Chapter 3

Statistical Concept

Super A Team

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 Statistical Concept

Chapter 2 : Statistical Concept

PURPOSE:
Introduction of statistical concept

OBJECTIVE:
Introducing basic concept of the normal distribution

1. Normal Curve

2. Average, Variance, Standard Deviation

3. Process Capability(Z - Score)

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 Statistical Concept

Overall testing of certain population can be difficult in the view of timely and
economical point. Therefore, statistical analysis means that statistical parameter
is being used for figuring the overall character of certain population after you
find quality characteristics by taking sample which represents population characteristic
well instead of overall testing.

First of all, define the statistical parameter before six sigma is commented.

Sigma, Greek letter is described as standard deviation nearby average value in statistics.

Mean is the average of the distribution.

What is the probability ?

• If you flip a coin, the probability of heads and fails is each 50 to 50

• If you throw a die, the probability of each number is 1/6=16.67%

• The bating ratio of certain baseball player is 0.290, the probability of hit is 290
to 1000 opportunities.

Under the unpredictable circumstances randomly, the probability of any mishaps

can be predictable by its nature of probability.

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 Statistical Concept
What is Sigma with the probability ?
Sigma represents the data variation trend on a average centered.
For example, take commuting time to go to work.
Q : How long does it take to go to the office?
A : About 25 minutes, more or less.
Q : What does it mean, more or less?
A : About 5 minuets.
More specifically, then…
If we describe this statistically, we should say that it takes 25 minutes to the office, and there is a 5 minutes variation.
In case of having average and spread, what time do you have to start home not to be late for work, everyday until 8:00?
If we look into 5 minute variation(difference) a little more exactly...

Working 1 month Data Working 3 month Data

frequency x frequency
x
x
x x
x x x
x x x x
x x x x x x
x x x x x x x
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

☞ Suppose that we, everyday, go to work on time zone standing such a distribution as the above graph.

The normal curve stands a line connecting smoothly with the center of each bar typed
a bell stood from Histogram.
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 Statistical Concept

Looking into Sigma(frequently Z), we can predict very correctly.

Certain phenomenon has a normality in most cases.

You can indicate normal distribution statistically as a regular daily business.

Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution

• Mean = 25 • Mean = 0
• Standard Deviation = 5 68% • Standard Deviation = 1

95%

-∞ 99.7% +∞

Measurement(Time) : 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Z-Value σ : -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
In case of normal distribution, ‘Z’ value,
Z = (X- μ)/σ = (40 - 25) / 5 = 3
When USL(Upper Spec Limit) is 40 minutes,
Process capability at present is Z=3 or 3σ.
‘Z’ value is measurement unit of having how many standard deviations (σ) from the average
with the measured data.
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 Statistical Concept

50%
Start from home

16%

84%
98%
99.9% 99.99966%
-∞ +∞

Measurement : 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 47.5
Short measuring data - 1.5 - 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 6.0

* There is a shift around 1.5σfrom obtained data in short term to long term data.
Short term process capability equals long term process capability + 1.5σ.
How long does it take to get to the office not to be late for?
•The probability that you can get to the office in 30 minutes is 84%,
•The probability you can get to the office in 40 minutes is 99.9%,
•You have to start from home before 47.5 minutes not to be late for work as the probability
of 6σ or 99.99966%. That is, you must start 06:12 to get to the office until 07:00.

** What should we do about the current problem to accomplish 6σlevel as design standard is usually fixed status?
** In case of transaction, you should decide customer’s specification frequently through Benchmarking or customer’s
survey.

Understanding the process of 6 sigma, you can shift the average value and reduce variation
efficiently, if you use the statistical tool.
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 Statistical Concept

Normal Curve

Given that 100% of the

normal curve lies between
Connecting line Performance
, we may calculate that
with the center Limit
area which lies beyond
of the bar graph
the performance limit.
Doing so would reveal
the random chance
The center of bar probability of creating
a defect.

