Understanding

KATRINA
8/29/05

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/Katrina1215z-050829-4kg12.jpg
• On promontories, not bays
• 2 category 5s, 7 cat. 4s

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/hur5005.jpg
History Percent per year probability (historical)
per 50-mile (80 km) coastline
(1900-1996)
http://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/pastall.shtml

• South Florida
= most
frequent
• South Texas
and Miss.
Delta =
second
• Katrina
• Rita
Hurricane history
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atlhist_lowres.gif

Named storms

Hurricanes
Cat. 3+
 Miss. delta
• Sea level?
– Lake
Pontchartrain
– Lake Borgne
– SW Pass

SW PASS

http://www.mpcnetwork.com/marinersinfo/charts/gm/2neworleans.gif
Mississippi delta in flood
• Note:
– Sediment to Gulf
1,000,000 ton/day
– Flooded outer
delta Bayou
Lafourche
– Dry diked areas
– Vegetation/land
use on natural
levees
http://jan.ucc.nau.edu/~rcb7/MissDelta.jpg
 Topography of New Orleans
• Much of north N.O. lies well below sea level
• Sea water gains access through canals
• An uneasy truce is maintained by ~350 miles
of levees.

From Brian Hayes (2005), American Scientist, v. 93, p. 496-499 [original map from Louisiana State University]
Natural levees
• Result from multiple
floods
• Extend 2+ km from
river channel
• Are poorly engineered!
Which way to the ocean?
• Miss. R. is twice as long (half as steep) as
shortcuts via the Atchafalaya R. or Lake P.

Mississippi

Atchafalaya

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~gumley/modis_gallery/images/MississippiDelta_20040127_1940_1000m.jpg
Katrina

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/katrina.html
Sea-surface temperatures
• Note
extremely
warm water
• Shallow
coastal
waters
commonly
lack cold
layers
Image courtesy NASA-JPL
Katrina comes
ashore
• [Surviving]
tide gauges
Images courtesy NASA
Images courtesy NASA
Images courtesy NASA
Images courtesy NASA
Damage (courtesy of USGS)

•Biloxi
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/katrina/

•Pass
Christian •Biloxi
 Most intense
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

Category Minimum Minimum

Rank Hurricane Year at Pres. Pres.
landfall (mb) (in)
1 (FL Keys) 1935 5 892 26.35
2 Camille (MS, SE LA, VA) 1969 5 909 26.84
3 Andrew (SE FL, SE LA) 1992 5 922 27.23
4 (Indianola TX ) 1886 4 925 27.31
5 (FL Keys, S TX) 1919 4 927 27.37
6 (Lake Okeechobee FL) 1928 4 929 27.43
7 Donna (FL, Eastern U.S.) 1960 4 930 27.46
8 (New Orleans LA) 1915 4 931 27.49
8 Carla (N & Cent. TX) 1961 4 931 27.49
10 LA (Last Island) 1856 4 934 27.58
Deadliest (through 1996)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

RANKING HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DEATHS

1. TX (Galveston) 1900 4 8000+
2. FL (Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 1836
3. FL (Keys)/S. TX 1919 4 600
4. NEW ENGLAND 1938 3 600
5. FL (Keys) 1935 5 408
6. AUDREY (SW LA/N TX) 1957 4 390
7. NE U.S. 1944 3 390
8. LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 350
9. LA (New Orleans) 1915 4 275
10. TX (Galveston) 1915 4 275
11. CAMILLE (MS/LA) 1969 5 256
What do we do about it?

• Abandon New Orleans?

• Rebuild New Orleans only along the
natural levees?
• Rebuild, but zone/plan undersea areas for
only unoccupied ground floors?
• Rebuild and raise the levees?
• Rebuild
In summary…