TIME PREDICTION OF

SLOPE FAILURES
BY THE
INVERSE VELOCITY
METHOD
 Chuquicamata, Chile

January, 1969
 Chuquicamata, Chile
 January 13, 1969, B.A. Kennedy
predicted earliest failure date of
February 18, 1969 by extrapolating
displacement vs. time curves
 February 11 velocities 190-460
mm/day
 February 18, 6:58 p.m., slope failed
Chuquicamata, Chile
Chuquicamata, Chile
 Fukuzono (1985, 1989)

 Fukuzono (1985, 1989) constructed

rainfall simulator and sample slope to
simulate slope failures
 Discovered acceleration of surface
displacements proportional to velocity
before failure
2 m
d x  dx 
2
 A  A, m constants
dt  dt 
 Fukuzono (1985, 1989)
 Fukuzono (1985, 1989) proposed
time of failure can be predicted
using reciprocal of velocity when
m>1
 Plot of reciprocal of velocity is
linear when m = 2
 Failure occurs when line
representing reciprocal of velocity
crosses X-axis
 Fukuzono (1985, 1989)
 Fukuzono (1985, 1989) and
Varnes (1983) estimate that
m > 1 for ~ 80% of past
measured landslide
displacements
m = 2 for ~ 40% to 50% of past
measured landslide
displacements
Example: Barrick Goldstrike, NV
 Barrick provided surface displacement
data for eleven prisms in Turkey -
Garspeak Wedge beginning 6/15/01
and measured every 1 to 3 days using
robotic survey system
 Surface displacement data provided
as 6-day moving average velocities
Before Turkey-Garspeak Wedge Failure
BEFORE - Wedge Failure Impacting Deep Post Access
August 22 Looking South

Gar
Failing

sp
Wedge Abandoned Roads

eak
Fau

lt

ult
Fau
t l
New Access Tie-in

a
ry F
k ey

Jer
Tur
Existing Roads

Deep Post

Iceberg
After Turkey-Garspeak Wedge Failure
AFTER - Highwall Failure
August 29

Failure Limit

Deep Post

Iceberg
 clearly

to predict
accelerating
displacement
Rate of prism

Time of failure
can be difficult

Failure occurred
August 29, 2001
MOVEMENT IN INCHES PER DAY 10
12
14

0
2
4
6
8
04/15/2001

04/22/2001

04/29/2001

05/06/2001

05/13/2001

05/20/2001

05/27/2001

06/03/2001

06/10/2001

06/17/2001

06/24/2001
DATE

07/01/2001

07/08/2001

07/15/2001
Data plotted for May 15 and June 15 are Monthly Averages
PRISM DATA - FASTEST PRISM (265)

07/22/2001

07/29/2001

08/05/2001

08/12/2001

08/19/2001

08/26/2001
Failure
09/02/2001
Velocity vs. Time Plot
 Inverse Velocity vs. Time Plot
for Fastest Prism
Prediction of Reciprocal of Mean Velocity vs. Time for Fastest Prism (S265)

time of failure is 2.0

Data Beginning 2.5 Months Before Failure

straightforward
1.8

Failure occurred 1.6

in early hours of
1.4
day 75 (August
29, 2001) 1.2
1/V (days/in)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

Failure
0.2

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Time (Days)
 Inverse Velocity vs. Time Plot
for Slowest Prism
Slowest prism Reciprocol of Mean Velocity vs. Time for Slowest Prism (S221)
Data beginning 2.5 months before failure
predicted failure 6.0

2 days early
5.0

4.0
1/V (days/in)

3.0

2.0

1.0

Failure
0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Time (Days)
 Inverse Velocity vs. Time Plot
for Fastest Prism
Plot shows data Reciprocal of Mean Velocity vs. Time for Fastest Prism (S265)
collected up to Neglecting Data 1 Month Before Failure
2.0
1 month before
failure 1.8

1.6

Failure still 1.4

predicted on
day 75 (8/29/01) 1.2
1/V (days/in)

1.0

0.8

0.6

Failure
0.4

0.2

0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Time (Days)
 Inverse Velocity vs. Time Plot
for Slowest Prism
Plot shows data Reciprocol of Mean Velocity vs. Time for Slowest Prism (S221)
Neglecting Data 1 Month Before Failure
collected up to 6

1 month before
failure 5

Slowest prism 4
predicted failure
1/V (days/in)

5 days early
3

Failure
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Time (Days)
 early
failure

Difficult to

failure this
month before

predict time of
Plot shows data
collected up to 1

MOVEMENT IN INCHES PER DAY

10
11
12
13
14

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
04/15/2001

04/22/2001

04/29/2001

05/06/2001

05/13/2001

05/20/2001

05/27/2001

06/03/2001

06/10/2001

06/17/2001

06/24/2001
DATE
07/01/2001

07/08/2001

07/15/2001

07/22/2001
Data plotted for May 15 and June 15 are Monthly Averages
PRISM DATA - FASTEST PRISM (265)

07/29/2001

08/05/2001

08/12/2001

08/19/2001

08/26/2001 Failure
09/02/2001
Velocity vs. Time Plot