New Risk Assessment

Tools for Improved

Hazard Risk
Management
Presentation to the

World Bank
July 26, 2005
 Overview
Ä Who we are.

Ä What is the need.

Ä The U.S. response.

Ä How developing countries and the WB can benefit from

the U.S. experience.

Ä How NIBS & the MAE Center can support making it

happen4
 Who We Are
Ä National Institute of Building Sciences
A non-profit, non-governmental organization authorized by
the U.S. Congress.
Develops risk assessment and decision support tools, such
as HAZUS, and conducts related studies and research.

Ä Mid-America Earthquake Center

Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and
partner universities.
Develops computer based decision support tools on a
shared network system.
Researches earthquakes and risk reduction methods.
 Our Mission

Collaborating to bring together resources

from academia, government and the private
sector to put useful tools in the hands of
practitioners worldwide for the purpose of
reducing the human and economic costs of
natural disasters.
 Natural disasters are
extremely costly in human and
economic terms.
El Salvador Earthquakes
January and February 2001

Photo: Brent Woodworth, IBM

 Casualties (Deaths)
Ä Worldwide (1992 ± 2001) ± 77,756

Ä Indian Ocean
Tsunamis (2004) ± 273,636
Tropical Cyclone Gorky, Bangladesh (1990) ± 138,000

Ä Central America/Caribbean Basin

El Salvador Earthquakes (2001) ± 1,159
Hurricane Mitch (1998) ± 20,000
Hurricane Georges (1998) - 600
Managua Earthquake, Nicaragua (1972) ± 20,000

Ä Middle East
Bam Earthquake, Iran (2003) ± 26,000
Kocaeli Earthquakes, Turkey (1999) ± 9,500
 Economic Losses (in Billions of $)
Ä Worldwide (1992 ± 2001) - $238

Ä Indian Ocean
Tsunamis (2004) - >$20
Tropical Cyclone Gorky, Bangladesh (1990) - $.003

Ä Central America/Caribbean Basin

El Salvador Earthquakes (2001) - $3
Hurricane Mitch (1998) - $5.36
Hurricane Georges (1998) - $3.62
Managua Earthquake, Nicaragua (1972) - $1

Ä Middle East
Bam Earthquake, Iran (2003) - $1.5
Kocaeli Earthquakes, Turkey (1999) - $3.5
 What Are the Costs to the
Developing World?
Ä Billions of dollars in direct and secondary economic losses, now
and in the future.

Ä Set backs to local and national economies that may last for
decades.

Ä Greater percentages of GDP used to pay for damage and loss.

Ä Destabilized communities.

Ä Serious and long-lasting effects that contribute to continuing

poverty.
Bam, Iran Earthquake
December 2003

Photo: Masoud Zadeh

Kocaeli, Turkey Earthquake
August 1999

Photo: Charles Scawthorn

 What are the Costs to
International Lenders?
Ä Degraded sustainability of infrastructure
projects.

Ä Reduced economic value of projects.

Ä Reduced value of loan portfolios.

Grand Cayman Hurricane
September 2004

Photo: Brent Woodworth, IBM

Yala, Sri Lanka Tsunami
December 2004

Photo: USGS
Kocaeli, Turkey Earthquake
August 1999

Photo: Charles Scawthorn

Risk Management as a Response
Ä Improves structural resistance to the
effects of natural hazards.
Ä Saveslives and preserves economic
resources.
Ä Stabilizes and secures communities.
Ä Enables more effective response and
relief following disasters.
How Risk Management Works
Ä Identifies vulnerabilities and the potential
effects of natural hazards.
Ä Develops and assesses loss reduction
strategies.
Ä Provides guidance for allocating response
resources before disasters.
Ä Identifies areas of vulnerability during
disaster events.
Ä Provides information for decision-makers.
 How Risk Management Works

Residential damage:
HAZUS Hurricane Model

% Complete
Damage
How Risk Management Works

Residential damage
with mitigation:
HAZUS Hurricane Model
% Complete
Damage
 Overview of Risk
Assessment Tools
Used in the U.S.
 Risk Assessment Tools
Ä PC-based tools are central to effective
hazard risk management.
Ä In the U.S., these types of tools were
developed in response to costly disasters
in the early 1990s ± Hurricane Andrew, the
Mississippi floods and the Northridge
Earthquake.
Ä HAZUS and MAEviz are primary examples.
 HAZUS
Ä A natural hazards assessment tool that simulates
potential earthquakes, floods and hurricanes and their
physical, economic and social consequences.

