Uncharted Territory:

What’s New for 2012 Redistricting

Presented by: David Wasserman

Cook Political Report
February 2011
Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com
Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict
Five Redistricting Frontiers
 New Census Data
 New Technology
 New Reforms
 New GOP Authority
 New Democratic Oversight
Five Redistricting Frontiers
 New Census Data
 New Technology
 New Reforms
 New GOP Authority
 New Democratic Oversight
Better Know a District
(Or: Apportionment in the Age of Colbert)
But Wait, There’s New Data
 Explosion in Hispanic/Latino Population,
especially in TX, CA, FL
 Total Population (TPOP) vs. Citizen
Voting Age Population (CVAP)
 New: American Community Survey (ACS)
1, 3 & 5 Year Census Estimates
 Which Data to Use?
Texas: Send in the Lawyers…
Five Redistricting Frontiers
 New Census Data
 New Technology
 New Reforms
 New GOP Authority
 New Democratic Oversight
There’s (Not Just One) App for That
 Proliferation of Do-It-Yourself Redistricting
 But Will It Change the Outcome?

 One Thing’s for Sure: More Public Scrutiny

Five Redistricting Frontiers
 New Census Data
 New Technology
 New Reforms
 New GOP Authority
 New Democratic Oversight
 California: Props 11 & 20
 New 14-Member
Citizens’ Commission
 5 D, 5 R, 4 Neither
 9/14 Required to Pass
 What’s it add up to?
53 Very Scared
Incumbents
Florida: “Fair Districts” Amendments
 Districts should not “favor
or disfavor” incumbents
or political parties and
should conform to existing
county, city boundaries
 Brown (D) & Diaz-Balart
(R) odd bedfellows suit
 Gov. Scott (R) withdrawal
of preclearance request
Five Redistricting Frontiers
 New Census Data
 New Technology
 New Reforms
 New GOP Authority
 New Democratic Oversight
 Let the Games Begin
 Republicans hold authority to redraw 196
congressional districts, Democrats just 49
 GOP not likely to build significantly on their
House majority, but will shore up 2010 gains
 Best GOP opportunities: NC, GA, PA
 Best Dem opportunities: IL, FL, TX
 North Carolina: 7-6 D to 10-3 R?

 Four Dems at Risk: Brad Miller, Larry Kissell,

Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler
Illinois: 11-8 R to 12-6 D?

 Nine GOP at Risk:

Bobby Schilling,
Aaron Schock, Joe
Walsh, Judy
Biggert, Randy
Hultgren, Adam
Kinzinger, Tim
Johnson, Bob Dold,
Don Manzullo
Five Redistricting Frontiers
 New Census Data
 New Technology
 New Reforms
 New GOP Authority
 New Democratic Oversight
First Time a Democratic Justice Dept.
Will Oversee Redistricting

 1982: Reagan
 1992: Bush
 2002: Bush
 2012: Obama
How Aggressive Will the DOJ Be?

 And how many states will go another route?

 The House

 Bottom Line: GOP nets 0-5 seats,

but leaves fewer targets for Dems