Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Ruben Guajardo
Deepak Navnith
MS&E 269
Victor Torres
Kuan Zhang
Professor:
Neil Kane
AA STRATEGY
STRATEGYFOR
FORPERFORMANCE
PERFORMANCE
EXCELLENCE
EXCELLENCE
•
4000 wrong medical prescriptions each year
•
More than 3000 newborns accidentally falling
from the hands of nurses or doctors each year
Two
• long or short landings at American airports each day
400
• letters per hour which never arrive at their destination
HowSIX
canSIGMA
we get these
results
Six Sigma
SIX SIGMA
What is Six Sigma
A Vision and Philosophical commitment
to our consumers to offer the highest quality,
lowest cost products
Old Belief
4 High Quality = High Cost
Quality
Internal & Prevention &
External Appraisal
Costs Failure Costs Costs
New Belief 4
New Belief
High Quality = Low Cost 5
6
Quality
SIX SIGMA
3 Sigma Vs. 6 Sigma
The 3 sigma Company The 6 sigma Company
• Spends 15~25% of sales dollars • Spends 5% of sales dollars on
on cost of failure cost of failure
• Relies on inspection to find • Relies on capable process that
defects don’t produce defects
• Does not have a disciplined • Use Measure, Analyze, Improve,
approach to gather and analyze Control and Measure, Analyze,
data Design
• Benchmarks themselves • Benchmarks themselves
against their competition against the best in the world
• Believes 99% is good enough • Believes 99% is unacceptable
D
RE
2
( xi x )
SO
=
n 1
N
Sigma = = Deviation
CE
( Square root of variance )
-2
-1
-4
-3
1
2
3
5
6
7
0
4
between + / - 1 68.27 % result: 317300 ppm outside
(deviation)
between + / - 2 95.45 % 45500 ppm
2 308,537 80 800000
70 From 5 to 6 700000
3 66,811 60 600000
50 500000
% Change
PPM % Change
PPM
40 400000
4 6,210 30 From 4 to 5 300000
20 200000
233
From 3 to 4
5 10
From 1 to 2
100000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
6 3.4
Process Sigma
Process Defects per Million
Capability Opportunities
Focusing on
Focusing on requires
requires thorough
thorough process
process
understanding
understanding and
and breakthrough
breakthrough thinking
thinking
SIX SIGMA
Six Sigma as a Tool
Process Mapping Tolerance Analysis
Baselining SPC
Many
Many familiar
familiar quality
quality tools
tools applied
applied in
in aa
structured
structured methodology
methodology
SIX SIGMA
Six Sigma as a Method
•Y •X1…Xn
•Dependent •Independent
•Output •Input-Process
•Effect •Cause
•Symptom •Problem
•Monitor •Control
SIX SIGMA
A Traditional View
Market Share
Sales Growth
• Output Variables
Profitability
Product Quality
COQ Service
Customer Satisfaction
Market Share
Sales Growth
• Output Variables
Profitability
Analyz e
Control
Control
Improvement
Phase Step Focus
Process Characterization
Measure What is the frequency of Defects? Measure
Control
Analyze
• Define performance standards Y
• Validate measurement system Y Improve
Control
• Identify sources of variation
Analyze
(Where, When, Why) X
• Determine the critical process parameters Vital X
Improve
Process Optimization
Improve How can we improve the process? Measure
Control
Analyze
• Discover relationships Vital X
• Establish operating tolerances Vital X Improve
Control
How can we maintain the improvements? Y, Vital X
Analyze
Control
(Sustain, Leverage) • Implement process control mechanisms
