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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

PROBABILITY

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

LEARNING OUTCOMES

After this chapter you should be able to:

• Calculate the probability of a single event as a fraction or
decimal
• Understand relative frequency
• Calculate the probability of simple combined events,
using possibility diagrams and tree diagrams

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

1. Finding the probability of an event

• Something that is impossible has a probability of 0
• An outcome that is certain has a probability of 1
• All other probabilities lie between 0 and 1

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…continue BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

• Suppose
  you want to calculate the probability of the event that
the spinner will stop on a green section.
• The spinner has 3 green section and the total number of
section is 5.
• The probability of the spinner stopping on a green section is
• In general, when all the possible outcomes are equally likely,
– Probability of an event =
• The complement of an event
– Probability of an outcome not happening =

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Test yourself!! BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

1. What is the probability of the spinner stopping on an

even number?
2. A bag contains 10 coloured balls. 7 of them are blue.
Dave takes one ball out of the bag at random. What is:
a. P(blue)
b. P(not blue)

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

The probability of either one event or

another
• So far, we have looked at just one event a time. However,
it is often useful to bracket two or more of the events
together and calculate their combined probability

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

example
The table below shows the probability of the next book
requested falling into each of the three categories listed,
assuming that each book is equally likely to be requested.
Category of book Typical numbers Probability
On the shelves (S) 20 000 0.25
Out of loan (L) 44 000 0.55
Unauthorised loan (U) 16 000 0.20
Total (S + L + U) 80 000 1.00

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

What is the probability that a randomly requested book is

either out on loan or unauthorised loan (i.e. that it is not
available)?

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Look at carefully in this next example.

Below are further details of the categories of books in the
library.
Category of book Number of books
On the shelves 20 000
Out on loan 44 000
Adult fiction 22 000
Adult non-fiction 40 000
Junior 18 000
Unauthorised loan 16 000
Total stock 80 000

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• Asaph is trying to find the probability thatBIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

the next book
requested will be either out on loan or a book of adult
non-fiction.
• He writes
Assuming all the books in the library are equally likely to be
requested,
P (on loan) + P (adult non-fiction) = 44000 + 40000
80000 80000
= 0.55 + 0.5
= 1.05
Explain why Asaph’s answer must be wrong. What is his
mistake?
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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

• If you add all six of the book categories together, you find
that they add up to 160 000, which represents twice the
total number of books owned by the library.
• A more useful representation of the data in the previous
example is given in the two-way table below:

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Adult fiction Adult non-fiction Junior Total

On the shelves 4 000 12 000 4 000 20 000
Out on loan 14 000 20 000 10 000 44 000
Unauthorised loan 4 000 8 000 4 000 16 000
Totals 22 000 40 000 18 000 80 000

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Mutually exclusive events

• The problem of double counting does not occur when adding two rows
in the table. Two rows cannot overlap, or intersect, which means that
those categories are mutually exclusive (i.e. the one exclude the
other). The same is true for two columns within the table.
• When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive the probability that
either A or B occurs is equal to the sum of the separate probabilities of A
and B occurring.
• Where two events A and B are not mutually exclusive the probability
that either A or B occurs is equal to the sum of the separate probabilities
of A and B occurring minus the probability of A and B occurring together.
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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Mutually Vs Not Mutually

Mutually exclusive Not mutually exclusive events

events
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B)
P(A ꓴ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ꓵ B)

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Example 1
A fair die is thrown. What is the probability that it shows
each of these?
Event A : an even number
Event B : a number greater than 4
Either A or B (or both) : a number which is either even or
greater than 4

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Example 2

Three separate electrical components, switch, bulb and

contact point, are used together in the construction of a
pocket torch. Of 534 defective torches examined to identify
the cause of failure, 468 are found to have defective bulb.
For a given failure of the torch, what is the probability that
either the switch or the contact point is responsible for the
failure? Assume each faulty torch has only one fault.
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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Example 3
If a fair die is thrown, what is the probability that it shows
a. 4
b. 4 or more
c. Less than 4
d. An even number?

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Example 4

Two players, A and B play tennis. On the basis of their

previous results, the probability of A winning, P(A), is
calculated to be 0.65. What is P(B), the probability of B
winning?

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Example 5

Two hockey teams, A and B play a game. On the basis of

their previous results, the probability of team A winning,
P(A), is calculated to be 0.65. Why is it not possible to
calculate directly P(B), the probability of team B winning,
without further information?

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BIE1143 | Probability & Statistics

Example 6

In a tennis tournament, player A, the favourite is estimated

to have a 0.3 chance of winning the competition. Player B is
estimated to have a 0.15 chance. Find the probability that
either A or B will win the competition.

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