Do you think it is

possible for you to

determine the chance
of occurrence of an
event?
 What are my chances of
getting the correct
How likely is it
What answer
are the inthat I willorbeShould I bring my
a True
False-type
possible routes of Question?
called to recite in umbrella
Multiple
that I can take in
our math class tomorrow?
choice-type
question?
going to school? today? Will I probably
win in this game?
BASIC CONCEPT OF
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY is…
- a branch of mathematics
that deals with
uncertainty.
- a measure or estimation
of how likely it is that
event will occur.
PROBABILITY is…
- derived from the Latin word
probare, which means “to
prove” or “to test”.
- also closely related in meaning
to likely or doubtful.
-

- involved even in a simple

situation.
1. If today is Wednesday, tomorrow will be Thursday.
2. Today you will meet President Lincoln on the way
home from school.
3. When you flip a coin it will land head up.
Vocabulary:
 Experiment – a process that has a number of
distinct possible outcomes in which the result
cannot be predicted with certainty.
 Outcome – one possible result of the
experiment.
 Sample Space – the list of possible outcomes
of an experiment.
 Event – it is the subset of sample space
Example 1:

Experiment Sample Space

Flipping two coins HH HT TH TT

Rolling a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Rolling a coin and a die H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6

simultaneously T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6
Drawing a card from a deck 13 DIAMONDS 13 HEARTS
of 52 cards 13 SPADES 13 CLUBS
ACE, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
JACK, QUEEN, KING
Example 2.
When you rolled a die once, there are possible
outcomes which are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Getting an even number includes 3 outcomes.

What are those?

2, 4, 6.

“Getting an even number” is called an event.

Methods
 Table
 Tree Diagram
 Systematic Listing
 Fundamental Counting Principle
Example Problem
 Suppose you went on a trip and bought with
you 4 blouses and 3 pairs of pants. How
many different outfits can you wear during
your trip?
Using TABLE
 Blouse – 1, 2, 3, 4
 Pants - a, b, c

a b c
1 a1 b1 c1
2 a2 b2 c2
3 a3 b3 c3
4 a4 b4 c4
Using SYSTEMATIC LISTING
 Blouse – 1, 2, 3, 4
 Pants - a, b, c

(1, a) (1, b) (1,c)

(2, a) (2, b) (2,c)

(3, a) (3, b) (3,c)

(4, a) (4, b) (4,c)

Using TREE DIAGRAM
 Blouse – 1, 2, 3, 4
 Pants - a, b, c

1 2 3 4

a b c a b c a b c a b c
Example Problem
 You go to a restaurant to buy some breakfast.
The menu says, for food : pancakes, waffles, or
fries; and for drinks : coffee, juice, hot
chocolate, and tea. How many different choices
of food and drink do you have?
Example Problem 1
Starbucks serves two desserts: a
cake and a pie. They also serve
three beverages: coffee, tea, and
juice. Suppose you choose one
dessert and one beverage. How
many possible outcomes are there?
Example Problem 2
Rene Alarcon is a DJ. He chooses different
types of records for each hour of his three-
hour program. The possible choices are listed
below. How many possible outcomes are there?

First Hour Second Hour Third Hour

Rock Instrumental Opera
Folk Jazz Classical
FUNDAMENTAL
PRINCIPLE OF
COUNTING
If one thing can occur in m ways and
a second thing can occur in n ways,
and a third thing can occur p ways,
and so on, then the sequence of
things can occur in
m x n x p x … ways.
Example Problem 1
Starbucks serves two desserts: a
cake and a pie. They also serve
three beverages: coffee, tea, and
juice. Suppose you choose one
dessert and one beverage. How
many possible outcomes are there?

(2)(3) = 6 possible outcomes.

Example Problem 2
In how many ways can a student
answer a 6-item multiple choice test
in which every item has four
choices?
Example Problem 3
In how many ways can a student
answer a 3-item multiple choice test
in which A, B, C and D are the
choices?
Example Problem 4
An identification card is made up of
three letters. How many
identification cards are possible to
form by the letters A, B, C and D?
Example Problem 5
An identification card is made up of
three letters. How many
identification cards are possible to
form by A, B, C and D if letters
can’t be repeated in the same
identification card?
PROBABILITY
OF AN
EVENT
Probability of an Event

What is a PROBABILITY?

- Probability is the chance that some

event will happen

- It is the ratio of the number of

ways a certain event can occur to
the total number of possible
outcomes.
Properties of Probability

1. 0≤ 𝑷(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏
- P(E)=0, if the event cannot occur
- P(E)=1, if the event occurs anytime
- Otherwise, the probability is a fraction
between 0 to 1.
2. σ 𝑷 𝑬 = 𝟏
3. P(A) + P’(A) = 1
Probability of an event

What is a PROBABILITY?

