OCTA RESEARCH COVID-

19 MONITORING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2, 2020
DISCLAIMER
 The OCTA team is an independent and interdisciplinary research
group composed primarily of UP faculty members and alumni. This
independent research team also includes contributors from the
University of Santo Tomas and Providence College, USA.
 The findings and recommendations in the report are those of the
authors and do not reflect the official position of the University of
the Philippines, University of Santo Tomas, Providence College, or
any of its units.
 The COVID-19 Pandemic in the PHILIPPINES
(November 1, 2020)

Total Cases: 383,113

Active Cases: 27,115 (7%)
Recovered Cases: 348,760 (91%)
Deaths: 7,238 (2%)
PHILIPPINES DAILY NEW
CASES BY TESTING (DOH
DATA) Philippines Daily New Cases By Testing

2895 2757 2685

2250
1979 1956

Sept 20 - 26 Sept 27 - Oct 3 Oct 4 - 10 Oct 11 - 17 Oct 18 - 24 Oct 25 - 31

PHILIPPINES REPRODUCTION
NUMBER RT
Philippines Reproduction Number Ro

0.89
0.87
0.86
0.85

0.82
0.81

Sept 20 - 26 Sept 27 - Oct 3 Oct 4 - 10 Oct 11 - 17 Oct 18 - 24 Oct 25 - 31

PROVINCES RANKED ACCORDING TO MOST
NUMBER OF NEW COVID-19 CASES PER DAY
Rank Province New Cases (10/26 - 11/1) (10/19 – 10/25)
1 NCR 490 (7%) 525
2 Benguet 101 (42%) 71
3 Davao Del Sur 90 (13%) 79
4 Cavite 87 (5%) 92
5 Negros Occidental 85 (24%) 69
6 Rizal 80 (1%) 81
7 Iloilo 69 (11%) 78
8 Laguna 68 (15%) 80
9 Batangas 60 (12%) 68
10 Quezon 59 (5%) 56
LGU’s marked RED denote an increase in new cases (% increase indicated).
LGU’s marked BLUE denote an increase in new cases (% decrease indicated)
PROVINCES RANKED ACCORDING TO MOST
NUMBER OF NEW COVID-19 CASES PER DAY
Rank Province New Cases (10/26 - 11/1) (10/19 – 10/25)
11 Zamboanga Del Sur 53 (18%) 45
12 Pampanga 52 (9%) 48
13 Bulacan 50 (0%) 50
14 Misamis Oriental 43 (18%) 52
15 Cebu 35 (2%) 36
16 Northern Samar 25 (8%) 27
17 Pangasinan 24 (15%) 21
18 South Cotabato 24 (17%) 29
19 Leyte 23 (28%) 18
20 Isabela 20 (23%) 25
LGU’s marked RED denote an increase in new cases (% increase indicated).
LGU’s marked BLUE denote an increase in new cases (% decrease indicated)
THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
(NCR) DAILY NEW CASES BY
TESTING
NCR Daily New Cases (By Testing)

1691 1620
1390

1069
829 779

Sept 20 - 26 Sept 27 - Oct 3 Oct 4 - 10 Oct 11 - 17 Oct 18 - 24 Oct 25 - 31

PRC has resumed testing in NCR. NCR is now averaging less than 1000 new cases per day.
REPRODUCTION NUMBER RT
IN NCR
NCR Reproduction Number Rt

0.82

0.78 0.77

0.72
0.69 0.68

Sept 20 - 26 Sept 27 - Oct 3 Oct 4 - 10 Oct 11 - 17 Oct 18 - 24 Oct 25 - 31

PRC has resumed testing in NCR. NCR reproduction number Rt is still less than 1.
POSITIVITY RATE IN NCR*
NCR Positivity Rate

