PROJECT:

Hydro-Statistic Analysis
of Barun Gol Catchment
 Project Team

1. Prince Mahmood 275098

2. Zain Syed 277060
3. Ali Hassan Khan
4. Qammar Abbas Syed
5. M Arslan
 Table of Content:
• Introduction & Overview of
the Topography
• Objectives
• Statistical Analysis with
Results
 Introduction & Overview of the Topography
• Barun Gol catchment is sub-catchment of Chitral catchment located in
Chitral district,KPK Pakistan.
• Catchment is consist of high elevation terrain, most part of it remained
covered with Glaciers over all year.
• Main Tributary of Catchment is Barun River, which is then immersed into the
Chitral river.
• River bed of Barun river is steep and unstable consist of high velocity flow
remain which is mostly venerable to flash flooding.

Location District Chitral, KPK Pakistan

Area of Catchment 241 sq.KM
Mean Elevation 2320 m (MASL)
Guage Co-ordinates Lat/Long 36 07 54.93/ 72 03 19.01
 Objective

• Basic purpose of this study is to investigate the catchment characteristic of

water regime of the Barun river as Chitral river being the main independent
tributary.
• Influence of the Climate upon the regime of the catchment.
• Presentation objective is to providing insight to primary statistical analysis
in a field of water Resources and Hydrology.
 Statistical Analysis
Basic Analysis that are Performed in Report
• Seasonal Flow Representation
• Descriptive Trends Analysis
• Regression Analysis
• Flood Analysis
• Water Availability (FDC)

Given data provide is here stated below:

• Chitral River flow 10-daily data (2002-2015)
• Barun River flow Daily data (2012-2015)
• Rainfall data (2012-2015)
 Statistical Analysis
Seasonal Flow Representation:
For Evaluate the General idea of Seasonal impact of the river flow we need
to carry out the following 2 representative analysis:
• Chitral River vs Barun River Discharge.
• Barun river vs Regional Rainfall
Current analysis will be performed over the time period range 2012-2015.
 Statistical Analysis
Seasonal Flow Chitral River Vs Barun River Disharge Relationship

Representation:
• The graph illustrate the
10000.00

basic similarity in flow 1000.00

trends Between Chitral

Discharge (cumec)
River and Barun River.
100.00

• It suggest overall hydro-

climatic conditions can be 10.00

assumed same of Chitral

catchment and Barun 1.00

catchment. Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2012 2013 2014 2015

• Trend show the summer Time period

yield high amount of flow

than winter. Barun Gol River Chitral River
 Statistical Analysis
180 Relationship Average Monthly rainfall vs Average Monthly Discharge
160

140
rainfall/Discharge magnitude

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013 2014 2015
Time Period

Rainfall Flow of Barun Gol

 Statistical Analysis
Seasonal Flow Representation:
• Over here the rain record of near by station is compared with the monthly
flows of river.
• It can be visualized that the these two are not forming any correlation.
• From this analysis we can extract the information about catchment:
• During summer season (April-Sep) Monsoon rainfall has relatively low Flux
over the entire Chitral region, therefore the primary source of river
discharge is snow melting form the Glaciers.
• During Winter Season winter (Oct-March) Precipitation become the main
source for provide runoff but the runoff remain considerable low than
summer due to low temperature in winter which keeps the precipitation
retained in snow pack over the period.
 Statistical Analysis

Descriptive Trend Analysis

1. Flow Trends of Chitral River
a) Mean Yearly Discharge of Chitral River
b) Mean Monthly Discharge Per Year of Chitral River
c) Mean Monthly Discharge in Summer Per Year of Chitral River
2. Flow Trends of Barun Gol River
a) Mean Yearly Discharge of Barun Gol River
b) Mean Monthly Discharge Per Year of Barun Gol River
c) Mean Monthly Discharge in Summer Per Year of Barun Gol River
 Descriptive Trend Analysis
(Flow Trends of Chitral River)
• Mean Yearly Discharge of Chitral Mean Yearly Discharge of Chitral River
River 400

• During the analysis of the 350

discharge of the Chitral river the 300

Mean Flow (m³/s)

extreme event found to be in the 250

year of 2005 which was 365.98 200

m³/s. But after that flow 150

decreases gradually year by year 100

till 2010. But suddenly in 2012 50

mean flow decreased to its 0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
minimum value in 2012. Years
 Descriptive Trend Analysis
(Flow Trends of Chitral River)
• Mean Monthly Discharge Per Mean Monthly Discharge Per Year of Chitral River
Year of Chitral River
• The trend shows that flow starts 900

to increase in May, with maximum 800

runoff occurring in July in Chitral 700

Mean Flows (m³/s)

river. The July peak flow (i.e 854 600

m3/s) is constant in all years this is 500

because of the end of a snowmelt 400

as a major source of surface 300

runoff, as the winter snow deposit 200

is removed due to higher 100

temperature in upper Chitral 0

jan feb mar apr may june july aug sep oct nov dec
Basin. Months
 Descriptive Trend Analysis
(Flow Trends of Barun Gol River)
Mean Yearly Discharge of Barun Gol River

