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Fernando Henrique Cardosoƞs

Sociological Theory and Practice

By Ted Goertzel
Rutgers University.Camden NJ 08102
With statistical slides prepared by
Eduardo Graeff of the Office of the President, Brasilia
Additional statistical slides and other materials are available at:
http://goertzel.org/ted
 Fernando Henrique Cardoso
ƥ First sociologist to be
President of his country
ƥ Building a ƠViable Utopiaơ
for Brazil
ƥ Finishing his second four
year term as President
ƥ Leaving Brazil in much
better shape than he
found it in
 Cardosoƞs Social Science
ƥ Marxist Background
ƥ Known for
ƠDependency Theoryơ
ƥ Focus on solving
Brazilƞs problems, not
on testing a theory
ƥ Key writings now
conveniently available
in English
 Cardosoƞs Criticism of Social Science
as Often Practiced Today
ƥ Too little field work or interaction with
subjects of study
ƥ Focus on testing theory rather than on
solving problems
ƥ Use of ideologically biased concepts such
as Ơneoliberalismơ
ƥ Criticism without offering viable alternatives
 Cardoso on the Intellectuals
ƥ ƠI am astonished to see the indolence of the
Brazilian intellectual. He stays in his office and
writes. He doesnƞt go out, he doesnƞt see
anything, he doesnƞt examine anything.ơ
ƥ ƠI see some former colleagues from the university
who write things that make no sense, and with so
much pomposity, with so much scholasticism,
that I donƞt have the patience to read them.ơ
 Cardosoƞs Sociological Paradigm
ƥ Focus on historical ƥ Interdisciplinary
conjunctures, not ƥ Feasible policy options
lasting theory ƥ Timeliness rather than
ƥ Qualitative interviews completeness
and field work ƥ Combine quantitative
ƥ Heuristic Ơtool boxơ of and qualitative data
theories
 Cardosoƞs Practice
ƥ Ended Brazilƞs Hyper-Inflation as Finance
Minister in the Previous Government
ƥ Won Congressional and support for needed
economic reforms
ƥ Modified his plan in 1999, avoiding the kind
of crisis Argentina is now experiencing
ƥ Achieved fiscal stability with economic
growth and social progress
 Evidence of Accomplishment

ƥ The slides with white backgrounds were prepared

by Eduardo Graeff of President Cardosoƞs office
ƥ A full set of slides, (with text in English or in
Portuguese) is available at http://goertzel.org/ted
ƥ The first slide shows Brazilian monthly inflation
rates before and after Cardosoƞ Ơreal planơ in
1994
Inflação 1983-2001 (IPCA mensal)

82%

47%

37%

26%
20% 21%
14%
10%
jun/83

jun/84

jun/85

jun/86

jun/87

jun/88

jun/89

jun/90

jun/91

jun/92

jun/93

jun/94

jun/95

jun/96

jun/97

jun/98

jun/99

jun/00

jun/01
Fonte: IB GE

]

 

 

 

  

Salári í i ( édias anuais, d flaci nad p l I - I , R$ d abr. )


 
 ,

 

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nt : I  . T xt
para Discuss
n.

. Miguel N. guel, Laur Ramos e rancisco arneiro. tualizado para incluir

 


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Raz o salário mínimo/cesta básica


1,


1,

1,1

,0


0,


0,

0, 


0,
Jun/00

Jun/01
Jun/

Jun/

Jun/

Jun/

Jun/

Jun/

Fonte: DI SE

°   
     



    
opulaç o abaixo da linha de pobreza
obres (  ) Indigentes (  )

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000
Fonte:IEA, com base na NAD. 1991, 1994 e 2000: estimativa DISOC/IEA



 



  

Atendimento escolar
7 a 10 11 a 14 15 a 17 18 a 24

97%
92% 95%
89%
89%
85%
78%
69%
66%
65% 59%

48%

33%
27%
22%
20%
1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999
Fonte: INE

  

  

Analfabetismo
15 anos e + 10 a 14 anos

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%
20%
17%

15% 16% 16%

13%
11%
10%

5%
1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999
Fonte: IEA com base na NAD


 !
 