9% 8%
7%
6% 6% 6%

Sept 20 - 26 Sept 27 - Oct 3 Oct 4 - 10 Oct 11 - 17 Oct 18 - 24 Oct 25 - 31

*WHO ideal rate is 5%. Philippine Red Cross has resumed testing in NCR
CITIES AND MUNICIPALITIES
WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBER OF NEW CASES
PER DAY (OCT 25 TO 31)
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province Daily Last Attack Hospital
Week Cases* Week* Rate** Occupancy***
1 1 Quezon City NCR 89 100 3.0% 53%
2 3 Davao City Davao Del Sur 69 66 3.7% 81%
3 2 Manila NCR 63 76 3.6% 34%
4 4 Caloocan NCR 54 63 3.5% 21%
5 9 Baguio City Benguet 39 37 10.3% 86%
6 6 Pasig NCR 38 48 5.1% 48%
7 7 Makati NCR 36 41 6.0% 69%
8 8 Cagayan De Oro Misamis Oriental 33 39 4.7% 56%
9 10 Zamboanga City Zamboanga Del Sur 33 36 3.7% 56%
10 5 Iloilo City Iloilo 32 52 8.9% 55%

*Average daily new cases from Oct 25 to 31 based on DOH case reports (compared with Oct 18 to 24).
Case reports may be underestimated because of the Philippine Red Cross halt in testing.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
***Occupancy as of Oct 30. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province Daily Last Attack Hospital
Week Cases* Week* Rate** Occupancy***
11 11 Taguig NCR 32 33 3.2% 50%
12 - Tuba Benguet 30 2 30.0% N/A
13 19 Malabon NCR 29 21 6.6% 24%
14 13 Pasay NCR 23 29 5.8% 21%
15 12 Valenzuela NCR 21 31 3.9% 44%
16 14 Marikina NCR 21 26 4.9% 31%
17 34 Batangas City Batangas 20 12 4.5% 60%
18 15 Antipolo Rizal 18 22 2.2% 67%
19 16 Bacolod Negros Occidental 15 22 3.0% 31%
20 20 Paranaque NCR 15 19 2.3% 22%

*Average daily new cases from Oct 25 to 31 based on DOH case reports (compared with Oct 18 to 24).
Case reports may be underestimated because of the Philippine Red Cross halt in testing.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
***Occupancy as of Oct 30. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province Daily Last Attack Hospital
Week Cases* Week* Rate** Occupancy***
21 - Taytay Rizal 15 11 3.8% 58%
22 23 Mandaluyong NCR 15 18 3.6% 12%
23 33 Itogon Benguet 15 13 22.0% N/A
24 22 Cainta Rizal 15 19 5.0% 58%
25 38 Cotabato City Maguindanao 14 11 3.8% 68%
26 24 General Santos South Cotabato 14 18 2.4% 49%
27 26 Lucena Quezon 14 15 4.9% 79%
28 17 Butuan Agusan Del Norte 14 22 4.8% 49%
29 21 Calamba Laguna 13 19 3.0% 41%
30 29 Angeles City Pampanga 13 15 2.6% 58%

*Average daily new cases from Oct 25 to 31 based on DOH case reports (compared with Oct 18 to 24).
Case reports may be underestimated because of the Philippine Red Cross halt in testing.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
***Occupancy as of Oct 30. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LGU’S WITH THE MOST NEW CASES PER DAY*
Rank Last LGU Province Daily Last Attack Hospital
Week Cases* Week* Rate** Occupancy***
31 18 Las Pinas NCR 12 22 2.7% 68%
32 - Pagadian Zamboanga Del Sur 12 5 4.1% 73%
33 28 Dasmarinas Cavite 11 14 1.6% 67%
34 40 Bacoor Cavite 11 10 1.5% 25%
35 - San Fernando Pampanga 11 8 2.9% 56%
36 31 San Carlos Negros Occidental 10 14 8.9% 54%
37 39 General Trias Cavite 10 10 2.5% 45%
38 32 Muntinlupa NCR 10 13 2.1% 64%
39 - Catarman Northern Samar 10 6 7.7% 79%
40 - San Juan NCR 10 8 7.1% 33%

