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Group 3

• Ayush Chhablani 2018138



Revenue •
Anupam Roy 2018072
Aditi Nandihalli 2018193
Management • Manoj Kuchipudi 2018028
• Mohd. Sohail 2018030
• Tanika Roychowdhury 2018121
1) Forecast Bias
Week Week Pick up Ratio Tracking Signal Forecast Bias
1.2 1.5
1 Saturday 0.972 1
2 Saturday 0.912 1 1 1

3 Saturday 1.056 -1 0.8 0.5

4 Saturday 0.952 1
0.6 0
5 Saturday 0.915 1
6 Saturday 0.957 1 0.4 -0.5

7 Saturday 1.083 -1 0.2 -1

8 Saturday 0.96 1 0 -1.5

9 Saturday 0.914 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Pick up Ratio Tracking Signal


10 Saturday 0.846 1
11 Saturday 0.913 1
• The total tracking signal turns up to be +9, which
12 Saturday 0.942 1 suggests that there has been an under forecasting
13 Saturday 0.987 1
14 Saturday --- • This can further be verified by comparing the pickup
Total 21,078 9 ratios and the tracking signal for specific periods
Hotels have different
demands in different
seasons. Based on it hotels
may work with only a part Guests are not classified
Effect of seasonality is not
of room inventory during based on the demographic
taken into consideration
low demand season to and psychographic traits
reduce the overheads
associated with excess
rooms

Seasonality, Trend,

Question 2 A holistic model of all


drivers of market demand
is not done
Drivers for overall demand
management approach are
as follows:
Lifecycle, Short term
demand sensing and long
term demand sensing

Conclusion: We can use a


Accurately predict not only Not Scalable to handle hybrid method taking
the “how much”, but also reservation, corporate, and seasonality and trend from
the “why” e-com demand streams Holt winter method and
predict using Decision tree
Marriot Hotel EMV No seasonality has been 14 weeks data have
Approach considered taken

QUESTION – 3 Historical data of only


last 4 weeks have been
Demand Management
Combined weighted
average of short term &
Concept long term have been
considered.
taken.

cancelation request
data from the following
52 weeks are used for rates to simulate
6 weeks are used in
initialization of the random reservation
obtaining the
forecast parameters requests as well as
reservation
cancelation requests
Rooms Available EMV using
EMV using Holt in Holt Winter Decision Tree
Winter Method Method Method
Optimal 170910 190392
Practical 158317.8458 1699.087176 162971
Pessimistic 152917.8458 1699.087176 162795
Risk Adverse 13799581.46 157216

• Based on both the methods Mariott hotel should definitely accept


QUESTION – 3 the reservation from the tour operator
Marriot case

• Uses decision tree approach


• Probabilities calculated based on examination of
historical data
• EMV calculated for optimal, practical, pessimistic and risk
adverse scenarios
• Decision made based on EMV calculated

4a) Difference Research approach

in approach • Forecasting done on the basis of short term (60 days


before arrival) and long term
• Final forecast = LT weight*LT forecast + ST weight * ST
forecast
• As the arrival date approaches, weight of ST component
increases
• LT forecasting takes into consideration seasonality factor
• Considers error factor as well which can be reduced over
the period by multiple iterations
• Marriott Approach
• Analysed 7 different probability Including worst scenario and best scenario
• As per the forecasting 94.7 % occupancy rate on Aug 18

• Research Approach

4b) Practical • If forecast is made with long term view than actual demand is near to actual demand but
when forecast is made with short term time than the short term forecast is nearer to
actual demand.

RM • So we use combined weighted approach with proportionality weightage given to short


term and long term forecast
• S.T = (Net reservation held * cancellation rate)+ net reservation turned down
consideration = 1562 * 0.947
= 1480
But we can see that in week 13 total demand was 1542 so it was not accurate and
here the expertise of revenue manager, FOM and Reservation manager plays and
important role
4c Accuracy of Results 25000.00
Holt-Winters

20000.00

Decision Holt 15000.00


tree Winters Sales
Ft
10000.00
0.93 0.875349
5000.00

0.00
Exponential smoothing 0 5 10 15
25000.00

20000.00

15000.00 Thus, Decision tree is having more accuracy.


Sales
Exponential
10000.00

5000.00

0.00
0 5 10 15
Thank You