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Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction

due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at


the European scale

Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino,


Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk

03/21/2020 EGU2019 - Natural hazards and climate change impacts in coastal areas
Background
• Almost 41% of European Union’s population lives near the coast (Collet & Engelbert, 2013)
• Big part of European coastline comprises erodible sandy stretches
• Sea level rise will cause shoreline retreat (Le Cozannet et al. 2019)
• Need to identify vulnerable coastal areas to focus adaptation measures
• Large scale assessments  rely on large scale data and assumptions

SLR MSL

R Set back
line

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Methods
SLR projections
• RCP4.5 and 8.5
  1
• Probabilistic estimates
𝑅= SLR
(5thth,50thth and 95thth
percentiles)
• From JRC (Vousdoukas
tan ⁡(𝛽 𝑠𝑟 )
et al. 2018)

Sandy beaches
location
• Satellite derived
• Coastal classification FitzGerald et al. 2018

Calculate potential Coastline


coastline recession recession
• Due to SLR (simple Bruun- assessment
Rule estimation) • Hazard maps
Shoreface slope • Segments of 1km length • Potential Coastal
• Elevation profile retreat
information • Land surface lost
• 1/100 uniform
assumption

Geophysical datasets
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Sandy beach location

(EUROSION,2004) (Luijendijk et al.,2018)


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Shoreface slopes
• Previously: 1/100 uniform slope for
sandy beaches (Hinkel et al. 2013)

• This study: Use of GEBCO+MERIT


elevation

 tan ( 𝛽 )= 𝑑 𝑐
𝑠𝑓
𝐿

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Beach land loss per region
PDF PDF

Only median
0.5 0.5 values of SLR
𝑛
  S𝑖 so far!
𝐿𝐿= ∑ ∙ 𝐿𝑖
𝑖=1 tan ( 𝛽 𝑖 )
PDF

0.5

Next step:
include SLR PDFs

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Land loss per NUTS3
1/100 Variable slope
RCP8.5 scenario Shoreface 1/100 Variable slope
slope 1/100 Variable slope
-median SLR 2100 Sandy 1/100 Variable slope
beaches
EUROSION
EUROSION
EUROSION
EUROSION

• Large differences between uniform SDSB


SDSB
1/100 and variable slope impacts SDSB
SDSB

• Differences between sandy beach
location dataset less pronounced
Years: 2010, 2020…2100 x2 (RCP4,5 and 8,5)

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Uncertainty analysis
Global sensitivity analysis (Le Cozannet
et al. 2019)

1st order Sobol indices per variable


- 100,000 model evaluations per
country

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Time evolution per region

5,000 model evaluations per NUTS3 region

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Conclusions
• Spatial differences of sandy beaches location between available datasets

• Shoreface slope is important for capturing spatial variability of SLR impacts under the
Bruun rule assumption

• The decision of the input geophysical dataset is the most important source of
uncertainty when using the Bruun rule model, especially until 2050

• Only at the end of the present century is the SLR scenario uncertainty becoming more
significant at some coastal regions

• SLR uncertainty (ice sheets, glaciers, thermal expansion etc.) not included yet

For more info contact: EUCP is financed by the European Commission through the
Panos.Athanasiou@deltares.nl Horizon 2020 Program for Research & Innovation, Grant
Agreement 776613
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References
• Collet, I. and Engelbert, A.: Coastal regions: people living along the coastline, integration of NUTS 2010 and latest population grid., 2013.
• FitzGerald, D. M., Fenster, M. S., Argow, B. A. and Buynevich, I. V.: Coastal Impacts Due to Sea-Level Rise, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 36(1),
601–647, doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140139, 2008.
• EUROSION: Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and Space for Sustainability: PART I - Major findings and Policy Recommendations
of the EUROSION project, Contract, 2004.
• Luijendijk, A., Hagenaars, G., Ranasinghe, R., Baart, F., Donchyts, G. and Aarninkhof, S.: The State of the World’s Beaches, Sci. Rep., 1–11,
doi:10.1038/s41598-018-24630-6, 2018.
• Hinkel, J., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Wang, Z. B., Hamilton, J. M., Boot, G., Vafeidis, A. T., McFadden, L., Ganopolski, A. and Klein, R. J. T.: A
global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA, Glob. Planet. Change, 111, 150–158,
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002, 2013.
• Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L. P. and Feyen, L.: Global probabilistic projections of
extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard, Nat. Commun., 9(1), 2360, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w, 2018.
• Le Cozannet, G., Idier, D., Castelle, B., Bernon, N., Wöppelmann, G., Ranasinghe, R., Salas-y-Mélia, D., Bulteau, T., Rohmer, J. and Louisor, J.:
Quantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea level rises, Sci. Rep., 9(1), 1–11, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-37017-4,
2019.
• Cannavó, F.: Sensitivity analysis for volcanic source modeling quality assessment and model selection, Comput. Geosci., 44, 52–59,
doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2012.03.008, 2012.

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Extra slides

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Extra slides

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Extra slides

Reconstruct data with the same


reference coastline to allow
comparison

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Extra slides
EUROSION
reclassification

A Rocks and/or cliff s made of hard rocks (little subject to erosion) with eventual presence of a rock platform.
B Conglomerates and/or cliff s (example: chalk) i.e. subject to erosion: presence of rock waste and sediments (sand or pebbles) on the strand.
AC Mainly rocky, little erodible, with pocket beaches (< 200 m long) not localised.
C Small beaches (200 to 1000 m long) separated by rocky capes (< 200 m long).
D Developed beaches (length of the beach > 1 km) with strands made of coarse sediments: gravels or pebbles
E Developed beaches (> 1 Km long) with strands fine to coarse sand.
F Coastlines made of soft non-cohesive sediments (barriers, spits, tombolos).
G Strands made of muddy sediments: "waddens" and intertidal marshes with "slikkes and schorres"
H Estuary (virtual line).
J Harbour areas
K Artificial beaches
L Coastal embankments for construction purposes (e.g. by emplacement of rocks earth etc.)
M Polders (reclaimed coastal areas). Only used in CCEr database
N Very narrow and vegetated strands (pond or lake shore type)
P Soft strands with rocky "platforms" (rocky flat) on intertidal strands
R Soft strands with "beach rock" on intertidal strands
S Soft strands made of mine-waste sediments
X Soft strands of heterogeneous category grain size
Y Artificial shoreline or shoreline with longitudinal protection works (walks, dikes, quays, rocky strands) without sandy strands
Z Soft strands of unknown category grain size

According to MCD
1 Sandy beaches
2 Unerodible (cliff s/rocks/human structures)
3 Maddy coastlines/Estuaries
4 Rocky with pocket beaches

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Extra slides

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RCP8.5 scenario
-median SLR

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