Ä Based on advanced engineering and science.

Ä PC and GIS based.

Ä 13-year program sponsored by the Federal Emergency

Management Agency (FEMA).
 MAEviz
Ä Estimates potential earthquake damage, including
effects on transportation networks and socio-
economic systems.

Ä A decision support tool, using 3D virtual reality to

help users review intervention options and
evaluate loss reduction scenarios.

Ä Built on the Network for Earthquake Engineering

Simulation (NEES) grid, a system that links
earthquake researchers and practitioners
worldwide.
Use of a Risk Management Tools

Casualties and Hospitals ±

HAZUS Earthquake Model
% Hospitalized
 Applications of
HAZUS and MAEviz
Use of Risk Assessment Tools
in the U.S.
Ä National annualized loss studies.
Ä Rapid response applications.
Ä Statewide loss studies.
Ä Federal mitigation programs.
Ä Local studies.
Ä Lifeline (transportation & utility) studies.
 FEMA Uses
Ä Nationwide annualized loss studies to compare hazard
risk nationwide for earthquake, hurricane and flood
hazards.

Ä Future benefits of mitigation study, as required by

House Appropriations Committee and by the Disaster
Mitigation Act of 2000.

Ä Study to evaluate effectiveness of NFIP metrics.

Ä Required for state hazard mitigation plans under the

Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) of 2000.
 Statewide Studies
Ä Many states are performing statewide risk studies
on a county by county basis, e.g., Maryland,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Indiana, Arkansas and
Connecticut.

Ä These studies point to areas with greatest

vulnerabilities within the states.

Ä Results are being used to allocate resources and

for preparedness planning.
St. Johns County, FL - Before
After a HAZUS Flood Model 500-
500-year Event
 Regional and Local Studies
Ä Study of earthquake risks and mitigation for the tri-
state New York City metropolitan area.

Ä Used by Kansas National Guard Civilian Support

Team incident commanders during emergencies.

Ä Charlotte-Mecklenburg flood studies for rezoning.

Ä Ash fall study for a Yellowstone supervolcano event.

 Applications in Relief and
Rapid Response
Ä Four Florida hurricanes (2004): Charlie,
Jeanne, Frances and Ivan.

Ä San Simeon Earthquake, California (2003).

Ä Nisqually Earthquake, Washington (2001).

 Application in Rapid Response
Tree Debris:
HAZUS Hurricane Model
Tree Debris in Tons
 American Red Cross Uses
Ä Relief operations support.
Ä Determining hardest hit areas.
Ä Estimates for:
Number and location of people in need of
shelter, food, water, sanitation
Numbers of case workers needed
Where to obtain relief supplies
Where to locate facilities and shelters
Ä Estimates for relief effort costs based on
affected populations for fund raising efforts.
 Establishing Building Codes
Ä HAZUS used in a building code study for
manufactured housing construction and safety
standards.

Ä Verified that the homes built under new 1994 code

perform significantly better than the old code.

Ä Demonstrated the benefits of building more

manufactured housing to the higher standards, even
when not required by the code.

Ä Demonstrated the benefits of improved wind speed

mapping in HAZUS.
 Lifeline Studies
MAEviz applied to Memphis gas pipeline network
earthquake loss assessment and asset management

Diameter ± Discharge
Color - Damage
 Lifeline Studies (cont¶d)

South Carolina DoT study of Traffic Carrying Capacity

TCC
(90%)
(70%)
(40%)
(0%)
 Lifeline Studies (cont¶d)
MAEviz applied to prioritize projects to strengthen
bridges to optimize network efficiency

Tota l S ys te m Tra ve l Time :Afte r Re trofitting

Dire c t Appro a c h G A, Exa c t S o lutio n
Th o u s a n d s
2 ,5 0 0

2 ,0 0 0

1 ,5 0 0
TS TT

1 ,0 0 0

500

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Numbe r o f Links R e tro fitte d

 Benefits of
International Risk
Assessment Tools
 Risk Assessment in Developing
Countries
Ä Reduce loss of life and property.

Ä Improve emergency response.

Ä Increase stability and economic security.

Ä Support programs in mitigation, emergency

management and response and recovery.

