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CORONAVIRUS
(COVID-19) María Paz Bertoglia Arredondo
Profesor Asistente ESP
Magister Epidemiología
Magíster Bioestadística
Doctoranda en Salud Pública
Epidemiología Covid-19
09 junio 2020
“Es tiempo para los hechos, no para el miedo. Es tiempo
para la ciencia, no para rumores”
2007
2017
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2176051/pdf/0023-07.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/pdfs/us-ohzdp-report-508.pdf
¿¿Qué
Qué es
e s el
e l Coronavirus?
Co ro navirus ?
SIMULATION
S EXERCISE
IMULATION EXERCIS E NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020
23 April 2020 page
pag e 4
SARS y MERS
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200423-sitrep-94-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=b8304bf0_4
https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 5
Zoonosis
• Murciélagos (reservorio)
• Animal intermediario
- SARS: civetas
- MERS: dromedarios
- SARS-CoV2: ¿Pangolines?
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930251-8
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2169-0
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 6
Cronología COVID-19
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 7
Así se ve una pandemia
https://extranet.who.int/publicemergency
https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/next-hcov-19-app/
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 8
Transmisión
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=5ae25bc7_2
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 9
Severidad
https://www.paho.org/arg/index.php?option=com_docman&view=download&alias=487-covid-19-actualizacion-taller-periodistas-dr-marcelo-vila-6-mayo-2020&category_slug=presentaciones&Itemid=624
page 10
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020
Situation Report WHO 09/06/2020
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 11
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 12
Acciones agresivas para aplanar la curva “Distanciamiento social”
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-
candidate-vaccines
https://www.gob.cl/coronavirus/plandeaccion.html
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 13
Prevención poblacional. Recomendaciones OMS/OPS
Contención
• Manejo de casos: aislamiento
• Manejo de contactos: cuarentena
• Control IAAS
• Actividades básicas:
- Comunicación al público
- Promover higiene respiratoria
- Lavado manos
• Distanciamiento social
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 14
Prevención poblacional
Mitigación
• Estrategias poblacionales de
distanciamiento social
- Telecomunicación
- Prohibir reuniones masivas
- Suspensión clases, trabajo,
tránsito
- Cuarentenas poblacionales
- Cierre de fronteras
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 15
Estrategias poblacionales en Chile
https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 16
COVID-19 en Chile al 09/06/2020
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data?country=CHL
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 17
Casos informados al 09/06/2020: 142.759 Informe Epidemiológico 06/06/2020
• 1.577 UCI (1,3%)
• 1.325 VM (1,1%)
• 2.283 fallecidos (1,6%)***
• Personal Salud
• Recuperados-Activos reales
• Datos desagregados
http://www.saludpublica.uchile.cl/noticias/164125/informe-covid-19-chile-al-07062020septimo-reporte
https://www.minsal.cl/nuevo-coronavirus-2019-ncov/informe-tecnico/
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 19
¿Estamos aplanando la curva?
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 20
R0: Nº básico reproductivo
• R0 desde inicio Pandemia R0 = 2,36 (1,72–3,52;
IC:0,95) = datos mundiales
• Re usando últimos 14 días R0 = 1,13 (1,09-1,17;
ICr0,95)
• Francamente negativo por alta carga de
infectados activos
https://www.paho.org/arg/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10430:coronavirus&Itemid=226
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 27
Recomendaciones para flexibilizar cuarentenas
https://www.paho.org/arg/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10430:coronavirus&Itemid=226
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 28
¿Cómo avanzar?
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 29
http://www.saludpublica.uchile.cl/noticias/162242/decalogo-para-el-personal-de-la-salud
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 30
Fuentes Oficiales
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.paho.org/es/temas/coronavirus/enfermedad-por-coronavir
us-covid-19
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
https://www.minsal.cl/nuevo-coronavirus-2019-ncov/informe-tecnico/
https://www.gob.cl/coronavirus/
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Muchas gracias
por la atención
mariabertoglia@med.uchile.cl
@pinabertoglia
SIMULATION EXERCISE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) Tuesday, July 21, 2020 page 31