THE

EVALUATION OF
MOTORCYCLE
RESTRICTION
ON ROAD
ACCIDENT IN
INDONESIA

HAURA a.
PRAMIT P.
RAHMALDA T.
 Introduction 2

The Jakarta’s motorcyclists are notorious for their

reckless driving. Driving through red traffic lights
and zigzagging haphazardly on the city’s streets
Polic are common.
y Due to 60% of traffic accidents occurred in
02
Back Greater Jakarta involved motorcycles, the Jakarta
- administration implemented a motorcycle
grou ban on several main roads starts in 2014.
Hence, the policy aim to reduce the rate of road
03
nd accidents in the capital.
Number of Motorcycle in Jakarta (in thousand)
13,121

10,333
9,210
8,209
7,257
6,544

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

 Research Aim,
Question and 3

To examine the Does Data

the motorcycle We collected our data
effectiveness of restriction policy have from National Statistic
motorcycle an impact on road Agency of Indonesia at
restriction policy to accidents in provincial level in the
reduce the road Indonesia? form of panel data
accidents in
AI
Indonesia QUE
DATA
STIO
M N
 Empirical Strategy and Model
Empirical Strategy
DiD: The evolution of the outcome variable in the control group provides a good
counterfactual for how the treatment group evolves in the absence of the treatment.
Fixed Effect: The need to account for unobserved heterogeneity in the treatment effects
within states and within the time period (Abadie et al., 2017).

•  
Model

Where :
• number of people involved in Road Accidents (killed, slightly injured, seriously injured, and the
number of accidents)
• is a dummy variable equal to 1 when
• is a dummy variable equal to 1 when s={DKI Jakarta}
• is interaction term that takes value 1 when & s={DKI Jakarta}
• The X variables are a series of time-varying covariates including the number of motorcycle, damage
road, and precipitation
 Placebo Tests

8000

6000

4000

2000
4000

3000

2000

1000

0
0
SP but
P&I Serious Injured NI Slight Injured
Policy Policy

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

1500

1000
Control Group Treatment Group

500
Control Group Treatment Group
0

0
NP &
P but SI Policy Policy
Road Accident NI Killed

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year Year

Control Group Treatment Group Control Group Treatment Group

Regression Results (Fixed Effects)
SERIOUSLY INJURED SLIGHTLY INJURED
KILLED ROAD
ACCIDENTS
Road Ahead?