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Budgeting
Investment Decision
The investment decisions of a firm are generally
known as the capital budgeting, or capital
expenditure decisions.
The firm’s investment decisions would generally
include expansion, acquisition, modernisation and
replacement of the long-term assets. Sale of a division
or business (divestment) is also as an investment
decision.
Decisions like the change in the methods of sales
distribution, or an advertisement campaign or a
research and development programme have long-
term implications for the firm’s expenditures and
benefits, and therefore, they should also be evaluated as
investment decisions.
Investment Decision
Investment decision is concerned with optimum utilization
of fund to maximize the wealth of the organization and in
turn the wealth of its shareholders.
Investment decision is very crucial for an organization to
fulfill its objectives; in fact, it generates revenue and
ensures long term existence of the organization.
In simple terms, Capital Budgeting involves: -
(a) Initial Cash Outflow: The initial cash out flow for a project depends upon
the type of capital investment decision as follows:-
If decision is related to investment in a fresh proposal or an expansion decision
If decision is related to replacement decision
(b) Interim Cash Flows: After making the initial cash outflow that is necessary
to begin implementing a project, the firm hopes to get benefit from the future
cash inflows generated by the project. As mentioned earlier calculation of cash
flows depends on the fact whether analysis is related to fresh project or
modernization of existing facilities or replacement of existing machined decision.
(c) Terminal-Year Incremental Net Cash Flow: For the purpose of Terminal
Year, first incremental net cash flow is being calculated for the period and further
to it adjustments to be made in order to arrive at Terminal-Year Incremental Net
Cash flow.
BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR MEASURING
PROJECT CASH FLOWS
Exclusion of Financing Costs Principle
The exclusion of financing costs principle means that:
(i) The interest on long-term debt (or interest) is
ignored while computing profits and taxes and;
(ii) The expected dividends are deemed irrelevant in
cash flow analysis.
Post-tax Principle
C1 C2 C3 Cn
NPV n
C0
(1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k )
2 3
n
Ct
NPV C0
t 1 (1 k )
t
Net Present Value Technique (NPV)
UnevenCash Flows:
Calculating IRR by Trial and Error
The approach is to select any discount rate to compute the
present value of cash inflows. If the calculated present
value of the expected cash inflow is lower than the present
value of cash outflows, a lower rate should be tried. On the
other hand, a higher value should be tried if the present
value of inflows is higher than the present value of
outflows. This process will be repeated unless the net
present value becomes zero.
NPV Profile and IRR
A B C D E F G H
1 NPV Profile
Discount
2 Cash Flow rate NPV
3 -20000 0% 12,580
IR
4 5430 5% 7,561
R
5 5430 10% 3,649
6 5430 15% 550
7 5430 16% 0
8 5430 20% (1,942)
9 5430 25% (3,974)
Figure 8.1 NPV Profile
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Accept the project when r > k.
Reject the project when r < k.
May accept the project when r = k.
In case of independent projects, IRR and NPV rules
will give the same results if the firm has no shortage
of funds.
Evaluation of IRR
IRR method has following merits:
Time value
Profitability measure
Acceptance rule
Shareholder value
IRR method may suffer from:
Multiplerates
Mutually exclusive projects
Value additivity
Conventional and Non-conventional Cash Flows
A conventional investment has cash flows the pattern of
an initial cash outlay followed by cash inflows.
Conventional projects have only one change in the sign
of cash flows; for example, the initial outflow followed
by inflows, i.e., – + + +.
A non-conventional investment, on the other hand, has
cash outflows mingled with cash inflows throughout
the life of the project. Non-conventional investments
have more than one change in the signs of cash flows;
for example, – + + + – ++ – +.
Problem of Multiple IRR
A project may have both NPV
lending and borrowing 200.00
C1 4000 -700.00
C2 -3750 -800.00
Df (%) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 225% 250% 275% 300%
NPV -750.00 -200.00 0.00 61.22 62.50 37.04 0.00 -41.32 -83.33 -124.26 -163.27 -200.00 -234.38
NPV vs. IRR
The net present value (NPV) rule should be modified while choosing among
projects under capital constraint. The objective should be to maximize NPV
per rupee of capital rather than to maximize NPV. Projects should be ranked
by their profitability index, and top-ranked projects should be undertaken
until funds are exhausted.
Payback Period
Payback is the number of years required to recover
the original cash outlay invested in a project.
