Earthquake Prediction Research

[EPR]
&
Disaster Management Strategy


- M.V.Ramanamurthy.
 What is going on now?

 What is needed?

 Why it is difficult?

 What is to be done?

 Recent predictions….
 PRINCIPLE METHODS IN EPR

1) Astronomical:

 Stellar constellation (planets & stars)

Moon, a Celestial body & Earth in straight line
Turning points of the moon’s relative motion to the earth

 Tidal Generation Forces Resonance [TGFR]

Data can be computed in advance

[much in advance]
2) Geomagnetic field change:

 Change in Geomagnetic field occurs 6-8 m before EQ.

- Continuous monitoring Geomagnetic field is required

 Audio, video & spectral disturbances just 10 to 20 hrs

before earthquake occurrence.
- Lattur & Andamans EQs: phone complaints increased.
- In Turkey, Japan & China: mobile phones
malfunctioned 50 to 100 minutes before EQ
- Telephone exchange data useful: in land, mobile.

[6-8 m]
3) Triangular network GPS stations:

 Area change ratio from Simultaneous & continuous

Geodetic measurement is converted to annual change
ratio [ppm].

 Early warning should be issued if the change [in XY, XZ

or YZ plane] is > 3ppm:

 I stage warning: 4 - 9 ppm

 II stage warning: 10 ppm
 III stage warning: >10 ppm

+ve sign indicates tension & - ve sign indicates compression

[3-6 m]
4) Differential SAR interferrometry:

 Differential Interferrometry
- Provides relative measurement, few cm or even less
movements in vertical direction.

 Small elevation changes caused by the buckling of the

earth’s surface prior to EQ can be measured.

 For monitoring [pre, co & post seismic] Earth’s Crust

– Dynamic Grid 4 satellites or more needed.

 NASA 7 d repeat L- band InSAR 4 satellites with 10 m

resolution, okay.

 Long-term measurement of interseismic strain

accumulation [to <1 mm/yr resolution]
[1-2 m]
5) Thermal InfraRed:
 A huge isolated temperature increasing area appears far
from Epicenter before EQ [2-6 deg C wrt peripherals].

 The thermal spectral resolution of 0.12-0.5 deg C is high

enough for EQ precursor detection.

 Increase of Brightness values Temperature & Temperature

Increasing Area [IBvT&TIA]: direct function of magnitude.

IBvT & TIA:

 1-3 L sq. km: Ms. 5.

 4-7 L sq. km: Ms > 6.
 > 7 L sq. km: Ms. 7.

[1d to2 m]
6) Animal abnormal Jump frequency [budgerigars]

 Budgerigars is a kind Parrot which is used for EQ

precursor detection.

 600-700 Vs >2000 jumps p/d

 No Information on: [direction,epicenter,Mag,t]

[7-13 d]
7) Gravity method:

 In deformation zone, on earth’s surface subjected to

displacement or movement of the earth’s gravity center.

 Given, at least 3 measuring points of earth’s gravity force,

triangulation procedure allows locating the epicenter

[5 – 6 d]
8) Crustal stress measurement:

 Before EQ crustal strain pulse signals.

 Relative change of crustal stress reflects seismicity,

 Hence crustal stress value is adopted instead of

absolute value.

 Measured by a crustal stress transducer, the strain in 3

directions on a level underground.

 Principal strain = (crustal stress – crustal strain * elastic

modulus )

 Its direction is towards epicenter.

[1 – 3 d]
9) Infrasound Waves: [ISW]:

 Abnormal Infrasonic wave signals has Ultra low frequency

(<1 Hz), longitudinal vibrations in the air, propagate very
long distances, without significant attenuation and distortion.

 ISWs released from fault fractures [rock destruction] prior

to large EQs at epicenter.

 Infrasonic sound measured in a star topology with

optimum array configuration using:
 low frequency microphone or by
 high frequency barometer] sensors.
A high, 1.250 mV [10Pa sonic P]
 EQ Ms >7-7.5
 EQs: Precursors 0.004-0.1 Hz.
[1-9 d]
10) Geoelectric pulses:
pulses

 Normal pulse is smoothly round curve, but before EQ:

abnormal.

 Amplitude of the abnormal signal determines

the magnitude.

