analysis
2. Multiple Regression Analysis
Demand
(units)
Constant
Time
Question:
Question: What
What isisthe
the 33
week
weekmoving
movingaverage
average
Week Demand forecast
forecast for
for this
thisdata?
data?
1 820 Assume
Assume youyouonly
onlyhave
have33
2 775 weeks
weeksand
and55 weeks
weeksofof
3 680 actual
actualdemand
demanddata datafor
forthe
the
4 655 respective
respectiveforecasts
forecasts
5 620
6 600
7 575
Question:
Question: Given
Giventhe
theweekly
weekly demand
demandand andweights,
weights,
what
whatis
isthe
theforecast
forecast for
for the
the44th period
th
period or
or Week
Week4?
4?
Week Demand Weights:
1 650 t-1 .5
2 678 t-2 .3
3 720 t-3 .2
4
Note
Note that
thatthe
theweights
weights place
placemore
moreemphasis
emphasis on on
the
themost
most recent
recent data,
data, that
thatis
istime
timeperiod
period “t-1”
“t-1”
25
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Problem Solution
F4 = 0.5(720)+0.3(678)+0.2(650)=693.4
26
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Problem (2) Data
Question:
Question: Given
Giventhe
the weekly
weeklydemand
demandinformation
information
and
and weights,
weights, what
what is
isthe
the weighted
weightedmoving
moving
average
averageforecast
forecast of
of the
the55th period
th
period or
or week?
week?
27
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Problem (2) Solution
F5 = (0.1)(755)+(0.2)(680)+(0.7)(655)= 672
28
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Exponential method is a
technique that is applied to time
series data, either to produce
smoothed data for presentation,
or to make forecasts.
Premise: The most recent
observations might have the Exponential
highest predictive value.
Therefore, we should give more
Method
weight to the more recent time
periods when forecasting
30
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Problem (1) Data
Question:
Question:Given
Giventhe
theweekly
weekly
Week Demand demand
demanddata,
data,what
whatare
arethe
the
1 820 exponential
exponentialsmoothing
smoothingforecasts
forecasts
2 775 for
forperiods
periods2-10 usingαα =0.10
2-10using =0.10
3 680 andαα =0.60?
and =0.60?
4 655 Assume
AssumeFF11=D
=D11
5 750
6 802 Which
Whichis
isaabetter
betterchoice?
choice?
7 798
8 689
9 775
10
31
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Answer:
Answer:The
Therespective
respectivealphas
alphascolumns
columnsdenote
denotethe
theforecast
forecast
values.
values. Note
Notethat
thatyou
youcan
canonly
onlyforecast
forecastone
onetime
timeperiod
periodinto
intothe
the
future.
future.
Week Demand 0.1
F3=775x0.1 + (1-
0.6
1 820 820.00
0.1)x820 =815.50820.00
2 775 820.00 820.00
3 680 815.50 793.00
4 655 801.95 725.20
5 750 787.26 683.08
6 802 783.53 723.23
7 798 785.38 770.49
8 689 786.64 787.00
9 775 776.88 728.20
10 776.69 756.28
32
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Which one?
Demand 0.1 D-W (D-W)2 0.6 D-W (D-W)2
820 820.00 0.00 0.00 820.00 0.00 0
775 820.00 -45.00 2025.00 820.00 -45.00 2025
680 815.50 -135.50 18360.25 793.00 -113.00 12769
655 801.95 -146.95 21594.30 725.20 -70.20 4928.04
750 787.26 -37.26 1387.94 683.08 66.92 4478.286
802 783.53 18.47 341.16 723.23 78.77 6204.398
798 785.38 12.62 159.35 770.49 27.51 756.6461
689 786.64 -97.64 9533.35 787.00 -98.00 9603.436
775 776.88 -1.88 3.52 728.20 46.80 2190.348
53404.87 42955.15
Answer:
Answer:Variance
Variance0.30.3 ==6675.61
6675.61and
andVariance
Variance0.60.6 ==5369.39.
5369.39. Therefore
Therefore
alpha
alphaas
as0.6
0.6is
isaabetter
betterchoice
choice
33
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Plotting the Solution
Note
Note how
how that
thatthe
the smaller
smaller alpha
alpharesults
resultsin
in aa smoother
smoother
line
linein
inthis
thisexample
example
900
800 Demand
Demand
700 0 .1
600 0 .6
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Week
34
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Problem (2) Data
35
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Problem (2) Solution
560 Actual
550
540
Demand 530 Forecast
520
510
500
490
480
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Month
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Deseasoning Demand: Seasonal Index
Seasonal index represents the extent of seasonal
influence for a particular segment of the year. The
calculation involves a comparison of the expected
values of that period to the grand mean.
