INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P.

BIBANGCO

Theory of Probability
"The probable is what usually happens." - Aristotle
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Learning Objectives

In this chapter you will learn about:

 Probability Theory and Events

 Classical Probability
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Introduction to Probability
 Probability – numerical statement about the
likelihood that an event will occur
0  P(event)  1
 Head|Tossing of coin = 1/2
 Two|Rolling of die = 1/6

 Probability Experiment – chance process that leads

to well-defined outcome; tossing a coin, rolling a
die, and drawing a card
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Introduction to Probability (cont.)

 Outcome – the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment (random)
 Single Trial – performing an experiment once
 Sample Space – the set of all outcomes of a
probability experiment
Experiment Sample Space
Toss one coin H,T
Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6
Toss two coin HH, HT, TH, TT
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Events
 Event – consists of one or more outcomes of the
sample space
 Simple Event – one outcome
 Draw an ace of heart
 Compound Event – consists of two or more
outcomes
 Draw a red card
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Events (cont.)
 Mutually Exclusive Events – no common outcome
 Draw a diamond and a heart
 Collectively Exhaustive Events – at least one
outcome
 Draw a number card and a face card
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Example of Events?
 Draw a  & a   Mutually Exclusive .
 Draw a face card & a  Collectively Exhaustive
number card …
 Draw an ace of   Simple
 Draw a  & a non-  Collectively Exhaustive
 Draw a 5 of   Simple
 Draw a red card and a   Compound
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Die (Dice) Problem

 A single die is rolled. List the outcome in each
event:
 Getting an odd number
 1,3, and 5
 Getting a number greater than four
 5 and 6
 Getting less than one
 No outcomes
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Classical Probability
 Definition: uses sample spaces to determine the
numerical probability that an event will occur.

0  P(event)  1

FORMULA
P(E) = # of outcomes/sample space
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Problem Set
 Two coins are tossed; find the probabilty that both
coins land heads up
 Sample Space = HH, TH, HT, and TT
 P(E) = # of outcomes/sample space
 P(HH) = 1/4 or 25% probability
 A die is tossed; find the probability of each event:
 Getting a two
 Getting an even number
 Getting a number less than 5
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Jellybeans Problem
 A dish contains 8 red jellybean, 5 yellow jellybean,
3 black jellybean, and 4 pink jellybean : if randomly
selected, find the probability that it is
 A red jellybean
 A black or pink jellybean
 Not yellow
 An orange jellybean
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Probability Rules
Rule 1: The probability of any event will always be a
number from zero to one.
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Probability Rules (cont.)

Rule 2: When an event cannot occur, the probability
will be zero.
Rule 3: When an even is certain to occur, the
probability is one.
Rule 4: The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes
in the sample space is 1. (Two Coins Problem)
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Probability Rules (cont.)

Rule 5: The probability that an event will not occur is
equal to 1 minus the probability that the event will
occur. (complement)
P(Ē) = 1 – P(E)

Problem: If the chance of rain is 0.60 (60%), find the

probability that it won't rain.
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Probability Rules (cont.)

Rule 6: When two events are mutually exclusive;

P(E1 or E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)

Problem1: When a die is rolled, find the probability

of getting a 2 or a 3.
Problem2: A card is selected, find the probability that
the card is an ace or a king.
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Probability Rules (cont.)

 Rule 7: If E1 and E2 are two events that are not
mutually exclusive, then

P(E1 or E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) – P(E1 and E2)

P(E1 and E2) = P(E1) x P(E2)

Problem: A card is selected, find the probability

that it is a 6 or a diamond.
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Bayesian Theorem
 Definition: used to incorporate additional
information as it is made available and help create
revised or posterior probabilities.
Prior
Probabilities

Bayes’ Posterior
Process Probabilities

New
Information
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Bayesian Theorem
 Definition: used to incorporate additional
information as it is made available and help create
revised or posterior probabilities.

P(E|N) = P(E and N) / P(N)

 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Conditional Probability (cont.)

 Example1: A die is rolled; find the probability of
getting a 4 if it is known that an even number
occurred when the die was rolled.
 Sample Space = 2, 4, and 6
 P(4|even) = 1/3
 Example2: Two dice are rolled. Find the probability
of getting a sum of 3 if it is known that the sum of
the spots on the dice was less than six.
 P(sum of 3|sum < 6) = 2/10 = 1/5
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

 D’TOUR
 A letter is randomly selected from the word
‘‘computer.’’ Find the probability that the letter is
1) An ‘‘o’’ or an ‘‘m’’ 2) An ‘‘x’’ 3) A vowel
 Given: 3 red, 5 blue, and 2 black pens; if randomly
selected, what is the chance that the pen is
4) A blue or a red pen 5) A red or a black pen
 6) Three dice are rolled. Find the probability of
getting three twos if it is known that the sum of the
spots of the three dice was six.
 INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

END
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