Electrical Energy Crises

Remedial Measures,
Emphasizing the hydel
power role
By
Prof.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta
Energy the lifeline of economic development.
Pakistan is the poorest of the poor as far as
energy consumption for capital is concerned.
Per capita energy consumption, is one of the
indicator of Industrial development and quality
of life of a country.
Pakistan has 14 Million BTU’s as compared
to 92 Million BTU’s of Malaysia and 34 Million
BTU’s for China.
Per Capita electrical consumption per year of
Pakistan is 470kWh, & of Malaysia is 2,708 &
of Singapore is 6,775 kWh
Electrical Power Generation Plan
2005
 Electric Power Demand (2007-2025)

120000

101478
100000

80000 72169
MW

60000
44903

40000
35413

22353
20000

17328
0
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028
 Generation Expansion Plan 2007-2030

  2007 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydel 6474 7379 9071 17423 23948 23948

IPPs 6466 14205 22045 36345 58955 95355

Genco+KESC 6431 10082 10082 10082 10082 10082

Rental 150 846 846 846 846 846

Total 19521 32512 42044 64696 93831 130231

 Generation Expansion Plan (2007-2030)

140000 130231

120000
93831
100000

80000
MW

64696
60000
42044
40000 32512

20000
19521
0
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

As per generation expansion plan system needs additions of 32512 MW and

93831 MW by years 2012 and by 2025, respectively.
 Hydropower Generation Expansion Plan

30000

25000 23948 23948

20000 17423
MW

15000

10000 9071
6464

5000 7379

0
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

2597 MW by 2015 and 17474 MW by 2025.

 
 Hydropower Addition as Per Generation
Expansion Plan

8352
9000
8000
6525
7000
6000
5000
MW

4000
3000 1692
905
2000
1000
0
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
 Hydropower projects under study.

Tentative Estimated
Installed
Sr. Locati completion Construction
Project River Capacity Present Status
No. on month of Cost
(MW)
the study (US$)
1 Keyal Keyal Patan 122 Jun 2009 Feasibility Study completed. 160 million
Khwar Khwar Detailed Design and Tender
Documents initiated.

2 Kohala Kohala 1100 Aug 2009 Feasibility Study, Detailed 1.7 billion
Design and Tender
Documents in progress.

3 Dasu Dasu 4000 Mar 2011 Feasibility Study in 6.5 billion

progress.
4 Lower Spat Gah Patan 610 Dec 2010 Feasibility Study in 700 million
Spat Gah progress.

5 Chor Patan 621 Dec 2010 Feasibility Study in 700 million

Nullah progress.
6 Bunji Gilgit 5400 Apr 2010 Feasibility Study, Detailed 6 billion
Design and Tender
Documents in progress.

7 Phandar Ghizar Gilgit 80 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants 65 million

for Detailed Design and
Tender Documents in
process.
8 Basho Basho Skardu 28 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants 30 million
for Detailed Design and
Tender Documents in
process.
9 Lawi Shishi Darosh 70 Jun 2011 Feasibility Study completed. 120 million
- PC-II for Detailed Design
Chitral and Tender Documents
initiated.
10 Thakot Thakot 2800 Jun 2013 PC-II for Feasibility Study, 5 billion
Detailed Design and Tender
Documents under
preparation.
11 Patan Patan 2800 Jun 2015 PC-II for Feasibility Study, 5 billion
Detailed Design and Tender
Documents under
preparation.
12 Golen Gol Golen Chitral 106 Nov 2008 Study for Detailed Design 130 million
Gol- - and Tender Documents in
Mastuj Mastuj progress. Tendering
progress initiated.
13 Harpo Harpo- Skardu 33 PC-II for Detailed Design 40 million
Lungma and Tender Documents
prepared & ready for
submission to Ministry of
Water & Power.
14 Yulbo Skardu 3000 Desk study & field 6 billion
reconnaissance initiated
TOTAL 32.15
20770 billion
 Power Sector Installed Capacity of Pakistan
An overview of Installed Capacity of Power Sector of the
country is as follows:
WAPDA Thermal - 6441 MW
Hydel - 6464 MW
Nuclear - 462 MW
IPPS (Thermal) - 6154 MW
Total - 19521 MW
Study of the utilization of various sources of power
development in the country concludes as follows:
Gas - 35.7%
Oil - 28.7%
Coal - 0.3%
Nuclear - 2.3%
Hydel - 33%
 Installed Hydropower Stations
Components of Hydropower System in Pakistan
Sr. No. Name of Station Installed capacity (MWs)
1 Tarbela 3478.00
2 Ghazi Barotha 1450.00
3 Mangla 1000.00
4 Warsak 240.00
5 Chashma 184.00
6 Rasul 22.00
7 Malakand 19.60
8 Dargai 20.00
9 Nandipur 13.80
10 Shadiwal 13.50
11 Chichoki Malian 13.20
12 K.Garhi & Renala 5.10
13 Chitral 1.00
14 Satpara 4.86
Total 6464.00
 Public Sector Future Projects
Installed
Name of
Capacity Present Status
Project
(MW)
Kalabagh 3600 Feasibility & Tender
Documents
Completed
Basha 4500 Feasibility
Completed & Detailed
Design in Progress
Munda 660 “