"# 
  
Atendimento escolar de 7 a 14 anos por raça
Am arela Branca arda reta Indígena

99%
98%
97%
95%
93%
91%

87%

83%

79%
77%

1992 1999

Fonte: INE

  

 
 
° 
 
$ 
% &&'

&' 



Mortalidade infantil (por mil nascidos vivos)
Brasil Nordeste Norte Sudeste C. Oeste Sul

140

120

100

80

60
60
52
41
40
33

20 24 20

0
1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001
Fonte: IBG E



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&


 '
$(

 

)
*
 &*
&
 &




Esperança de vida ao nascer (anos)
Brasil N NE SE S CO

71,0
69,8
69,1
68,6
67,2
66,3
65,1 65,8
64,2

63,1
62,0

57,9
1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000
Fonte: IBGE

Ö+
  
& 


3ndice de Desenvolvimento Humano - IDH

0,750

0,734

0,710

0,690

0,676
1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999
Fonte: NUD

›
* 

+ ,
-  


|ariaç o do roduto Interno Bruto
81-92 93-00

-0,5%
IB per capita
1,9%

1,4%
IB
3,3%

-0,14%
Indústria
3,1%

2,6%
Agropecuária
3,0%

Fonte: NAD


 
./0 1/0### 
  &  &





 


Entrada de investimentos diretos (US$ bilhões)

riv atizaç o Dem ais

32,8

28,9 28,6

22,6

19,0
26,1
19,8
22,7

10,8 13,7 21,6

4,4 8,1
2,1 2,1 8,8
1,1 1,3 6,1 6,7
5,2
2,6
1,1

2001*
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000
Fonte: Banco Central do Brasil. (*) Jan./nov.

-




 
 $ 
  




 



 Taxa de desemprego nas regiões metropolitanas

7,6% 7,6%
7,1%

6,2%

5,7% 5,7%
5,3% 5,4%
5,1%
4,8%
4,6%
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001*
Fonte: IBGE, esquisa Mensal de Emprego

›
 

]
 

 
Usuários da Internet no Brasil (milhões)

12

0
Jan/96

Set/96

Jan/97

Set/97

Jan/98

Set/98

Jan/99

Set/99

Jan/00

Set/00

Jan/01

Set/01
Mai/96

Mai/97

Mai/98

Mai/99

Mai/00

Mai/01


Fonte: esquisas div ersas. Elaboraç o: www.e-com m erce.org.br






Matrícula no ensino superior
úblico riv ado

2.378

1.661
1.519
1.545

971
934

833
690
584
1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Fonte: INE

v




 
 

 
Expans o média anual da matrícula
Total úblico riv ado

9,7%

7,4%

3,8%
3,4%

1,9% 1,8%
1,1%
0,6% 0,8%

1980/89 1989/94 1994/99

Fonte: INE

 


 
  



2  & 

 
 Gasto social do Governo Federal (R$ bilhões de un. 2001)

120
108 107

100

81
80

60

40
31

20

0
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000
Fonte: SE/MF. Deflator: ICA

 

 
 





° 
Gasto social federal por funç o do orçamento, exclusive pessoal„(média anual em R$ bilhões de un. 2001)

revidência e  Gasto
Assistência  Habitaç o e social Gasto
Social Saúde Educaç o Trabalho Urbanismo total federal total
1990-1994 28,4 7,1 4,3 4,5 0,1 44,5 72,4
1995-1999 62,6 15,6 9,0 5,8 0,4 93,4 139,6
Crescimento + 120% + 118% + 112% + 28% + 208% + 110% + 93%

Fonte: SE/MF

 

  
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#/ !/
 Continuity with Past
ƥ Social indicators had been improving and
continued to improve
ƥ Privatization policies of previous
governments continued
ƥ Openness of economy to global markets
maintained
 Changes from the Past
ƥ Successful anti-inflation plan
ƥ Maintenance of stable currency without
imposing austerity
ƥ Much greater emphasis on administrative
reform and efficiency in government
ƥ Effective implementation of land reform
and environmental protection
 Future Prospects
ƥ Democratic Transition
is Assured
ƥ Brazilians troubled by
developments in
Argentina, Venezuela,
Colombia
ƥ Continuity of policies is
likely