• Leverage project learning's Improve
Int
ix
ty al,
il l
gm f S
er
ali tic
Me
Sk
pe
Si w o
Qu atis
nt
rs
o
on
en
St
rin
al
g
Th
S kil
l
Lead use
of
Black technique
and 5%~10%
Two green
4 / year
belts
Belt communic-
ate new
ones
Master Consulting/
Five Black
Black Mentoring/ 80~100%
Belts
10 / year
Training
Belt
SIX SIGMA
Core Statistical Skills Core Six Sigma Quality Skills Core Interpersonal Skills
GBM Statistical Software (JMP, Minitab) GBM AIEG QMS GBM Communication (oral, written)
MIN101 AEC722, DDI121
GBM Numerical and Graphical Techniques GBM QS 9000 GBM Team Facilitation
MIN101, IBM548 AEC279 DDI170
GBM Statistical Process Control GBM Customer Satisfaction GBM Coaching and Mentoring
AEC506, AEC661, AEC662, AEC663 SSG100, TCS100 LDR380, PER119
GBM Process Capability GBM Six Steps to Six Sigma GBM Managing Change
AEC661, AEC662, SCP201 SSG100, SSG102CD MGT564, MGT124, PDE532
GBM Comparative Tests GBM Concurrent Engineering BM Leadership
MIN101, SPC201 MGT561, MGT562, DDI180
GBM Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) GBM TCS BM Team Building
ENG998, AEC603 TCS100 MGT560, MGT562, EC727, MGT155
GBM Measurement System Analysis GBM Systemic Approach to Problem M Instructional/Teaching
AEC663 Solving MOT132
QUA392
GBM Design of Experiments (e.g. Full, GBM Team Oriented Problem Solving M Managing Projects
Fractional, Taguchi Designs) (8D, 7D, 5P)
ENG998, QUA389 AEC471, MGT839
GBM Regression (e.g. linear, nonlinear) BM Quality System Review
QUA590
GBM Statistical Process Characterization BM Team Problem Solving Non-
Strategies and Techniques Manufacturing
ENG227 CES103
BM Statistical Inference BM Design for Manufacturability
MIN101, SPC201
ENG123, ENG123CD
BM Confidence Intervals BM Financial/Economic Quality Issues
MIN101, SPC201
BM Probability Concepts and M Quality Function Deployment
Distributions
SPC201 QUA200A, QUA200B, QUA200C
BM Response Surface Methods M Total Quality Management
QUA393
BM Screening DOE M Benchmarking
QUA391 BMK220
M Advanced Problem Solving M Product Development Assessment
Strategies and Technologies
ENG998
M Acceptance Sampling
SPC201
M Sample Size Estimation
Chris Galvin
Corporate Commitment
SIX SIGMA
(Cont’d)
• Motto:
Measure
Characterize Process
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
SIX SIGMA
Measure Phase
Define
Define Understand
Understand Collect
Collect Process
Process
Problem
Problem Process
Process Data
Data Performance
Performance
Defect Define Process- Data Types Process Capability
Statement Process Mapping - Defectives - Cp/Cpk
Project Historical - Defects - Run Charts
Goals Performance - Continuous Understand Problem
Brainstorm Measurement (Control or
Potential Defect Systems Evaluation Capability)
Causes (MSE)
Understand
Understand the
the Process
Process and
and Potential
Potential Impact
Impact
SIX SIGMA
Problem Definition
What do you want to improve?
What is your ‘Y’?
Reduce
Complaints
(int./ext.)
Reduce Reduce
Defects Cost
Baselining:
Quantifying the goodness (or badness!) of the current
process, before ANY improvements are made, using
sample data. The key to baselining is collecting
representative sample data
Sampling Plan
- Size of Subgroups
- Number of Subgroups
- Take as many “X” as possible into consideration
SIX SIGMA
How do we know our process?