Total 8760
 Hydropower Projects in Private Sector
Name of Project Capacity Tentative
(MW) Commissioning
New Bong Escape at 84 2010
Rajdhani at Punch 132 2011
(AJK)
Matiltan at Swat 84 2012

Malakand III( ) 81 2008

Kotli 100 2011

Gulpur (AJK) 120 2012

Gabral – Kalam 101 2012

 WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING

NTDC
(1)

POWER WING

GENCOs DISCOs
(4) (9)

GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION

ThermalPower
Thermal Power GridStation/Trans.
Grid Station/Trans.Lines
Lines
AreaElectricity
Area ElectricityBoards
Boards
Stations
Stations Operation&&Maintenance
Operation Maintenance
 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR
GENERATION PATTERN
Hydel
Oil 6489 MW
6497 MW (33%)
(34%)

Nuclear
452 MW
(2%)
Coal
Total 19403 MW Gas 150 MW
5815 MW (1%)
(30%)
 WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING

NTDC
(1)
WAPDA HYDEL
(1) POWER WING

GENCOs DISCOs
(4) (9)

GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION

ThermalPower
Thermal Power GridStation/Trans.
Grid Station/Trans.Lines
Lines
DistributionCompanies
Distribution Companies
Stations
Stations Operation&&Maintenance
Operation Maintenance
 There are several Barriers in the development of Hydel Power
1.Technology and Information Barriers.
2. Policy Barriers.
3.Regulatory Barriers.
4. Institutional Barriers.
5.Financial Barriers.
6.Interconnection Barriers.
7.Tariff.
8.Procedural impediments.
9.Risks
a. Hydrological Risks
b. Geological Risks.
c. Environment Risks.
d. Miscellaneous.
 Technology and information Barriers.
We lack knowledge & information about the technology
of hydel power.
Need for education of hydel power technology not only
for the students & engineers but also for general public
Strategy to achieve five E’s
E----- Education
E----- Energy
E----- Employment
E----- Equity
E----- Enterprise

UET Taxila has taken a lead in starting the classes for

post graduate students about Hydel Power to implement the
most important “Es” of education in energy & for employment
on equity basics for enterprises.
 and Micro Hydel Plants

Oil, Gas and Coal

Renewable Energy resources

Suitable human resource development to

fulfill the energy growth requirements
 PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL
(SUMMARY)

Sr. River/ Tributary Power

No. (MW)
1. Indus River 35760
2. Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP 5558
Sub Total (1+2) 41318
3. Jhelum River 3143
4, Kunhar River 1250
5. Neelum River & its Tributaries 2459
6. Poonch River 397
Sub Total (3+4+5+6) 7249
7. Swat River & its Tributaries 2388
8. Chitral River & its Tributaries 2282
Sub Total (7+8) 4670
9. Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries 1290
TOTAL 54527 27
 PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL

Small
Swat & Chitral
Hydel
River
1290 MW
Jhelum 2.4
4528 MW
River 8.3
Basin
7249 MW
13.2 Indus River Basin
Jhelum River Basin
Swat & Chitral River
Small Hydel

4181676.2
MW

Indus River
Basin

28
29
 DIAMER BASHA DAM MULTI-PURPOSE PROJECT
(PROFILE OF PROJECT UNDER EXECUTION)
Project Location Chilas on Indus River 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam,
Height of Dam 272 m
Length of Dam 990 m
Gross Storage 8.1 Million-acre feet (MAF)
Live Storage 6.4MAF
Total Installed Capacity 4,500MW
Total Number of Units 12, each of 375 MW
Power Houses 2 (2,250 MW each)
Average Generation 18,000 Gwh/ annum
Construction Period 2009-2017
Present Status
•Feasibility Completed in 2007.
•Construction to start by mid 2009.
 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT
(Multi Purpose but Made Controversial)
1.NEED FOR KALABAGH DAM FOR IRRIGATION & ELECTRICTY

35 million acres land of Pakistan is irrigated

by canals and tube wells.
Canal with drawl increased from 67 to 105
MAF between the years 1947 and 1976 .
Storage depleted by 5MAF by 2006.
Situation of water shortage, threat of famine
Pakistan will have reached the stage of
“acute water shortage”, where people fight for
every drop of water.
 NATIONAL LOSS IF KALABAGH DAM IS NOT BUILT
National food needs would be jeopardized as of population growth.

28% loss of storage capacity of the on-line reservoirs due to sedimentation

would result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies.