Ä Estimate potential losses to enable better planning and

improved construction practices.
 Use of Risk Management Tools
Shelter Needs:
HAZUS Earthquake
Model
Displaced
Households
Risk Assessment and the World Bank
Ä Assist client countries in incorporating hazard
management.

Ä Improve client countries¶ risk reduction strategies

and decision-making ± in the U.S., $4 are saved for
every $1 spent on disaster loss reduction projects.

Ä Incorporate hazard management into World Bank

project planning.

Ä Support lending programs that incorporate risk

reduction.
 Risk Assessment and Regional
Organizations
Ä Maintain regional stability and economic
security.

Ä Support planning for response and

recovery.

Ä Assist countries that have diminished

means for performing hazard management.
 Overview of New
International Risk
Assessment Tools
Proposed International Application
Ä Based on HAZUS and MAEviz technology.

Ä User-friendly software.

Ä Operates on a standard PC.

Ä GIS (geographical information systems) for mapping

and data management.

Ä All risk assessment tools accessed remotely.

 Hazards
Ä Earthquakes
Ä Floods
Ä Hurricanes/Cyclones/Typhoons
Ä Tsunamis
Ä Volcanoes
Ä Landslides
Ä Wildfires
Ä Other hazards
 Hazards
Wind Speeds:
HAZUS Hurricane Model
Max. Sustained
Wind Speeds (mph)
 Risk Assessment Components
Ä Hazard characterization
Ä Building damage
Ä Essential facilities damage
Ä Vehicle damage
Ä Agricultural damage
Ä Lifelines damage
Ä Secondary fire-following loss
Ä Debris
Ä Casualties
Ä Shelter
Ä Direct economic loss
Ä Indirect economic loss
 Economic Loss Component
Direct Economic Loss:
HAZUS Flood Model
(Losses in thousands $)
 Database System
Ä Analysis with
Remotely accessed data
User-supplied data, models and technology
Ä Data collections tools
Ä Remote data storage
Tables
Multiple resolutions
Ä Mapping
Layering data for simultaneous viewing
Thematic analysis and display
Ä Editing
Ä Import-export
Managing Data in HAZUS
 Databases
Ä Population

Ä Building count & heights

Ä Land cover

Ä Boundaries, roads, contours, building

characteristics

Ä Proxy databases
Using the New Risk
Assessment Tool
Internationally
Implementation on the NEESgrid
Ä Implemented as web services - users only need a
PC and internet link to conduct risk assessment
studies.
Ä Access privileges set for users and developers.
Ä All software programs are run from the NEESgrid.
Ä All data is contained on the NEESgrid.
Ä The NEESgrid:
Links remote sites, computers and servers.
Provides data screening, storage, preservation
and sharing.
Provides uniform data and metadata (data about
data) formats and protocols.
NEESgrid Network

NEESgrid
 NEESgrid and MAEviz
MAEviz serves as the portal to NEESgrid by:
Providing access to new and existing risk assessment tools.

Providing access to new data as they become available

anywhere in the world.

Combining the new risk assessment tools with the best

existing models and data from different sources without
necessarily downloading them.

Using all available international resources to give decision-

makers the best possible information.
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 How we make use of risk data in MAEviz
Ä Large amounts of hazard and exposure data exist
Ä The new Risk Assessment tool will use D2K
Ä D2K is Data-to-knowledge, a data discovery tool
Ä Can be viewed as a very large tool box
Ä Has more than 1500 capabilities & functions
Ä Finds hidden trends & fits equations
Ä Finds relationships quickly
Ä Manages input-output
Ä Plotting relations
 Final Thoughts
Ä The state-of-the-art technology of HAZUS and MAEviz
can be used to develop effective new international risk
assessment tools.

Ä The new tools can be accessed by users anywhere in

the world through the NEESgrid/MAEviz web portal.

Ä New tools will support effective hazards risk

management programs for the World Bank, developing
countries, regional organizations, and communities.
 Why New Tools
Ä 450,000+ lives have been lost since 1990 - save lives
and protect people through improved construction
and emergency response.

Ä $250+ billion has been lost since 1990 - stabilize

communities with strategies and actions that preserve
infrastructure and communicate risk to citizens.

Ä Preserve wealth and development gains through

improved land use planning and construction
practices ± $4 saved for every $1 spent on disaster
loss reduction projects.