Mathematical Expectation

Lecture # 2
 Statistical Inference
Statistical inference comprises those
methods concern with the analysis
of subset of the data leading to
prediction or inference about the
data.
 Random Variable
Random:
As per Merriam Webster’s random means without definite aim,
direction, rule, method, plan, purpose or pattern.
Variable:
Any characteristic or property of any thing that varies from time to time,
place to place, organization to organization, individual to individual.
 Random Variable
Definition 1
a numerical event whose value is determined by a chance process.
This definition valid when the variable or information is in the form of
numbers.
Example: No. of “A” grade students in the class, No. of units sold per
day, height of male students in the class etc
Definition 2
“A rule which assigns numbers to the outcomes of the possibility
space is called a Random Variable”. This definition is valid when
outcomes are non numeric. Capital English letters say X to denote a
random variable and its corresponding small letter, x in this case for
one of its values.
 Random Variable (Cont…)
Example: A coin is tossed three times. Find the possibility space and
the values of the random variables X , Y , and N where;
X is the number of heads, Y is the number of tails
N, Sum of Heads and Tail , consider value of head +1 and Tail -1

Possibility X Y N
Space
HHH 3 0 3
HHT 2 1 1
HTH 2 1 1
HTT 1 2 -1
THH 2 1 1
THT 1 2 -1
TTH 1 2 -1
TTT 0 3 -3
 Continuous RV VS Discrete RV
Continuous Sample Space: If a sample space contains infinite number
possibilities equal to the number of points on a line segment, it is called a
continuous sample space. Random variable defined over continuous
sample space, called Continuous Random Variable. The data of CRV
comes through measurement process.

Discrete Sample Space: If a sample space contains a finite number of

possibilities or an unending sequence with as many elements as there are
whole numbers, it is called a discrete sample space. Random variable
defined over discrete sample space, called Discrete Random Variable.
The data of DRV comes through counting process.
 Probability Distribution
Discrete Probability Distribution:
A table or a function (called as discrete probability distribution function)
listing all possible values that a discrete random variable X can take on,
along with the associated probabilities, is called a discrete probability
distribution. In any discrete probability distribution, the sum of
probabilities should always be equal to one”.
Example: A coin is tossed three times. Develop the probability
distribution table for the random variable X, where X is the number of
heads, Probability distribution table for X
X P(X)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
Total Probability 8/8 = 1
 Probability Distribution
Probability Density Function:
The function with values f(x) is called a probability density function for
the continuous random variable X if the total area under the curve and
above the x axis is equal to 1 and if the area under the curve between
any two ordinates x=a and x=b gives the probability that X lies between
a and b. As the continuous random variable X having infinite values
therefore for depicting probability use graph instead of table.
 Probability Mass Function
The Probability Mass Function (PMF) also called a probability
function or frequency function or Probability Discrete Function.
The probability distribution for the discrete random variable “X” is
known as probability mass function.
The probability mass function (PMF) must hold the following properties:
(i) Px (x) ≥ 0 (ii) ∑xϵRange(x) Px (x) = 1
Example: Determine whether the function , for X = 1,
P ( x )  ( X  1 ) / 14
2, 3, & 4 can be a probability distribution.

X P(x)
1 2/14
2 3/14
3 4/14
4 5/14
Total 14/14 = 1
 Expected Value of RV X
In probability distribution of a random variable X, the mean, also
referred to as Mathematical Expectation or Expected Value, and the
variance are defined as:
 Expected Value of RV X
Example: A coin is tossed three times. Develop the probability distribution
table for the random variable X, where X is the number of heads. Also
calculate the expected value of X; E(X) and Variance of X; V(X).

Expected Value = E(X)=ΣXP(X)=1.5 X P(X) XP(X) X2 P(x)

0 1/8 0 0
Variance = ΣX2P(X)-(E(X))2
= 3 – (1.5)2 1 3/8 3/8 3/8
= 3 - 2.25
= 0.75 2 3/8 6/8 12/8
3 1/8 3/8 9/8
Standard Deviation = (0.75)
Total 1.0 12/8=1.5 3
=
0.866
 Expected value of RV f(x)
Following formulae will use for the calculation of expected
value and variance of random variable g(x)
Expected value of RV f(x)
 Properties of the Mean and Variance
when g(x) is the function of single RV ‘x’
 Properties of the Mean and Variance
when Z is the function of two RV ‘x, y’
i.e. Z is f(x,y)
Summary of Chapter Random Variable
 Guidance for Exercise
Book: Introduction to Statistics Third Edition By Ronald Walpole
 
Problem relate to path 6: Exercise on page 150, Q No. 5, 18, 20
 
Problem relate to “1-----4----6 Page 150, Q# 9, 10, 11, 21, 22, 23, 24
 
Problem relate to “2-----5----6 Page 150, Q#1, 3,
 
Problem relate to “3-----6 Page 150, Q# 6,7,8
 
Problem relate to “5-----6 Page 150, Q#2 only