For implementation of Water Apportionment Accord 1991, new storages

are essential. In its absence it would give rise in bitter inter-provincial

disputes,

The Annual energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20

million barrels of oil otherwise needed to produce thermal power.

Reservoir
Live storage 6.1 MAF
Retention level 915 ft SPD*
Minimum reservoir level 825 ft SPD*
Area at retention level 164 sq mile
Main Dam
Crest elevation 940 ft SPD*
Crest width 50 ft
Maximum height 260 ft
Length 4,375 ft
Installed Capacity 3600 MW
Estimated Cost about US$6.2 Billion
 APPREHENSION OF NWFP
1. flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera

®Backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 miles

downstream of Nowshera.
2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be
adversely affected creating water logging and salinity.
® Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are
970, 960 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to
the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for Kalabagh operation
pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause
water logging or salinity
4.Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely
affected.
®The invert levels of main drains of Mardan SCARP are higher
than reservoir elevation of 915 feet and the back water level in
Kabul River and Kalapani Khwar. These drains would keep on
functioning without any obstruction.
5.Fertile cultivable land would be submerged.
®Total cultivable affected land under the reservoir is only
35,000 acres,(24,500 acres in Punjab 3,000 acres in
NWFP).irrigated land would be only 3,000 acres (2,900 acres in
Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP).
6.Population Dislocation
® total population to be relocated is 120320 of which 78170
shall be from Punjab and 42150 from NWFP.
Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly
compensated
 APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

No surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir

® Annual average of 35 MAF has escaped below Kotri to Sea.
® Kalabagh reservoir will be filled up by only 6MAF, which will
gradually be released to the provinces.
® Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has studied and
confirmed that sufficient water is available for further storage.
2. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert.
® Dams don’t consume water! These only store water during
flood season and make it available on crop demand basis
® It estimated that after Kalabagh, the canal withdrawals for
Sindh would further increase by about 2.25 MAF.
3.Outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir
®The project design does not include any provision for
diverting water from reservoir.
® A telemetric system employing modern electronic technology
has recently been installed at each barrage and other flow
control points to monitor discharge in various canals
commands, on real time basis under the auspices of Indus
Water River System Authority (IRSA).
4.Cultivation in “Sailaba” areas would be effected
® Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming
after construction of Kalabagh Dam, without detriment to the
present agricultural practices, while large floods would be
effectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conducive to
installation of permanent tube wells to provide perennial
irrigation facility in rive rain areas. The local farmer can look
forward to having two crops annually instead of the present
one crop.
5.Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate.
® Data shows that sea water intrusion, seems to be at its
maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further
by Kalabagh Dam.
 BENEFITS & CHALLENGES OF HYDEL POWER
DEVELOPMENT
•Hydel Potential of 54,000MW to be harnessed to avoid load shedding

•To reduce dependency on oil import

•Hydel power a stimulator for the socio-economic growth

•Highly reliable, cheap operation and maintenance charges are very low

•Able to respond to rapidly changing loads without loss of efficiency

•The plants have a long life so highly economical

•No nuisance of smoke, exhaust gases, soot, as environment, friendly

•Multipurpose to give additional advantages of irrigation

•Optimal Utilization of Indus River for development of Hydropower Projects in

•Technology and Information Barriers & Risks of
Hydrology Geology etc
•Strategy for five E’s, Education, Energy,
Employment, Equity, Enterprise
•Attractive Policy & incentives required
•Upfront & Feed-in Tariff necessary
•Hydrological studies on all streams, to have
central data bank of hydrology
•Action Plan with targets for faithful
implementation
•Need to simplify and standardized Environment Assessment
•Institute for dissemination of technology, training and R&D
recommended
•Communication Infrastructure development up to the site is
required
•New approaches to financing, environmental and social issues,
barriers and their mitigations, to enhance public acceptance, and
to build consensus
•Need for technology transfer and & local technology
development
•Targeted and compatible human resource development in line
with energy generation profile
 Challenges in Hydropower Projects

More Capital intensive compared to thermal

Longer gestation and construction Period
More Construction Risks (inflation, cost overruns, delays, geological surprises,
floods, extreme weather, socio-political)
Higher Tariff in the initial years
No “off-the-shelf” or standard machines similar to thermal plants
Very site specific. Usually a number of options for developing each site
High percentage of civil works (70-75%) - difficult to estimate end costs
Operational Risks (hydrological risk, multiple uses, future
developments/diversions)
Environmental & resettlement issues
Institutional set up at provincial level

42
 Challenges in Hydropower Projects

Generally located in remote area, lack of basic infrastructure

(access roads, tunnels, electricity, telephone, colony, potable
water, manpower)
Dedicated and expensive delivery infrastructure required
Extra thermal capacity for backup in low water season
Hydel Generation varies with availability of water & head
Limited International experience in Private Hydropower Projects
Specific Tariff & Security Documents issues
Project Agreements (IA, PPA) are different and complex
Clearances from the Provinces, Water Use Agreement etc.

43