P(event) = number of favorable outcomes

number of sample space

Examples that use Probability:

(1) Dice, (2) Spinners, (3) Coins, (4) Deck of

Cards, (5) Evens/Odds, (6) Alphabet, etc.
How do we express probabilities?

■ Usually, we express probabilities as fractions.

– The numerator is the number of ways the
event can occur.
– The denominator is the number of sample
space/ possible events that could occur.
■ Let’s look at an example!
Probability of Simple Events

Example 1: Roll a dice.

What is the probability of rolling a 4?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes

1
P(rolling a 4) = 6

The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6

Probability of Simple Events

Example 2: Roll a dice.

What is the probability of rolling an even
number?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes

3 1
P(even #) = 6 = 2

The probability of rolling an even number is 3 out of 6 or .5

or 50%
 Probability of Simple Events

Example 3: Spinners.
What is the probability of spinning green?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes

1 1
P(green) = 4
= 4

The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 4 or .25 or

25%
 Probability of Simple Events

Example 4: Flip a coin.

What is the probability of flipping a tail?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes

1
P(tail) =
2

The probability of getting a tail is 1 out of 2 or .5 or 50%

 Probability of Simple Events

Example 5: Numbers
What is the probability of getting an even
number from numbers 1 - 5?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) = # possible outcomes

2
P(even) =
5

The probability of getting an even number is 2 out of 5 or

.4 or 40%
 Probability of Simple Events

Example 6: Cards
What is the probability of getting a heart
from a deck of cards?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) = # possible outcomes

13 1
P(heart) = =
52 4

The probability of getting an even number is 1 out of 4 or

.25 or 25%
Probability of Simple Events

Ex 7. Real World Example:

A computer company manufactures 2,500
computers each day. An average of 100
of these computers are returned with
defects. What is the probability that the
computer you purchased is not defective?

P(not defective) = # not defective = 2,400 = 24

total # manufactured 2,500 25
What is the probability that I will
choose a red marble?
■ In this bag of marbles, there are:
– 3 red marbles
– 2 white marbles
– 1 purple marble
– 4 green marbles
 Ask yourself the following questions:
1. How many red marbles are in the bag?
2. How many marbles are in the bag IN ALL?

3
10
Probability of Simple Events
Real World Example:
Best Buy is having an IPOD giveaway.
They put all the IPOD Shuffles in a
bag. Customers may choose an IPOD
without looking at the color. Inside the
bag are 4 orange, 5 blue, 6 green, and
5 pink IPODS. If Maria chooses one
IPOD at random, what is the probability
she will choose an orange IPOD?
Probability of Simple Events
Real World Example:
Best Buy is having an IPOD giveaway.
They put all the IPOD Shuffles in a
bag. Customers may choose an IPOD
without looking at the color. Inside the
bag are 4 orange, 5 blue, 6 green, and
5 pink IPODS. If Maria chooses one
IPOD at random, what is the probability
she will choose an orange IPOD?

P(orange) = 4/20 = 2/10 = 1/5 or 20%

ACTIVITY
1/2 5/9 3/4 4/5
1/6
1/10 1/13 5/9 1/2
3/7
3/10 1/4 2/5
1/5 1
3/10 1/5
2/11 1/6 9/11
1/4 1/2
4/11 2/5 7/12
0 6/11 2/5 3/20
1/10
REVIEW
TIME!!!
Vocabulary:
 Experiment – a process that has a number of
distinct possible outcomes in which the result
cannot be predicted with certainty.
A. Tree Diagram
B. Systematic Listing
C. Fundamental Counting Principles
 Outcome – one possible result of the
experiment.
 Sample Space – the list of possible outcomes
of an experiment.
Probability of Simple Events

What is a PROBABILITY?

- Probability is the chance that some

event will happen

- It is the ratio of the number of

ways a certain event can occur to
the number of possible outcomes
A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Find the probability of:

a. ‘2’ of spades
b. a jack
c. a king of red color
d. a card of diamond
e. a king or a queen
f. a non-face card
g. a black face card
A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Find the probability of:

h. a black card
i. a non-ace
j. non-face card of black color
k. neither a spade nor a jack
l. neither a heart nor a red king
Two different coins are tossed randomly. Find the
probability of:

a. getting two heads

b. Getting two tails
c. Getting one tail
d. Getting no head
e. Getting at least one head
f. Getting at least one tail
g. Getting one head one tail
Activity Time!!!!
Title: Rock Paper Scissors
■Divide the class into pairs and
have them play the game eighteen
times.
■Once the class has finished, record
the results for player A is one color,
and player B in another color.
Answer the following questions to determine if the game is fair.
1. How many outcomes does the game have?
2. Count the number of wins for A.
3. Find the probability A will win in any round.
4. Count the number of wins for B.
5. Find the probability B will win in any round.
6. Is the game fair? Do both players have an equal probability of
winning any round?
7. Use a tree diagram and label each possible outcome as to win
for a, b, or tie.