RISK

ESTIMATION
RISK ESTIMATION

1. What Is Risk?
2. Probability and Risk
3. Risk-Reliability Relationship
 01
What Is Risk?
WHAT IS RISK?

According to the US Army

Corps. of Engineers, RISK is
defined as exposure to an
undesirable event.
 Risk involves exposure to
some type of danger and the
possibility of loss or injury.
Source: Investopedia.com.
SERIOUSNESS OF RISK

I II III IV
May result in May cause May cause Hazard
death. severe injury, and minor injury presents a
major property and property minimal threat
damage. damage. to safety or
health.
02
Probability And Risk
 ● Probability is a numerical index of
risk.

● It is a measure of how often a

particular event will happen if
something done repeatedly.

● A probability of 0 indicates that there

RISK AND is no chance that a particular event
PROBABILITY will occur, whereas a probability of 1
indicates that an event is certain to
occur.
03
Risk-Reliability
Relationship
 In hydrology, the concepts of risk is one of the
fundamental elements to the analysis of extreme
hydrological events for the fields of water resource
systems planning, and management as well as for
flood and drought risk assessment and mitigation.
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
OF RAINFALL/FLOOD
DATA
 Frequency
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF
RAINFALL/FLOOD DATA

is the number of times that

something happens during
particular period.
Risk-Reliability Relationship

Reliability is the Risk is the

probability that a probability that a
particular flood particular flood
magnitude is never magnitude is
equaled or exceeded equaled or
in the design life of exceeded at least
structure. once in the design
life of structure.
RECALL FORMULA FOR
RETURN PERIOD (T) CALIFORNIA WEIBULL’S HAZEN’S
FORMULA FORMULA FORMULA

𝑁 𝑁+1 𝑁
𝑇= 𝑇= 𝑇=
𝑚 𝑚 𝑚 − 0.5

Where:
N= total number of data
m= rank assigned
PROBABILITY (P)
Favorable
Probability = ________________
Total no. of Events

1
Probability =
𝑇
Plotting Position Method
For example: These are the collected rain fall data from the past 30 to 35 years in Delhi.

Q(𝑚3 /𝑠) Arrange in decreasing order Rank

65 140 1 3
45 90 2 p=
6
35 80 3
80 65 4 p = 0.5
90 45 5
140 35 6
 How do we calculate
reliability and risk probability?

Binomial Event
It is an event which has only two possible outcomes
and is suited for analysis as either flood can occur
or flood cannot occur.
Where:
P = Probability of occurring an event q = 1- P
q = probability of not occurring an event
r = times out of n trials n 𝒏!
𝑪𝒓 =
𝒏 − 𝒓 ! 𝒓!
RELIABILITY MEANS THERE
IS NO RISK.
In reliability, the value of ‘r’ is ZERO.

0 0 0

RELIABILITY = 𝑞𝑛
Since q = 1- P, therefore:

RELIABILITY = (𝟏 − 𝑷)𝒏
RISKS OPPOSES
RELIABILITY.
The value of ‘r’ is ONE or MORE
(it means it has exceeded)

RISK = 1- (𝟏 − 𝑷)𝒏
Example:
On the basis of rainfall map 50 years, 24hrs
maximum rainfall at Delhi is found to be 16 cm. Find
the probability of 24hrs rainfall of magnitude equal
to or greater than 16 cm occurring at Delhi
a.) one in 10 successive years
b.) twice in 10 successive years
c.) at least one in 10 successive years.
T = 50
N = 10

𝟏
P= = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐
𝟓𝟎
On the basis of rainfall map 50 years, 24hrs
maximum rainfall at Delhi is found to be 16 cm. Find
the probability of 24hrs rainfall of magnitude equal
to or greater than 16 cm occurring at Delhi
a.) one in 10 successive years
r=1
n = 10

= n C1 p1 q10−1
10!
= (0.02)1 (1 − 0.02)9
9!1!

= 16.67 %
On the basis of rainfall map 50 years, 24hrs
maximum rainfall at Delhi is found to be 16 cm. Find
the probability of 24hrs rainfall of magnitude equal
to or greater than 16 cm occurring at Delhi
b.) twice in 10 successive years
r=2
n = 10

= n C2 p2 q10−2
10!
= (0.02)2 (1 − 0.02)8
8!2!

= 1.53 %
On the basis of rainfall map 50 years, 24hrs
maximum rainfall at Delhi is found to be 16 cm. Find
the probability of 24hrs rainfall of magnitude equal
to or greater than 16 cm occurring at Delhi
c. at least one in 10 successive years.

Risk = 1 − (1 − p)n
= 1 − (1 − 0.02)10

= 18.29 %
References:

www.thegateacademy.com
Thank you!