Afghanistan

By Islam Wazir
Population (approximately million)

Ethnicities.
Pashtun 37 %
Tajiks 29 %
Hazara 25%
Uzbeks9%
Aimaq 5%
Turkmen 3%
Baloch 2%
Area: 652,864km2
Geostrategic Position
Conspiracy theories about the Geostrategic
position
War in Afghanistan is economic oriented.
Afghanistan  has over 1400 minerals fields
containing barite, chromite, coal, copper, Gold, Iron
Ore, lead, natural gas, petroleum, precious and semi-
precious stones, salt, sulfur, talc, zinc among many
other minerals.
It is believed that among other things the country
holds $3 trillion in untapped mineral deposits (United
States Geological Survey).
In December 2013, President Karzai claimed the
mineral deposits are actually worth $30 trillion.
Conspiracy Theories
Chinese contingency factor.
Afghanistan a logistic barrier.
Caspian Sea and Afghanistan a route hurdle.
It is estimated that the Caspian contains 48 billion
barrels of oil and 8.7 trillion cubic meters of gas in
proven or probable reserves shared by the Republic of
Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia and Turkmenistan.
Soviet Union Invasion
 The Soviet–Afghan War lasted over nine years, from
December 1979 to February 1989.
Mujahedeen fought against the Soviet Army and
the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.
Between 562,000 and 100,000 civilians were killed and
millions of Afghans fled the country as refugees,
mostly to Pakistan and Iran.
The war is considered part of the Cold War.
Soviet War in Afghanistan
Prior to the arrival of Soviet troops, the People's
Democratic Party of Afghanistan took power after a 1978
coup, installing Nur Mohammad Taraki as president.
The party initiated a series of radical modernization
reforms throughout the country that were deeply
unpopular, particularly among the more traditional rural
population and the established traditional power
structures.
The government vigorously suppressed any opposition
and arrested thousands, executing as many as 27,000
political prisoners. 
Soviet Union Invasion
Anti-government armed groups were formed, and by April
1979 large parts of the country were in open rebellion.
The government itself was highly unstable with in-party
rivalry, and in September 1979 the president was deposed
by followers of Hafizullah Amin, who then became
president.
PDPA split into two rival factions,
The Khalq (Masses) faction headed
by NurMuhammadTaraki and Hafizullah Amin.
The Parcham (Flag) faction led by Babrak Karmal and
Muhammad Najibullah.
Soviet Union Invasion
Deteriorating relations and worsening rebellions led the Soviet
government, under leader Leonid Brezhnev, to deploy the 40th
Army on December 24, 1979.
Arriving in the capital Kabul, they staged a coup, killing
president Amin and installing Soviet loyalist Babrak
Karmal from a rival faction.
In January 1980, foreign ministers from 34 nations of
the Islamic Conference adopted a resolution demanding "the
immediate, urgent and unconditional withdrawal of Soviet
troops" from Afghanistan, while the UN General Assembly
passed a resolution protesting the Soviet intervention by a vote
of 104–18.
Soviet Union Invasion
Afghan insurgents began to receive massive amounts
of aid and military training from Arab monarchs,
China, Pakistan and U.S.
As documented by the National Security Archive,
"the Central Intelligence Agency(CIA) played a
significant role in asserting U.S. influence in
Afghanistan by funding military operations designed
to frustrate the Soviet invasion.
Soviet Union Invasion
CIA covert action worked through Pakistani intelligence
services to reach Afghani rebel groups.
Soviet troops occupied the cities and main arteries of
communication, while the mujahideen waged guerrilla
war in small groups operating in the almost 80 percent of
the country that was outside government and Soviet
control.
The Soviets used their air power to deal harshly with both
rebels and civilians, levelling villages to deny safe haven
to the mujahideen, destroying vital irrigation ditches, and
laying millions of land mines.
Soviet Union Invasion
By the mid-1980s, the Soviet contingent was increased.
 Fighting increased throughout the country, but the
military and diplomatic cost of the war to the USSR
was high.
By mid-1987 the Soviet Union, now under reformist
leader Mikhail Gorbachev, announced it would start
withdrawing its forces.
The final troop withdrawal started on May 15, 1988,
and ended on February 15, 1989.
Soviet Union Withdrawal
The final troop withdrawal started on May 15, 1988,
and ended on February 15, 1989.
Due to its length, it has sometimes been referred to as
the "Soviet Union's Vietnam War" or the "Bear Trap"
by the Western media.
It is thought to be a contributing factor to the fall of
the Soviet Union.
Regional Dimensions
The Soviet withdrawal in February 1989.
Effective disengagement of the US and collapse of
Najibullah's regime in April 1992.
Disruptive power-struggle between antagonist
Mujahideen parties with direct intervention of the
neighbouring countries started.