If the project generates constant annual cash inflows,
the payback period can be computed by dividing cash
outlay by the annual cash inflow. That is:
Initial Investment C0
Payback = =
Annual Cash Inflow C
Unequal cash flows In case of unequal cash inflows,
the payback period can be found out by adding up the
cash inflows until the total is equal to the initial cash
outlay.
Payback Period
The project would be accepted if its payback period is
less than the maximum or standard payback period
set by management.
As a ranking method, it gives highest ranking to the
project, which has the shortest payback period and
lowest ranking to the project with highest payback
period.
Evaluation of Payback
Certain virtues:
Simplicity
Cost effective
Short-term effects
Risk shield
Liquidity
Serious limitations:
Cash flows after payback ignored
Cash flow patterns
Inconsistent with shareholder value
Payback Reciprocal and the Rate of
Return
The reciprocal of payback will be a close
approximation of the internal rate of return if the
following two conditions are satisfied:
Year 1 2 3
PV (9%) 0.9174 0.8417 0.7722
Modified Internal rate of Return (MIRR)
There are several limitations attached with the concept of the conventional
Internal Rate of Return. The MIRR addresses some of these deficiencies
e.g., it eliminates multiple IRR rates; it addresses the reinvestment rate issue
and produces results which are consistent with the Net Present Value method.
This method is also called Terminal Value method.
Under this method, all cash flows, apart from the initial investment, are
brought to the terminal value using an appropriate discount rate (usually the
Cost of Capital). This results in a single stream of cash inflow in the terminal
year. The MIRR is obtained by assuming a single outflow in the 0 th year and
the terminal cash inflow as mentioned above.
The discount rate which equates the present value of the terminal cash inflow
to the 0th year outflow is called the MIRR.
Present value of Outflow , PV
The decision criterion of MIRR is same as IRR i.e. you accept an investment
if MIRR is larger than required rate of return and reject if it is lower than the
required rate of return.
Illustration
A projecthas an initial outflow of Rs.20000 and the
expected cash inflows over next 3 years are Rs.7000,
Rs. 10000 and Rs.8000. The required rate of return
is 10%. What is MIRR of the Project?
Summery
For Mutually Exclusive
Techniques For Independent Project Projects
Pay Back (i) When Payback period ≤ Project with least Payback
Maximum Acceptable period should be selected
Payback period: Accepted
Non- (ii) When Payback period ≥
Discounte Maximum Acceptable
d Payback period: Rejected
Accounting (i) When ARR ≥ Minimum Project with the maximum ARR
Rate of Return Acceptable Rate of Return: should be selected.
(ARR)
Accepted
(ii) When ARR ≤ Minimum
Acceptable Rate of Return:
Rejected
Discounted Net Present
Value (NPV)
(i) When NPV > 0: Accepted Project with the highest positive
NPV should be selected
(ii) When NPV < 0: Rejected
Profitability (i) When PI > 1: Accepted When Net Present Value is same
Index(PI) project with highest PI should
(ii) When PI < 1: Rejected be selected
Internal Rate of (i) When IRR > K: Accepted Project with the maximum IRR
Return (IRR) should be selected
(ii) When IRR < K: Rejected
Popularity and usage of capital budgeting methods
In terms of consistency with owners’ wealth
maximization, NPV and IRR are preferred over other
methods.
Larger companies tend to prefer NPV and IRR over
the payback period method.
The payback period is still used, despite its failings.
The NPV is the estimated added value from investing
in the project; therefore, this added value should be
reflected in the company’s stock price.
Illustration
A firm is evaluating a proposal costing Rs.1,60,000 and
expected to generate cash inflows of Rs.40,000,
Rs.60,000, Rs.50,000 and Rs.80,000 at the end of each
year for next four years. There is no salvage value
thereafter.
Will you accept the project on the basis of NPV, if the
discount rate is 13%.
Whether you change your decision, if the discount rate
is 16%.
What is IRR of the Project?
Illustration
Machine A cost Rs. 1,00,000 payable immediately. Machine
B costs Rs. 1, 20,000 half payable immediately and half
payable in 1 year’s time. The cash receipts are as follows:
Year (at end) Machine A Machine B
1 20000 -
2 60000 60000
3 40000 60000
4 30000 80000
5 20000 -
At 7% opportunity cost, which machine should be selected on
the basis of NPV.