• Mean Yearly Discharge of

10 9.61

Barun Gol River

Mean Flows (cumec)

8

• This is the mean yearly 7

6.90
6.26

Discharge of Barun Gol river 6 5.45

from (2012-2015). 5

4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Years

Flows
 Descriptive Trend Analysis
(Flow Trends of Barun Gol River)
• Mean Monthly Discharge Per
Year of Barun Gol River Mean Monthly Discharge Per Year of Barun Gol River

• The Fig shows the Mean monthly 25

Discharge Per Year of Barun Gol 20

river. The same trend is followed

Mean Flows (m³/s)

15
by the Barun Gol river as like
Chitral river. The trend shows the 10

maximum flow occurs in the 5

month of July. 0
jan feb mar apr may june july aug sep oct nov dec
Months
 Descriptive Trend Analysis
(Flow Trends of Barun Gol River)
• Mean Monthly Discharge in
Summer Per Year of Barun Gol Mean Monthly Discharge in Summer Per Year of Barun Gol
River River

• This Fig shows the Mean Monthly 25

Discharge in Summer Per Year of

Barun Gol River which describes 20

Mean Flows (m³/s)

the Max flow occurs in the July. 15
This is due to the snow melt
runoff which is due to increase in 10

the Temperature in the Summer

which has fallen in winter. 5

0
may june july aug sep
Months
 Average
Average Barun_Rive
Month 10-daily Chitral r

Statistical Analysis I
2012-2015 (2012-

84.95
2015)
1.50
Jan II 81.81 1.46

Regression Analysis: Feb

III
I
II
78.78
75.12
72.02
1.46
1.40
1.36

• Regression analysis is carried out to determine the Mar

III
I
II
70.38
69.69
72.12
1.23
1.25
1.37
magnitude of flow from the time period 2002 -2011. III 79.18 1.52
I 91.02 1.75

• For regression analysis Chitral flow was selected base upon

Apr II
III
I
107.09
135.61
169.88
2.41
3.15
3.86
the following reason: May II 229.29 4.70
III 281.36 6.69

1. From the Seasonal Flow analysis Chitral flow have shown some of the similar Jun
I
II
366.09
536.32
10.15
12.45
trend to Barun river. III 708.90 15.91
I 828.22 16.58

2. Hydro-Climatic Condition are considered same. Jul II

III
856.98
877.04
22.25
29.98
I 893.86 22.97
3. Chitral river is main tributary. Aug II
III
760.57
615.23
16.28
14.10

• For the purpose of regression analysis average flow of both Sep

I
II
III
464.40
368.91
272.14
13.54
10.58
8.17
tributaries having same time period (2012-2015) was chosen I 209.23 6.33
Oct II 174.10 3.44
to and linear regression line is drawn. (Graph is shown below) III 143.38 2.81
I 129.46 2.62
Nov II 122.47 2.47
III 115.68 2.32
I 104.21 2.23
Dec II 99.56 1.93
III 93.35 1.68
 Statistical Analysis
Regression Analysis: Regression Model

• Over here graphs depicts the

35.00

correlation & linear regression. 30.00

y = 0.0262x - 0.5373
R² = 0.9445
equation between both flow. “Y” 25.00

Barun River Flow (cumec)

being Barun river flow while “X”
being Chitral river Flow. 20.00

• Correlation of “0.9445” show 15.00

the strong dependence of Barun 10.00

river upon Chitral river. That

conclusion can be 5.00

understandable due to the 0.00

reason that selected data 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Chitral River Flow (cumec)
700 800 900 1000

fulfilled upon assumed criteria.

 Statistical Analysis
Regression Analysis:
• Upon completion of correlation criteria, regression analysis is used to get
the unknown range values (2002-2011) of 10-daily averages of Barun Gol
river flows.
• Similarly the maximum 10-daily average flows can be determined by using
same procedure which are to be discussed in Flood analysis.
 Avg Barun Avg.Max
months 10-daily Gol Barun Gol
I 1.54 1.50

Statistical Analysis Jan

II
III
I
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.40
II 1.46 1.36
Feb 1.39 1.23
III
I 1.26 1.25

Flood Analysis: Mar

II
III
I
1.46
1.77
2.04
1.37
1.52
1.75
II 2.70 2.41
Flood analysis is carried out in 2-Phases. Apr
III 4.09 3.15
I 4.40 3.86
II 5.18 4.70
1- Evaluating Maximum values by Regression Analysis. May
III 8.60 6.69
I 11.46 10.15
 In this step the 10-daily maximum averaged flow of 2012-2015 is compared to Jun
II
III
13.28
20.29
12.45
15.91
10-daily average of flow of 2012-2015 of Barun Gol as averaged 10-daily I 19.78 16.58
II 24.54 22.25
maximum being the depended. Shown here in table. Jul
III 65.10 29.98
27.14 22.97