*Average daily new cases from Oct 25 to 31 based on DOH case reports (compared with Oct 18 to 24).
Case reports may be underestimated because of the Philippine Red Cross halt in testing.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
***Occupancy as of Oct 30. Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 LOCAL GOVERNMENT
UNITS (LGUS) IN THE NCR
RANKED BY ATTACK RATE
In the analysis of hotspots, we use as basis the attack rate per 1000
for the most current 2 week period. The attack rate is just the number
of new cases per day relative to population. For example, a daily attack
rate of 5% per 1000 means that there are 5 new cases per 100,000 of
population per day. A higher attack rate means more people are
getting infected.
 NCR LGU’S RANK BASED ON ATTACK RATE*
Rank Last LGU Attack New Cases per Hospital Occupancy
Week Rate* Day** (10/30/20)***
1 3 San Juan 7.1% 10 33%
2 11 Malabon 6.6% 29 24%
3 1 Pateros 6.1% 4 94%
4 4 Makati 6.0% 36 69%
5 2 Pasay 5.8% 23 21%
6 5 Pasig 5.1% 38 48%
7 8 Marikina 4.9% 21 31%
8 12 Valenzuela 3.9% 21 44%

*Average daily new cases from Oct 25 to 31 based on DOH case reports. Case reports may be underestimated
because of the Philippine Red Cross halt in testing.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
***Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
 NCR LGU’S RANK BASED ON ATTACK RATE*
Rank Last LGU Attack New Cases per Hospital Occupancy
Week Rate* Day** (10/30/20)***
9 16 Navotas 3.9% 10 24%
10 10 Manila 3.6% 63 34%
11 6 Mandaluyong 3.6% 15 12%
12 15 Caloocan 3.5% 54 21%
13 7 Taguig 3.2% 32 50%
14 9 Quezon City 3.0% 89 53%
15 17 Las Pinas 2.7% 12 68%
16 13 Paranaque 2.3% 15 22%
17 14 Muntinlupa 2.1% 10 64%