Process Map
Fishbone
e
Tim
Historical Data
SIX SIGMA
RATIONAL
RATIONALSUBGROUPS
SUBGROUPS
Minimize
Minimizevariation
variationwithin
withinsubroups
subroups
BLACK NOISE Maximize
Maximizevariation
variationbetween
betweensubrgoups
subrgoups
(Signal)
WHITE NOISE
(Common Cause
Variation)
RESPONSE
PROCESS
TIME
RATIONAL
RATIONALSUBROUPING
SUBROUPINGAllows
Allowssamples
samplesto
to be
betaken
taken that
that
include
includeonly
onlywhite
whitenoise,
noise,within
withinthe
thesamples.
samples.Black
Blacknoise
noise
occurs
occursbetween
betweenthe
thesamples.
samples.
SIX SIGMA
SIX SIGMA
Visualizing the Causes
Within Group
Time 1
Time 2
Time 3
Time 4
Time 1
Time 2
Time 3
Time 4
•Called shift (truly a
measurement in sigmas of
how far the mean has shifted)
•Indicates our process control
st + shift = total
•The vital few
Between Groups
SIX SIGMA
Assignable Cause
• Outside influences
• Black noise
• Potentially controllable
• How the process is actually performing
over time
Fishbone
SIX SIGMA
Data
Datawithin
withinsubgroups
subgroups(Z.st)
(Z.st)will
willcontain
containonly
onlyCommon
CommonCause
Cause
Variation
Variation
SIX SIGMA
Gauge R&R
Recommendation:
Resolution 10% of tolerance to measure
Gauge R&R 20% of tolerance to measure
R&R
Part-Part
• Repeatability (Equipment variation)
Variation observed with one measurement device when used several times by one operator
while measuring the identical characteristic on the same part.
• Reproducibility (Appraised variation)
Variation Obtained from different operators using the same device when measuring the
identical characteristic on the same part.
•Stability or Drift
Total variation in the measurement obtained with a measurement obtained on the same
master or reference value when measuring the same characteristic, over an extending time
period.
SIX SIGMA
Map
Mapthe
theProcess
Process
Identify
Identifythe
thevariables
variables--‘x’
‘x’
Measure
Measurethe
theProcess
Process
Understand
UnderstandthetheProblem
Problem--
’Y’
’Y’==function
functionof
ofvariables
variables-’x’
-’x’
Y=f(x)
Y=f(x)
To
Tounderstand
understandwhere
where you
youwant
wantto tobe,
be,
you
youneed
needto
toknow
know how
howtoto get
get there.v
there.v
SIX SIGMA
Measure
Characterize Process
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
SIX SIGMA
In many cases, the data sample can be transformed so that it is approximately normal.
For example, square roots, logarithms, and reciprocals often take a positively skewed
distribution and convert it to something close to a bell-shaped curve
SIX SIGMA
What do we Need?
LSL USL LSL USL
Eliminate
Eliminate“Trivial
“TrivialMany”
Many”
Qualitative Evaluation
Qualitative Evaluation
Technical Expertise
Technical Expertise
Graphical Methods
Graphical Methods
Screening Design of Experiments
Screening Design of Experiments Identify
Identify“Vital
“VitalFew”
Few”
Pareto Analysis
Pareto Analysis
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
Regression
Quantify Regression
Quantify Design of Experiments
Design of Experiments
Opportunity
Opportunity
% Reduction in Variation
% Reduction in Variation
Cost/ Benefit
Our Goal:
Cost/ Benefit
Identify the Key Factors (x’s)
SIX SIGMA
Graph>Box Graph>Box
plot plot
DBP
Without X values 10
DBP
75 10
% 4
Day DBP
109 99
10
104
99
50 94
9
94
% 10
DBP 4
25 99 Operator
10
% 9 94
10
4
Shift
99
e
7 30
p ar ans
m e
Co le M nces
5
20
Frequency
Frequency
mp ria
4
Sa Va
3
10
&
2
0 0
0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025
New Machine Machine 6 mths
Regression Analysis
Regression Plot
Y = 2.19469 + 0.918549X Is the factor really important?