The formula for computing seasonal factors is:
Si = Di/D,
where:
Si = the seasonal index for ‘i’ th period,
Di = the average values of ‘i’ th period,
D = grand average,
i = the ith seasonal period of the cycle
40
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
ProblemStep 4: Divide Actual Step 2: Add data in Col. 2
sales (Col. 2) with the and 5. Then divide by ‘2’
seasonal
The sales data for factor
two years are(Col. 7) with the sales data aggregated in periods of
given
two months.
Month, 2003 Sales Deseasoned Month, 2004 Sales Average Seasonal Deseasoned
Demand factor Demand
Jan – Feb 109.0 125.29 Jan – Feb 115.0 112.0 0.87 132.18
Mar – Apr 104.0 125.30 Mar – Apr 112.0 108.0 0.83 130.12
May – June 150.0 126.05 May – June 159.0 154.5 1.19 133.61
Step 3: Divide Col. 6
112/129.42 = 0.87
Jul – Aug 170.0 125.00 Jul – Aug 182.0 176.0 1.36 133.82
Sept – Oct 120.0 126.32 Sept – Oct 126.0 123.0 0.95 132.63
Nov – Dec 100.0 125.00 Nov – Dec 106.0 103.0 0.80 132.50
Total 753 800
Step 1: Add data in Col. 2 and divide by ‘n’. Then add data in Col. 2 and divide by
‘n’. Determine the average. (753/6 + 800/6)/2 = (125.5 + 133.33)/2 = 129.42
yt=f(x) or yt = a + bx
Where:
‘yt’ is the dependent variable
‘a’ is the Y intercept
‘b’ is the slope of the line, and
‘x’ is the time period
yt = a + bx
Is
Isthe
thelinear
linearregression
regressionmodel
model
45
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Simple Linear Regression Formulas
For Calculating “a” and “b”
a = y - bx
∑ xy - n(y)(x)
b= 2 2
∑ x - n(x )
46
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Problem
Question:
Question: Given
Given the
thedata
data below,
below, what
what isis the
the simple
simple linear
linear
regression
regressionmodel
model that
that can
can be
be used
used to
to predict
predict sales
salesin
in
future
futureweeks?
weeks?
Week Sales
1 150
2 157
3 162
4 166
5 177
47
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
48
Answer:
Answer: First,
First,using
using the
thelinear
linear regression
regressionformulas,
formulas, we
we
can
can compute
compute“a” “a”and
and“b”
“b”
Week Week*Week Sales Week*Sales
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885
3 55 162.4 2499
Average Sum Average Sum
b=
∑ xy - n( y)( x) 2499 - 5(162.4)(3
=
)
=
63
= 6.3
∑x - n( x )
2 2
55 − 5(9 ) 10
180
175
170
165
160 Sales
Sales
155 Forecast
150
145
140
135
1 2 3 4 5
Period
49
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Correlation Analysis
Correlation analysis measures the degree of relationship
between normally distributed dependent and
independent variables and is signified by the correlation
coefficient ‘r’.
Mathematically, correlation coefficient is defined by:
2
Sxy
r = 1- 2
Sy
Where:
•Syx 2 is the standard error of the estimated regression
equation of the ‘y’ values on ‘x’, and
•Sy2 is the standard error for the ‘y’ values
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Multiple Regression
With multiple regressions, we can use more than one
predictor.
Where:
β0 is the intercept, and
β1, β2, . . . βn are coefficients
representing the contribution
of the independent variables
X1, X2,..., Xn.
∑ Actual − forecast
MAD =
n
2
∑ ( Actual − forecast)
MSE =
n -1
Actual − Forecast
∑ Actual
× 100
MAPE =
n
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
MAD Characteristics
1 M A D≈ 0.8 standard deviat
ion
1 standarddeviation≈ 1.25 M AD
The larger the MAD, the less the accurate the resulting
model
56
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
MAD Problem (1)
Question:
Question: What
What is
isthe
theMAD
MADvalue
valuegiven
given the
the
forecast
forecast values
valuesin
inthe
thetable
tablebelow?
below?
40
n
Note
Notethat
thatby
byitself,
itself,the
theMAD
∑A
t=1
t - Ft
40 only
onlylets
letsus
usknow
knowthe
MAD
themean
mean
MAD = = = 10 error
errorininaaset
setofofforecasts
forecasts
n 4
Depending on the number of MAD’s selected, the TS can be used like a quality control chart
indicating when the model is generating too much error in its forecasts.
MAD
60
Prof. Upendra Kachru Operations Management
Control Charts
0 ±2 MSE or±
0 3 MSE
Historical Analogy
Method
Executive Opinion
Method
Survey Methods
The Delphi Method
Operations Management
Executive Opinion Method
Technique Low Sales High Sales
Manager’s 40.7% 39.6%
Opinion
Executive’s 40.7% 41.6%
Opinion
Sales Force 29.6% 35.4%
Composite
Number in 27 48
Sample