*Average daily new cases from Oct 25 to 31 based on DOH case reports. Case reports may be underestimated
because of the Philippine Red Cross halt in testing.
**Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
***Critical threshold of 70% established by the DOH.
HOSPITAL OCCUPANCY IN
NCR
HOSPITAL OCCUPANCY FOR TOTAL COVID-19 BEDS REMAINS
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE LGUS IN THE
NCR
HOSPITAL OCCUPANCY FOR TOTAL COVID-19 BEDS REMAINS
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE LGUS IN THE
NCR
LGUS OUTSIDE OF NCR
RANKED BY ATTACK RATE
(OCT 18 TO 31)
LGU’S (EXCLUDING NCR) RANK BASED ON ATTACK
RATE
Rank Last Week LGU Province Attack Rate*
1 - Tuba Benguet 30.0%
2 1 Itogon Benguet 22.0%
3 4 Baguio City Benguet 10.3%
4 3 Iloilo City Iloilo 8.9%
5 17 San Carlos Negros Occidental 8.9%
6 - Polillo Quezon 8.0%
7 22 Catarman Northern Samar 7.7%
8 - Maasim Sarangani 7.0%
9 - Tayabas Quezon 6.2%
10 2 Ilagan Isabela 6.1%
* Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
The attack rates may be underestimated due to missing data from Philippine Red Cross.
LGU’S (EXCLUDING NCR) RANK BASED ON ATTACK
RATE
Rank Last Week LGU Province Attack Rate*
11 14 Victorias Negros Occidental 5.5%
12 10 Angono Rizal 5.0%
13 23 Cainta Rizal 5.0%
14 9 Lucena Quezon 4.9%
15 11 Lucban Quezon 4.9%
16 29 La Trinidad Benguet 4.9%
17 18 Butuan Agusan Del Norte 4.8%
18 - Cagayan de Oro Misamis Oriental 4.7%
19 6 Maasin Southern Leyte 4.6%
20 16 Batangas City Batangas 4.5%
* Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
The attack rates may be underestimated due to missing data from Philippine Red Cross.
LGU’S (EXCLUDING NCR) RANK BASED ON ATTACK
RATE
Rank Last Week LGU Province Attack Rate*
21 24 Pavia Iloilo 4.4%
22 - Lopez Quezon 4.2%
23 - Oton Iloilo 4.2%
24 25 Surigao City Surigao Del Norte 4.1%
25 - Pagadian Zamboanga Del Sur 4.1%
26 - Malvar Batangas 4.0%
27 - Roxas City Capiz 4.0%
28 8 Dagupan Pangasinan 3.9%
29 28 Calbayog Western Samar 3.9%
20 - Catbalogan Western Samar 3.9%
* Daily attack rate per 1000 is based on the 2 week period from Oct 18 to 31.
The attack rates may be underestimated due to missing data from Philippine Red Cross.
 KEY FINDINGS
 Based on the latest data from the Department of Health (DOH), the reproduction
number Rt in the Philippines increased slightly to 0.86 for the period from Oct. 25 to 31.
But Rt in the Philippines is still less than 1.
 The reproduction number Rt in the NCR also increased slightly to 0.72 for the period
from Oct. 25 to 31. But Rt in the NCR is still less than 1.
 The positivity rate in NCR is 6%, close to the WHO target of 5%
 Philippine Red Cross (PRC) has resumed PCR testing, and its numbers are scaling up to
pre-October 16 levels.
 The number of new cases in the Philippines continues to decrease even with PRC
testing resuming.
 The number of new cases in NCR continues to decrease even with PRC testing
resuming. The average number is 490 per day.
 KEY FINDINGS
 Pateros is the only LGU in NCR with more than 70% hospital bed occupancy.
 The top 5 provinces in terms of new cases for the monitoring period from Oct. 25
to 31 are: NCR, Benguet, Davao Del Sur, Cavite and Negros Occidental.
 The top 5 LGU’s in terms of new cases for the monitoring period from Oct. 25 to
31 are: Quezon City, Davao City, Manila, Caloocan and Baguio City
 Provinces of concern for the monitoring period from Oct. 25 to 31 are Benguet
and Quezon.
LGU’S OF CONCERN
(HIGH-RISK)
LGU’S OF CONCERN (HIGH-
RISK)
 We list LGUs of concern or high-risk areas based on high cases per
day, high attack rate, and/or high hospital occupancy.
 We are concerned that these LGUs may experience high hospital
burden in the coming weeks that may stress their health care
systems and overwhelm their medical front-liners.
HIGH-RISK LGU’S
 The LGU’s marked as high risk (high daily case load, high attack rate) are:
 NCR: Makati and Malabon
 Luzon: Baguio City, Itogon and Tuba (Benguet), Lucena (Quezon)
 Visayas: Iloilo City (Iloilo), Catarman (Northern Samar)
 Mindanao: Pagadian (Zamboanga Del Sur)
SUMMARY AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
 SUMMARY AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the latest data published by the DOH, the value of Rt for the entire Philippines and for the NCR increased
slightly and is now currently at 0.86 and 0.72 respectively. Both the Rt in the Philippines and the NCR are still less than 1.

The positivity rate for the NCR continues to trend in the right direction at 6%, which is now close to the WHO target of
5%.

The number of new cases in the Philippines continues to decrease even with PRC testing resuming.

The number of new cases in NCR continues to decrease even with PRC testing resuming. The average number is 490 per
day.
 SUMMARY AND
We
RECOMMENDATIONS
reiterate that the positive downward trends in the Philippines and in the NCR can be easily be reversed, as evidenced by the current and very
significant outbreaks in Europe and the US, if the government, the private sector and the public become less vigilant and complacent in the fight
against Covid-19. To sustain these positive trends will require ever more significant cooperation, collaboration and vigilance from all sectors of
society.