 Procedures are same as of ISW

[1 – 9 d]
Chineese Predictions and Error Range:

Year T- Err Mag-Err Loc-Err

1996 Nil Nil Nil
1996 Nil Nil Nil
1996 39d,late Ms 0.1 Nil
1997 Nil-13hr Ms 0.2 Nil
2000 Nil Ms 0.1 Nil
2001 Nil Nil 0-0.1deg
2002 Nil Ms 0.3 Nil
2002 Nil Nil Nil
2003 2-4 d Ms 0.5 125km, Off
 Precursors Prediction 1
 Imminent EQs:
 Accomplishing envisaged endeavor:
 Integrated Cardinal Strategy.
 Comprehensive Data Integration, then Synthesize.
 Multi [disciplinary, component], Poly Dimensional
data encompassing multiple of multiplicative complexities,
 Use of multiplicative [additive] & divisive [subtractive]
methodologies etc.
 Comprehensive Integration to differentiate the multi data set
precursors reliable response [more information than can be
derived from single data set, techniques more supportive,
more confident]
 Integration of multiple data sets and composite digital image
generation.
 Computerized image processing involving data 2
and feature extraction techniques [geometrical, structural,
spectral, statistical] with 2 or more, Image data fusion, based
on [pixel, feature, decision] pixel], algorithm should be in line
with scientific doctrine, a continuous processes to refine and
improve the visual image exploitation by human image
interpreters.
 Decisions levels on fusion techniques are knowledge logical,
syntactical, contextual] and identity [statistical inferences] based
global seismic policy, Public education, seismic proof & ts safe
planning and constructions, public early warning reach out
communications, real time emergency services disaster relief and
management.
 Global Team Effort.
 Integrated Global Strategy.
 3
 India should participate and with innovative contribution [patent]
Shimla Summer [Seismic] Capital

 EQ [Physics & Engineering] = EQ Technology

 Study: Physics, Geophysics, Engineering Physics, Astrophysics,
Astro-mechanics, Remote Sensing..
 NASA:

 Global Earthquake Satellite System [GESS]

 France [Dec 2004]
 DEMETER [Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions
Transmitted from Earthquake Regions]
 Microsatellite series.
 The scientific purpose of the mission is to: 4
 Study the ionospheric disturbances related to seismic activity,
 Study the ionospheric disturbances related to human activity,
 Study the pre- and post-seismic effects in the ionosphere,
 Contribute to understand the mechanisms generating those
disturbances,
 Give global information on the Earth's electromagnetic
environment at the satellite altitude.
 Pre, Co & Post[seismic] study.
 Seismic Audit: construction, codes, education on precursors.
 Kangra EQ [1905] mag >8: one day before all Zoo animals
highly disturbed [recorded]
 Indian Plate is going below Erasian plate [raising: Himalayas
&Tibetan plateau]
 Modeling
 Data should speak not converse
 Mathematics
 Precursors Prediction
 Geology [process] holds the key
 Prediction by single method is not advisable
 Comprehensive integrated strategy.
 Mathematics does not obey nature's laws and
nature is not governed by mathematics
 SUMMATION

 The Principle Prediction Precursor Techniques consists of

a three-tire composite system: [In advance]

I. Long range [Macro] :

 Astronomical [years before]
 Electrical resistivity variations in seismically active areas
 Geomagnetic field change [6-8 months]
 GPS [3- 6 months]

II. Medium range [Meso]:

 Radar [1-2 months]
 Thermal IR [1 day–2 months]
 Electrical resistivity variations alerted and active [3 – 4 months]
 Tidal Generation Forces Resonance [15 days – 2 months]
III. Short range [Micro]:
 Budgerigars [a kind of parrot] Jump frequency [7-13 days]
 Gravity [5– 6 days]
 Infrasound [1-9 days]
 Geoelectrical pulse [2-9 days]
 Crustral strain [1-3 days]
 Geomagnetic field change affects telecommunications
[50-100 minutes to few hours and months]
 Cost Benefit Analysis.

 High Damage Vs low EPR R&D.

