FLOOD FORECASTING

Presented By: Presented To:

Mckent V. Entienza Engr. Viriginia Madanguit
Group 9
 Overview

 Introduction
 Role of Flood Forecasting in Flood Mitigation
 Design Considerations
 Data Requirements
 Flood Forecasting Methods & Models
Introduction
 What is Flood Forecasting?

Flood forecasting is the use of forecasted precipitation and streamflow data

in rainfall runoff and streamflow routing models to forecast flow rates and water
levels for periods ranging from a few hours to days ahead.
 What is Flood Warning?

 Flood warning is the task of making use of these

forecasts to make decisions about whether warnings
of floods should be issued to the general public or
whether previous warnings should be rescinded or
retracted.
Relation Between Flood Forecasting and Flood Warning

 Flood forecasting is the pre-requisite for flood

warning.
 Flood warning is the outcome of flood forecasting.
 Components of Flood Forecasting & Warning System

Preparation of Communication &

Collection of Real
Forecast Warning & Dissemination of
Time Data
Information Messages Such Messages

Review & Interpretation of The

Response to The
Improvement of The Forecast & Flood
Warnings
System Observations
Role of Flood Forecasting in Flood Mitigation
 Pre-requisite for successful mitigation of flood
damage.

Plays vital role in flood management when no preventive or

defence measures can be completely effective.

Can be effectively combined with other measures for flood prevention such
as retention, land use and structural measures, flood emergency and public
awareness.

Increases flood resilience of the flood affected people.

 Evacuation of Vulnerable Groups And Moving of
Assets

Shelter
Installation of Flood Resilience Measures (e.g. Sandbags, Property Flood
Barriers)
Temporary Flood Defence
Design Considerations
 Basic Consideration

Hydromorphological Characteristics of The Basin, Topography, Geology

Shape, Boundaries And Content of a

Water Body.
 Forecast Lead Time

Basic Principle: minimum period of advance warning necessary for

preparatory action to be taken effectively

Concept of lead time has to be flexible

DATA REQUIREMENTS
 Hydrological data

Meteorological data

Topographic data

Other information and data

Hydrological Data

Discharge & Water level

Stream Gauge
Meteorological data

Rainfall intensity and duration,

precipitation forecasts and past data
RAINGAUGE
Rainfall Measurement Using Radar
Topographic data

Information about the elevation

of the surface of the Earth
Topographic map
 Other information and data

(a) Population and demographic data to indicate settlements at risk;

(b) Inventories of properties at risk;
(c) Reservoir and flood protection infrastructure control rules;
(d) Location of key transport, power and water supply infrastructure;
(e) Systematic post-flood damage assessments.
FLOOD FORECASTING METHODS
AND MODELS
The “multi-model” approach to rainfall–runoff modelling and forecasting
 SPECIAL-CASE MODELS

Storm surge
Two types of models, statistical and dynamic, can be used to forecast storm surges

Flash floods
distributed hydrological models

Urban Flooding
very high spatial and temporal resolution in data, models

Reservoir flood control

Estimates incoming flood and incorporates it with d/s riparian area
 Examples

MIKE FLOOD

Delft-FEWS
 MIKE FLOOD

Includes 1D and 2D flood simulation engines

model any flood problem

three-way coupled modelling tool

MIKE HYDRO River + MIKE URBAN + MIKE 21

MIKE FLOOD
 Delft-FEWS

provide an open shell for managing

the data handling and forecasting
process
Delft-FEWS
 FLOOD FORECAST EVALUATION
EVALUATION CRITERIA OF FLOOD FORECAST PERFORMANCE:
Five statistical criteria considered:
 Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
 Tracking Signal (TS)
 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
 Simple Moving Average (SMA)
 Data And Result

Period Demand Forecast Devaiatio Absolute Absolute

Percentage of
(F) n (At-Ft) Devaiatio Error At-Ft/A
n (At-Ft)

1 120 125 -5 5 4.17

2 130 125 5 5 3.85
3 110 125 -15 15 13.64 120
4 140 125 15 15 10.71 126.67
5 110 125 -15 15 13.64 120
6 130 125 5 5 3.85 126.67
Total = -10 60 49.86
 Mean Forecast Error

  

MFE = MFE =
Where:
) = Running sum of = -1.67
forecast errors (RSFE)

 Ideal MFE=0
 (+) means tendency to under forecast
 (-) mean tendency to over forecast
Mean Absolute Deviation Tracking Signal
     

MAD =  TS =
= 10  = -1
Tracking Signal

where at is the actual value of the

quantity being forecast, and ft is the
forecast. MAD is the
mean absolute deviation. The formula
for the MAD is:
 Mean Absolute Percentage Error

     

MAPE = x 100%
where:  MAPE =
) = Running sum of forecast
errors (RSFE)
 = 8.31%
 = the number of total periods
 = the observed water levels
 Simple Moving Average

  
 SMA =
 Where:
 SMA =
 = the price of an asset at = 120
period
 = the number of total
periods
Thank You