Tothis end, we urge the national and the local governments to strictly monitor and enforce compliance with minimum health standards
such as physical distancing, the wearing of face mask and face shields and proper hygiene to reverse the increase in transmissions at the
community level.

.
 SUMMARY AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
In the high-risk
LGUs identified in the NCR and other LGUs around the country, we urge the local government units (LGUs)
concerned to further intensify their efforts at testing, tracing, and isolation to reverse the increase in transmissions in their
communities.

Furthermore, in the identified high-risk LGUs, the  implementation of  more aggressive and effective localized lockdowns with
stricter border controls is urgently needed to suppress further viral transmissions.

.
 SUMMARY AND
AsRECOMMENDATIONS
 the national government continues to reopen the economy, there is the possibility
of a significant surge in Covid-19 cases similar to the current outbreaks experienced in
Europe and the US. It is in this light, that we urge the national government;
(1) to further increase the capacity of the national health care system (manpower,
equipment and bed capacity) to deal with the current and potential outbreaks.
(2) to further increase testing to cope with the expected surge in cases.
(3) to further scale-up of contact tracing efforts and to ensure that a robust and
effective contact tracing app for active case finding is utilized all over the country.
(4) to continue building more isolation facilities not just in the NCR but also
strategically in regions around the country where hospital capacities are limited and
and to improve the system for coordination and sharing of medical and isolation
facilities;
(5) to improve the capabilities of LGUs to implement public health programs and to
undertake effective epidemic monitoring and surveillance.
 OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS
Given the reality that more typhoons are set to visit the country in the coming weeks,  we suggest that LGUs seriously
consider improving their current evacuation strategies and plans to prevent further viral transmissions during a
disaster by ensuring that minimum health standards are followed in evacuation centers apart from the provision of
adequate and accessible  testing, effective contact tracing and supportive isolation facilities to families stranded in these
facilities. 

We continue to exhort the private sector to intensify their efforts to complement the initiatives of the government in
ensuring safety in workplaces, the provision of adequate testing as needed, the ensuring of compliance with minimum
health standards and implementation effective contact tracing in the workplace. The cooperation of the business
establishments will significantly reduce the risk of workplace transmission while jump-starting economic recovery.
OCTA RESEARCH TEAM
 Guido David, Ph.D.

 Professor, Institute of Mathematics

 University of the Philippines and Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

 Ranjit Singh Rye, MPA

 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science

 University of the Philippines and Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

 Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, O.P., Ph.D., S.Th.D., MBA

 Professor, Department of Biology, Providence College

 Visiting Professor of Biological Sciences, Pontifical University of Santo Tomas

 Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

 Ma Patricia Agbulos, MBM

 Associate, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)

With contributions from

 Erwin Alampay, Ph.D.

Professor, National College of Public Administration and Governance,

University of the Philippines

 Eero Rosini Brillantes

 CEO, Blueprint Campaign Consultancy (www.blueprint.ph)

 Benjamin Co, M.D.

 Asian Hospital and Medical Center, UST Hospital, Cardinal Santos Medical Center
 Bernhard Egwolf, Dr. rer. nat.
 Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics and Physics,
 College of Science, Pontifical University of Santo Tomas

 Franco Felizarta, M.D.

 Bakersfield, CA

 Troy Gepte, M.D.

 Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)  

 Bryan Albert Lim

 Fellow, OCTA Research (www.octaresearch.com)  
 Rodrigo Angelo Ong, M.D.
 Professorial Lecturer, Science Society Program, University of the Philippines

 
 Michael Tee, MD, MHPED, MBA
 Professor, UP College of Medicine
 Chair, Philippine One Health University Network

 
 Benjamin Vallejo Jr. Ph.D.
 Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology & the
 Science Society Program, College of Science, University of the Philippines