 R&D investment is very low.
 India too can afford: If there is [A Will, Capability, Dedication]
 4 years robust globally predictive R&D and implementation
$ 3.5L [Rs 1.5 Cr]
 Global Earthquake Satellite System [GESS]:
 20 years InSAR: 36hr Vs 35d $ 400-500 m
 5 yrs R&D, 15 yrs mission operation Rs. 1700 to 1800 Cr
Geosynchronous Satellite System (Rs. 90 Cr/yr)
 [at present not within the range, too expensive]
First satellite [5 yr R&D, 15 mission operation] $ 1-2 b.
10 Satellite constellation $ 8-10 b.
world wide Infrasound system: cheap. $ 1L, Rs. 50 L.
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty [CNTBT]:
60 infrasound stations net work, only maintenance.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
Initially, precursors identification routine Long and Medium
range predictive techniques, irrespective of areas are seismic or
aseismic, followed by Short range on alert in seismic or aseismic
narrowing down the imminent event.
None may follow logical sequence.

Likelihood that medium and short range could be in sequence,

long range may or may not be an indicator.

On alert Short-Range Tools must be in place and vigilant in the

long and/or medium ranges in seismic or aseismic-alerted in the
regions for continuous surveillance and monitoring.
 Our need of the hour is
“an automated on line surveillance system”
 To predict Imminent Earthquakes Precursors Detection

 At least 3 days before”, should possibly be accomplished.

 Constituting an “Earthquake Research Authority”
[ERA] act as a nodal agency to coordinate with recently
forming National Disaster Management Authority [NDMA].

 Researchers as and when they notice imminence of an event,

should report to the ERA only, who intern can deal with the
situation as deemed fit confidentially, including conveying
to the public at an appropriate time, so that panic situation
is avoided.
 The NDMA should ensure that State & District Level
[S,D[DMAs] be in place.
 Researchers as and when they identify long range indicators in an
area, it should be confidentially be informed to the ERA, to be
passed on to N,S[DMAs].
 When the medium range precursors are identified in the same
area, then alert should be passed on to all the three DMAs
through ERA to NDMA.
 Finally, when the event is identified in the short range in the same
area, then ERA to coordinate with all the three DMAs to get not
only be alerted, but also should be in a position to convey to the
area people concern about the imminent event, from time to time,
with the latest updates and to get prepared to face the situation
 Without any panic, a proper communication channel is to be
devised. Strict highest level of confidentiality should be maintained
by all concern, till the event prediction is fit for conveying to the
public.
 Medical Precurssors

 Abnormal cell growth precursor:

Positron Emission Tomography
– computerized tomography [PET-CT]

 Color shades: chemical levels of cell activity.

 Exact location of abnormal cell activity

[invisible on CT].
 A complimentary, not competing image modalities
 My Medical Forecast

 Signal Processing Doctrine principles are same in any scientific

pursuit, including interpretation:
 Cardiac [ECG] or
 EQs [seismogram]
 In fact signal processing technique is adopted in
medical applications:
 Automatic processing of the foetal MCG, Cardiac
diseases estimate …
 A precursor sensor [like a wristwatch] on human body to
monitor on selected intervals Vital organs functioning and
connected to a centralized computerized Database, gives
warning signals [replacing the existing periodical preventive
medical checkups, including scans, blood tests etc.]
SUGGESTIONS
 EPR should be taken up by Academic, Professional and
Research Institutes with collaborative projects with
centres where such know-how exists.
 Global coordinated team effort deeper insight with tenacity.
 A false alarm can cause panic, hence special
care is needed.
 Cardinal aim is narrowing down the event predictive
process by employing the Prediction Precursor
Techniques of a three-tire system
1) Macro 2) Meso 3) Micro levels
 With the help of Space and Ground-borne systems
 In developing on line automated surveillance and warning
systems, we need a continuous monitoring techno-
commercially viable system
 SUGGESTIONS

 Symptomatic approach Vs Scientific doctrine

 Supernatural science needs to be pursued, parallelly

 United Nations University’s Associated Institutions

 Research Centers of Global Scientific Excellence in various

countries

 Student participation in Masters and Doctoral programs

 UN, World Human Rights Commission and NGO’s contribution

 Any Questions….????

Contact address:
M.V.Ramanamurthy
68-1-3/1, Netaji Street, Ashok Nagar,
Kakinada - 533 003,
Dist. East Godavari, Andhra Pradesh. India.
Ph: 0884 - 2371649.
Email: rmy_pranav@sancharnet.in