Year 1 2 3 4 5
PV (7%) 0.9346 0.8734 0.8163 0.7629 0.7130
Illustration
Equipment A has a cost of Rs. 50000 and net cash flows of
Rs. 18500 per year for four years. A substitute equipment B
would cost Rs. 75000 and generate net cash flow of
Rs.25000, 30000, 33000, 20000 each year from year 1 to 4.
The required rate of return for both the equipment is 11%.
Calculate the NPV & IRR for the equipment. Which
equipment should be accepted and why?
(Assume the IRR for both the equipment is between 15%-
18%)
Year 1 2 3 4
PV (11%) 0.9009 0.8116 0.7312 0.6587
PV (15%) 0.8696 0.7561 0.6575 0.5718
PV (18%) 0.8475 0.7182 0.6086 0.5158
Illustration
Sumitra Electronics is evaluating a capital project requiring an
outlay of Rs.1250 million. It is expected to generate a net cash
inflow of Rs.320 million per year for 6 years. The opportunity
cost of capital is 14 percent.
Will you accept or reject the project.
year 1 2 3 4 5 6
14% 0.8772 0.7695 0.6750 0.5921 0.5194 0.4556
Illustration
A firm has several projects on hand. These projects have varying
size, annual cash flows, lives as given below:
Project Project Project Project Project
A B C D E
Initial outlay 100 120 135 165 200
Expected annual cash 30 45 55 70 90
inflow
Management's discount
rate 12% 13% 15% 18% 20%
Life of the Project 5 5 6 6 4
Ravi Sharma believes that all the three projects have risk characteristics similar to the average risk of the
firm and hence the firm's cost of capital, viz. 12 percent, will apply to them.
You are asked to evaluate the projects.
•What is payback period and discounted payback period? Find the payback periods and the discounted
payback periods of Projects A and B.
•What is the net present value (NPV)? What are the properties of NPV? Calculate the NPVs of projects A, B
and C.
•What is internal rate of return (IRR)? What are the problems with IRR? Calculate the IRR of Projects A, B
and C.
Illustration
A company is considering a proposal of installing a drying
equipment. The equipment would involve a cash outlay of
Rs.6,00,000 and working capital of Rs.80,000. the expected
life of the project is 6 years without salvage value. Assume
that company is allowed to charge depreciation on straight
line basis for tax purpose and the tax rate is 35%. The
estimated before tax cash flows are given below:
Rs. '000
Before-tax Cash Flow
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
210 180 160 150 120 100
If the company’s opportunity cost of capital is 12%, calculate
the after tax cash flows and NPV of the project.
Illustration
The expected cash flows of three projects are given below. The cost of
capital is 10 per cent.
(a) Calculate the payback period, net present value, internal rate of return
and accounting rate of return of each project.
(b) Show the rankings of the projects by each of the four methods.
Period Project A (Rs.) Project B (Rs.) Project C (Rs.)
0 (5,000) (5,000) (5,000)
1 900 700 2,000
2 900 800 2,000
3 900 900 2,000
4 900 1,000 1,000
5 900 1,100
6 900 1,200
7 900 1,300
8 900 1,400
9 900 1,500
10 900 1,600
Illustration
Perfect Inc., A U.S. based Pharmaceutical Company has received an offer
from Aidsecure Ltd., a company engaged in manufacturing of drugs to
cure dengue, to setup a manufacturing unit in Baddi (H.P.), India a joint
venture.
As per the joint venture Agreement, Perfect Inc. will receive 55% share of
revenue plus a royalty @ 60 paisa per bottle (.6 Rupee). The initial
investment will be Rs.200 crores for machinery and factory and initial
working capital of Rs.50 crores shall be required. The scrap value of
machinery and factory is estimated at the end of 5 year to be Rs.5 crores.
The machinery is depreciable @ 20% on the value of net of salvage value
using Straight Line Method.
As per GOI directions, it is estimated that the price per bottle will be
Rs.7.50 and the production will be 24 crores bottle per year. The price in
addition to inflation of respective years shall be increased by Rs. 1 each
year. The production cost shall be 40% of the revenues.
The applicable tax rate in India is 35%.
Class Test
A company has to make a choice between two projects namely A and
B. The initial capital outlay of two Projects are Rs. 1,35,000 and Rs.
2,40,000 respectively for A and B. There will be no scrap value at
the end of the life of both the projects. The opportunity Cost of
Capital of the company is 16%. The annual incomes are as under:
Project A Rs. 4,00,000 per year and Project B Rs. 5,80,000 per
year. The cost of capital is 10%. Show which of the two projects is
preferable from the view point of