Area of Yield Probability

of a Defect

 Measuring Unit -¥ 

* USL (Upper Spec Limit)

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 Statistical Concept

Standard Deviation
Mean
 * Mean : Sample set or the
Inflection average value of the
Point population
The
Thesize
sizeor
oraastandard
standarddeviation
deviation
N

Average of  Xi
shows the distances between
shows the distances between Population is  =
i=1

N
the
theinflection
inflectionpoint
pointandandthe
themean.
mean. n

Sample average  Xi
We
We could say the process has33
could say the process has
is 
i=1
= X = n
sigma
sigmacapability,
capability,ifif33deviations
deviations
are
are fittable between thetarget
fittable between the target
and the specification limit. * Standard Deviation is the
and the specification limit. square root of the variance

1σ p(d) -Standard deviation of

population N
2
 ( Xi -  )
3σ =S=
i=1

-Sample’s standard deviation

TT USL
USL n
2
 ( Xi - X )
=s= i =1

n-1
3

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 Statistical Concept
** Area under the curve = 1, Target = 0 **
The Standard Normal Deviate
Let us suppose that we calculate the
standard normal deviate for a given
performance limit and discover that
Z=2.76. The question becomes, that
portion of the total area under the
normal curve lies beyond a Z value
of 2.76? Answering this question will
give us the probability of producing a
defect. Remember, the Z value is a
Total Area = 1
Performance The table lists
measure of process capability and is Limit Probability of Defect the tail area to
often referred to as the sigma of the Example = .00289
process, not to be confused with the the right of Z
process standard deviation. Z

Z Area Z Area Z Area Z Area

Z Area Z Area Z Area Z Area
0.00 .500000000 1.51 .065521615 3.02 .001263795 4.53 .000002999
0.00
0.05 .500000000
.480061306 1.51
1.56 .065521615
.059379869 3.02
3.07 .001263795
.001070234 4.53
4.58 .000002999
.000002369
0.05
0.10 .480061306
.460172290 1.56
1.61 .059379869
.053698886 3.07
3.12 .001070234
.000904215 4.58
4.63 .000002369
.000001867

T=0 Unit of measure 0.10

0.15
0.15
0.20
0.20
0.25
.460172290
.440382395
.440382395
.420740315
.420740315
.401293634
1.61
1.66
1.66
1.71
1.71
1.76
.053698886
.048457216
.048457216
.043632958
.043632958
.039203955
3.12
3.17
3.17
3.22
3.22
3.27
.000904215
.000762175
.000762175
.000640954
.000640954
.000537758
4.63
4.68
4.68
4.73
4.73
4.78
.000001867
.000001469
.000001469
.000001153
.000001153
.000000903
0.25
0.30 .401293634
.382088486 1.76
1.81 .039203955
.035147973 3.27
3.32 .000537758
.000450127 4.78
4.83 .000000903
.000000705
0.30
0.35 .382088486
.363169226 1.81
1.86 .035147973
.031442864 3.32
3.37 .000450127
.000375899 4.83
4.88 .000000705
.000000550
0.35
0.40 .363169226
.344578129 1.86
1.91 .031442864
.028066724 3.37
3.42 .000375899
.000313179 4.88
4.93 .000000550
.000000428
0.40
0.45 .344578129
.326355105 1.91
1.96 .028066724
.024998022 3.42
3.47 .000313179
.000260317 4.93
4.98 .000000428
.000000332
0.45
0.50 .326355105
.308537454 1.96
2.01 .024998022
.022215724 3.47
3.52 .000260317
.000215873 4.98
5.03 .000000332
.000000258
0.50
0.55 .308537454
.291159644 2.01
2.06 .022215724
.019699396 3.52
3.57 .000215873
.000178601 5.03
5.08 .000000258
.000000199
0.55
0.60 .291159644
.274253121 2.06
2.11 .019699396
.017429293 3.57
3.62 .000178601
.000147419 5.08
5.13 .000000199
.000000154
0.60
0.65 .274253121
.257846158 2.11
2.16 .017429293
.015386434 3.62
3.67 .000147419
.000121399 5.13
5.18 .000000154
.000000118
0.65
0.70 .257846158
.241963737 2.16
2.21 .015386434
.013552660 3.67
3.72 .000121399
.000099739 5.18
5.23 .000000118
.000000091
0.70
0.75 .241963737
.226627465 2.21
2.26 .013552660
.011910681 3.72
3.77 .000099739
.000081753 5.23
5.28 .000000091
.000000070
0.75
0.80 .226627465
.211855526 2.26
2.31 .011910681
.010444106 3.77
3.82 .000081753
.000066855 5.28
5.33 .000000070
.000000053