I
Relationship is derived is how below: Aug
II 21.42 16.28
III 16.78 14.10
I 14.65 13.54
II 13.04 10.58
Sep 9.74 8.17
III
I 7.30 6.33
II 5.21 3.44
Oct 3.11 2.81
III
I 2.69 2.62
II 2.63 2.47
Nov 2.42 2.32
III
I 2.28 2.23
II 2.17 1.93
Dec 1.81 1.68
III
 Statistical Analysis
Averaged 10-daily Maximum vs Averaged 10-daily Flow (2012-2015)

Flood Analysis:
70.00

60.00

• The relationship y = 1.0346x1.0738

Averaged 10-daily Maximum Flow

50.00 R² = 0.9883
derived over here show
strong power 40.00

correlation of “0.9883”. 30.00

Which enable us 20.00

determined the 10-daily

maximum flow record 10.00

of 2002-2011 through 0.00

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
equation Averaged 10-daily Flow
 Statistical Analysis
Flood Analysis: Camparison of Maximum and Average Flow
• Graph depict the average 70.00

annual maximum flow and 60.00

Average Flow over the 50.00

Discharhe cumec
Time Period.
•
40.00

It show most of extreme

30.00
deviation in flows are
taken place during the 20.00

extreme temperatures of 10.00

July. This can be true as 0.00

rate of melting of snow is I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III I II III
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
on the peak in given high 10-Dily Flow
steep region. 10-daily Average Flow 10-Daily Averaged Maximum Flow
 Statistical Analysis
Flood Analysis:
2- Determining the Probability and Return Period through Weibul s’
Method.
 From the newly formed record maximum annual flow is noted and
series was prepared from 2002-2015.
 One of the common method to apply extreme value analysis in water
resources is Plotting Position, In this annual flood values are provided
with ranks in ascending order (higher-lower).
 Basic concept of ranking is to discretize the flow extreme values and to
compute the cumulative distribution of probability (CDP).
 In our studies we have imply the famous Weibul plotting position
method to calculate CDP.
 Below table show the analysis and arrangements.
 Statistical Analysis
Flood Analysis: Years
Flood Sorted
(cumec) Years
Sorted Flood Ranking Weibul Prob.
Weibul Return
Period (yrs)

2- Determining the Probability 2002 22.81 2015 51.39 1 0.0625 16.00

and Return Period through 2003 30.77 2005 35.49 2 0.125 8.00
Weibul s’ Method. 2004 22.45 2014 33.95 3 0.1875 5.33

 Provided tabular data depicts 2005 35.49 2003 30.77 4 0.25 4.00
the Weibul method of return 2006 29.87 2006 29.87 5 0.3125 3.20
period and probability 2007 26.07 2013 28.90 6 0.375 2.67
calculation. The formula of 2008 23.84 2010 27.92 7 0.4375 2.29
weibul is given above where 2009 25.11 2007 26.07 8 0.5 2.00
N=total number of 2010 27.92 2009 25.11 9 0.5625 1.78
years.M=ranking 2011 19.08 2008 23.84 10 0.625 1.60
 Return period is calculated by 2012 15.72 2002 22.81 11 0.6875 1.45
1/Probability. 2013 28.90 2004 22.45 12 0.75 1.33
2014 33.95 2011 19.08 13 0.8125 1.23
2015 51.39 2012 15.72 14 0.875 1.14
 Statistical Analysis
Flood Analysis:
• Graph shows the 60.00
Relationship Between Flood and Return Period

relationship between
50.00
return period and flood
values calculated of 14 40.00
y = 19.804x0.3643

Flood (cumec)
years. 30.00
R² = 0.8994
• From this we can also find 20.00

out the flood values and

their relative returned 10.00

periods. 0.00
1.00 10.00 100.00
Return Period
 Statistical Analysis
Water Availability :
• Appraisal of water availability become necessary to evaluate when to assess
the capability of resources for any scheme include hydro-power/ water
supply etc.
• For water availability hydrologist needed find out over the time period how
much water can assess. For this purpose FLOW DURATION CURVES (FDC)
are prepared to check for the available capacity of water.
• Flow duration curve are composed of cumulative probability vs Discharge of
river.
 Statistical Analysis
Water Availability : Flow Duration Curve

• Graph depict at certain 35.0

percentage of the time the 30.0

specific value of flow occurs . 25.0

• Over her we can estimate at

Flow (cumec)
20.0
30% of the time around 7
cumec of discharge keeps 15.0

flowing. While 100% of time 10.0

the lowest recorded discharge

keep flowing. 5.0

• 30% values are generally 0.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

considered optimum. %age of Probability Exceed

 The End
Any Question?