Regional Dimensions
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
Pakistan recognized Taliban government.
Saudi Arabia continued support to the ideological
groups.
While Iran supported their traditional ally the
Northern Alliance.
War on Terror
Twin Tower incident and Invasion of Afghanistan.
The Taliban government in Kabul collapsed by
December 2001.
Many Taliban forces moved to the south and along the
contested border with Pakistan.
Hamid Karzai was installed as the President of the
interim government in 2001.
Taliban
United Nations Role
United Nation has failed in the process of this conflict
settlement.
United Nation is considered as a part to the conflict by
many Afghans.
Pakistan’s Role
Pakistan stand accused of playing both side.
Good and Bad Taliban Policy.
Taliban cannot win but the Afghan State cannot defeat
them either.
Many Believe that Taliban have only come back
because of the support of Pakistan.
So ?
The only Good Taliban is ……
The Dead Taliban.
Trump’s Policy
No deadline, no deadline of withdrawal.
Trump increased the number of troops, nearly 4,000
additional troops to Afghanistan.
A core pillar of Trump’s strategy is a shift from a time-
based approach to one based on conditions.
Another fundamental pillar of Trump’s strategy is the
integration of all instruments of American power
diplomatic, economic, and military toward a successful
outcome. (he claimed).
After an effective military effort, possible political
settlement that includes elements of the Taliban in
Afghanistan.
Trump’s Policy
America will continue its support for the Afghan
government and the Afghan military as they confront
the Taliban in the field.
It is up to the people of Afghanistan to take ownership
of their future, to govern their society, and to achieve
an ever-lasting peace.
Trump’s Policy
The next pillar of Trump’s strategy is to change the
approach in how to deal with Pakistan. (We can no
longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe-havens for
terrorist organizations, the Taliban and other groups
that pose a threat to the region and beyond).
Trump’s Policy
Today 20 U.S. designated foreign terrorist
organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The highest concentration in any region, anywhere in
the world. For its part, Pakistan often gives safe haven
to agents of chaos, violence, and terror. The threat is
worse because Pakistan and India are two nuclear-
armed states whose tense relations threaten to spiral
into conflict. And that could happen. (Trump's
speech).
Trump’s Policy
In Afghanistan and Pakistan, America's interests are
clear. We must stop the resurgence of safe havens that
enable terrorists to threaten America. And we must
prevent nuclear weapons and materials from coming
into the hands of terrorists, and being used against us,
or anywhere in the world for that matter. But to
prosecute this war, we will learn from history. (From
his speech on Afghan policy).
Critique
Trump’s Policy
The new American strategy is with an Indian prism.
New U.S. strategy for the war in Afghanistan without
offering details about changes to troop levels.
 The announcement marks a turnabout for Trump’
Pakistan’s apprehension and chances of more chaos.
Pakistan’s importance and its criminal negligance by
the U.S and its impact on the region.
Reservations of China and Russia and their concerns
with respect to Islamic radicalism .
Trump’s Policy
Experts on Afghanistan have been conflicted about
what to do in the country,
Where the conflict between the Afghan government
and the Taliban is at a stalemate.
Where corruption continues to hamstring governance.
Where regional and ethnic loyalties offers loyalties to
the central government.
Trump VS Obama
Difference between trump policy and Obama Policy.
Conflict Profile
Two decades of war have destroyed the economy,
social capital, productive foundation of the society .
Afghanistan has the highest number of landmines (10
millions) the largest refugee and disabled population,
the highest rates of infant mortality.
Conflict Profile
Life expectancy is 44 years, compared to an average of
53 years for other low-income countries worldwide.
Estimated 10,000 people were killed in 2010 alone, the
ratio is increased by 170 percent after 2010.
July 2010 Wikileaks: 90,000 secret military files
revealing how the coalition forces had killed hundreds
of civilians in unreported incidents.
The opium trade has increased massively since 2001.

90% of heroin is produced by Afghanistan these days.

Lack of stable governance mean that new conflicts will
continue to rise up.
The government is failing to extend its control or enter
into negotiations with the Taliban.
Conflict Settlement
Political Or Military ?.
David Milli Band and Gen. Mc Crystal farewell
statements from Afghanistan.
Has the military option failed in Afghanistan or has
been less effective? .
80/20 American formula for Afghanistan.
Reality is 3/97
Wars are fought from slavery
to freedom not from freedom
to slavery
Thank You
 Questions