Z = 2.76
0.80
0.85
0.85
0.90
0.90
0.95
.211855526
.197662672
.197662672
.184060243
.184060243
.171056222
2.31
2.36
2.36
2.41
2.41
2.46
.010444106
.009137469
.009137469
.007976235
.007976235
.006946800
3.82
3.87
3.87
3.92
3.92
3.97
.000066855
.000054545
.000054545
.000044399
.000044399
.000036057
5.33
5.38
5.38
5.43
5.43
5.48
.000000053
.000000041
.000000041
.000000031
.000000031
.000000024
0.95
1.00 .171056222
.158655319 2.46
2.51 .006946800
.006036485 3.97
4.02 .000036057
.000029215 5.48
5.53 .000000024
.000000018
1.00
1.05 .158655319
.146859086 2.51
2.56 .006036485
.005233515 4.02
4.07 .000029215
.000023617 5.53
5.58 .000000018
.000000014
1.05
1.10 .146859086
.135666053 2.56
2.61 .005233515
.004527002 4.07
4.12 .000023617
.000019047 5.58
5.63 .000000014
.000000010
1.10
1.15 .135666053
.125071891 2.61
2.66 .004527002
.003906912 4.12
4.17 .000019047
.000015327 5.63
5.68 .000000010
.000000008
1.15
1.20
1.20
1.25
.125071891
.115069593
.115069593
.105649671
2.66
2.71
2.71
2.76
.003906912
.003364033
.003364033
.002889938
Table of Area Under
4.17
4.22
4.22
4.27
.000015327
.000012305
.000012305
.000009857
5.68
5.73
5.73
5.78
.000000008
.000000006
.000000006
.000000004
1.25
1.30
1.30
1.35
.105649671
.096800364
.096800364
.088507862
2.76
2.81
2.81
2.86
.002889938
.002476947
.002476947
.002118083 the Normal Curve
4.27
4.32
4.32
4.37
.000009857
.000007878
.000007878
.000006282
5.78
5.83
5.83
5.88
.000000004
.000000003
.000000003
.000000003
1.35
1.40 .088507862
.080756531 2.86
2.91 .002118083
.001807032 4.37
4.42 .000006282
.000004998 5.88
5.93 .000000003
.000000002
1.40
1.45 .080756531
.073529141 2.91
2.96 .001807032
.001538097 4.42
4.47 .000004998
.000003968 5.93
5.98 .000000002
.000000001
1.45
1.50 .073529141
.066807100 2.96
3.01 .001538097
.001306156 4.47
4.52 .000003968
.000003143 5.98
6.03 .000000001
.000000001
1.50 .066807100 3.01 .001306156 4.52 .000003143 6.03 .000000001

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 Statistical Concept
Using Z as a Measure of Capability

Z=6
1234 56
T USL
As variation decreases,
the probability of a defect
decreases for a given
+6 Capability specification limit, so
capability increases.
SL -
Z=

Z=3
1 2 3

T USL

+3 Capability

What should we do statistically to improve 6 level of process capability understanding the

issue of phenomenon analysis?
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 Statistical Conceptc

3) Understanding the concept of Cp

Design Tolerance USL - LSL

Cp = =
Product Capability 6σ
This is one that represents process distribution and range only regardless of
the location of mean.

M-x M = Nominal,
Cpk = (1 - K)Cp Here K = T = Tolerance
T/2
In case of process deviation, Process Capability Index

* How to increase Cp
1st, securing design margin to increase design tolerance in procedure of
product design.
2nd, there’s an Improvement activity of process design to reduce process dispersion.
We need two ways on the above for improvement action at the same time to optimize
process capability. That is, using concurrent engineering itself.

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 Statistical Concept

4) Process Capability Index formula

LSL X USL
Balanced
Both Spec. USL - LSL
CP =
6σ

X
One End Spec.
(Upper Spec Limit) USL - X
CP =
3σ
X

One End Spec.

(Lower Spec Limit)
X - LSL
CP =
3σ

T (Tolerance) CPK = ( 1 - k ) CP
Shift M-X
Both Spec.
M- X
k=
X M (Nominal) T/2
*In case of One End Specification regardless of specific limit, Cp equals Cpk. (Should be less than 25dB)
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