R-Sq = 86.0 %
60
50
Do we understand the impact for
40
30
tio
20
10 Regression
5 15 25 35 45 55
bl is
ta
X
poor 2.5
A B
CONTROL
2.0
1.5
shif
t
1.0
0.5
C D
1 2 3 4 5 6
good poor good
TECHNOLOGY
St
Stop Fix
process &
1st piece design
inspection
Z<3
Prepilot Recheck
Data Obtain data ‘Z’ levels
Z>= Design Intent
M.A.I.C
Pilot data
SIX SIGMA Reliability (Level)
Time to install
Total Electricity Usage Req'd for System
Time to Repair
Floor space occupied NO INPUT IN THIS AREA
Sensor Resolution
Response time to power loss
Voltage
Power
TY
Time to supply Backup Power
backup power capacity (time)
Sensor Sensitivity
Floor Loading
Time Between maintenance
Time between equipment replacement
,R
Safety Index Rating
Cost of investment
Cost of maintenace
Cost of installation
Years in Mainstream market
Customer Support Rating
EA
Dependency on weather conditions
ECO-rating
Hours of training req'd
Preferred up dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn tgt tgt dwn dwn tgt dwn up up
Engineering Metrics
Cost of installation
Cost of maintenace
Customer Weights
Cost of investment
Sensor Resolution
Reliability (Level)
Sensor Sensitivity
Time to Repair
Floor Loading
FD
Time to install
Voltage
Power
Customer Requirements
1 Fast Response 9
2 Long time of backup power supply 9
Q
3 Low environmental impact 9
4 Safe to operate 9
5 Meet power requirements 9
6 Low investment cost 3
7 Occupies small floor space 3
8 Easy to upgrade 3
9 Low upgrading costs 3
10 Low time to implement 3
11 Cheap to maintain 3
12 Low recovery or cycle time 3
13 Long life cycle of the system/component 1
14 Cheap to operate 1
15 Cheap to install 1
16 Long Existing proven technology 1
Short Term
gap= – – – –
Long Term
2 2 2 2 2
SIX SIGMA
Measure
Characterize Process
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
SIX SIGMA
What Do I need to do to improve my Game?
6
GUTTER!
SIX SIGMA
Design of Experiments (DOE)
• To estimate the effects of independent Variables on
Responses.
X Y
PROCESS
• Terminology
Factor – An independent variable
Level – A value for the factor.
Response - Outcome
SIX SIGMA
THE COFFEE EXAMPLE
Level
Factor
Low High
Coffee Brand Maxwell House Chock Full o Nuts
Water Spring Tap
Coffee Amount 1 2
SIX SIGMA
Main Effects:
Effects Effect of each individual factor on response
3.7
ME
Taste
2.2
Interaction
Taste
DoE techniques
• Full Factorial.
24 = 16 trials
2 is number of levels
4 is number of factors
• All combinations are tested.
• Fractional factorial can reduce number of
trials from 16 to 8.
SIX SIGMA
DoE techniques….contd.
• Fractional Factorial
• Taguchi techniques
• Half fraction
SIX SIGMA
Mini Case - NISSAN MOTOR COMPANY
Level
Factor
High Low
Adhesion Area (cm2) 15 20
Type of Glue Acryl Urethan
Thickness of Foam Styrene Thick Thin
Thickness of Logo Thick Thin
Amount of pressure Short Long
Pressure application time Small Big
Primer applied Yes No
SIX SIGMA
Design Array
No A B C D Gluing Str
1 + + + - 9.8
2 + + - - 8.9
A - Adhesion Area (cm2)
B - Type of Glue 3 + - + + 9.2
C - Thickness of Foam 4 + - ` - + 8.9
Styrene 5 - + + - 12.3
D - Thickness of Logo
6 - + - - 13
7 - - + + 13.9
8 - - - + 12.6
Effect Tabulation
A B C D
+ 4.60 5.50 5.65 5.58
- 6.48 5.58 5.43 5.50
SIX SIGMA
Factor Effect Plot
Gluing Strength
6.5
5.58 5.65 5.58
5.5 5.43 5
4.6
+ - + - + - + -
- Albert Einstein
SIX SIGMA
Measure
Characterize Process
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
SIX SIGMA
-Confirmation of Improvement
-Confirmation you solved the practical problem
-Benefit validation
-Buy into the Control plan
-Quality plan implementation
-Procedural changes
-System changes
-Statistical process control implementation
-“Mistake-proofing” the process
-Closure documentation
-Audit process
-Scoping next project
SIX SIGMA
SUPERVISION DIRECTORY
ORGANIZATION
SIX SIGMA
MATRIX DIAGRAM
HOWS
Attendant assigned
RELATIONSHIP
Attendant assigned
Obtains equipment
Transports patient
Patient scheduled
Attendant arrives
Attendant arrives
Notifies of return
Provide Therapy
MATRIX
Patient returned
CUSTOMER
WHATS IMPORTANCE
MATRIX
Arrive at scheduled time 5 5 5 5 1 5 0 0 0 0 0
Arrive with proper equipment 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dressed properly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Delivered via correct mode 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Take back to room promptly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5
IMPORTANCE SCORE 39 25 25 27 25 0 20 20 20 20
RANK 1 3 3 2 3 7 6 6 6 6
CHARACTERISTICS:
•Uncover patterns in
Total arrows
Out arrows
In arrows
Strength
Add features 5 0 5 45
Make existing product faster 2 1 3 27
Make existing product easier to use 1 2 3 21
Leave as-is and lower price 0 3 3 21
Devote resources to new products 1 1 2 18
Increase technical support budget 0 2 2 18
SIX SIGMA
Yes Yes
Oport. Area Yes
Normally dist. Interest in
constant from
C, u data X, Rm sudden mean
sample to
changes
sample
No No
No
If mean is big, X and
u R are effective too MA, EWMA or X-R
CUSUM and
Yes Rm
Size of the
subgroup p, np Use X - R chart with
constant
modified rules
More efective to
No detect gradual
Ir neither n nor p are
changes in long term
small: X - R, X - Rm
p are effective
SIX SIGMA
SIX SIGMA
Additional Variable based tools:
1. PRE-Control
•Algorithm for control based on tolerances
•Assumes production process with measurable/adjustable
quality characteristic that varies.
•Not equivalent to SPC. Process known to be capable of
meeting tolerance and assures that it does so.
•SPC used always before PRE-Control is applied.
•Process qualified by taking consecutive samples of individual
measurements, until 5 in a row fall in central zone, before 2
fall in cautionary. Action taken if 2 samples are in Cau. zone.
•Color coded
RED YELLOW GREEN YELLOW RED
ZONE ZONE ZONE ZONE ZONE
Reference Line
Reference Line
PRE-Control
DIMENSION
PRE-Control
NOMINAL
Tolerance
Tolerance
High
Limt
Limt
Low
Degrees
101 111.68 -10.68 Sand
100 102.07 -2.07
92 100.21 -8.21
Temperature
102 98.22 3.78 50 EWMA
111 101.62 9.38
107 110.60 -3.60
112 107.30 4.70 0
112 111.53 0.47
1
4
7
13
19
10
16
22
25
28
122 111.95 10.05
140 121.00 19.00 Observations
125 138.00 -13.00
130 126.31 3.69
136 129.63 6.37
130 135.36 -5.36
112 130.54 -18.54
115 113.85 1.15
100 114.89 -14.89
113 101.49 11.51
111 111.85 -0.85
SIX SIGMA
Project Closure
AlliedSignal ROI
1992-1996
• $1.4 Billion cost reduction.
• 14% growth per quarter.
• 520% price/share growth.
• Reduced new product introduction time by 16%.
• 24% bill/cycle reduction.
SIX SIGMA
• Forrest W. Breyfogle III, “Implementing Six Sigma”, John Wiely & Sons, Inc,1999