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Fundamentals of Forecasting

Greg Carbin
Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Centers for Environmental Prediction


Storm Prediction Center

Norman, Oklahoma

Understanding Violent Weather-National Press Foundation April 20, 2009


Violent Weather Takes Many Forms

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Every day is different. Why?

Not to scale!

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The atmospheric river surrounds us!

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Issues with predictability. Oh no!
Wide variations
in forecast state!

Change

Ed Lorenz

Small change
in initial
conditions…

Time
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Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
Used with permission:
http://www.travisjmorgan.com/blog/category/art/

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So, is all hope lost oh Swami?

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No. But there will be a quiz!

                                                                                     

                                                                                                                          
           
                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                       
Mass continuity will read:
                                                                      

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Advances in computing = advances in forecasting

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Forecast improvements

Current 3 day forecast accuracy


similar to 1-2 day forecast in ’85.

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Forecast funnel and journalism’s inverted pyramid
Forecasting Journalism
It’s all about time/space scales It’s about information content

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Forecast funnel concept

Large scale weather systems:


1
D
a
Air masses, highs, lows 0
y 0
s 0
0
Cold fronts, rain bands,
H
o
lake-effect snow 1
0
u 0
r s
s Thunderstorm
M
cells 1
i 0
n s
u Tor?
t
e
s

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Large scale weather systems

Understanding Violent Weather-National Press Foundation April 20, 2009


Large scale weather systems

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Fronts and smaller scales

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Fronts and smaller scales

Low

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Environmental assessment at even smaller scales
Lift ?
Instability &
Shear ?

Moisture ?

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Environmental assessment - Why shear ?

Thunderstorms in the presence of


vertical speed or directional shear
will likely acquire greater organization.

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Putting it all together

Lift
e a r
Sh

ili &
ab re
ty
st tu
In oi s
M

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Storm scale assessment now complete…

Understanding Violent Weather-National Press Foundation April 20, 2009


Forecast funnel and products from the SPC/NWS

D Thunderstorm, Fire Weather,


a
y Severe Weather OUTLOOKS
s

Detailed Mesoscale
H
o
DISCUSSIONS SPC
u
r Products
s SVR/TOR
M
WATCHES
i
n
u WARN
t Local NWS
e Products
s

Understanding Violent Weather-National Press Foundation April 20, 2009


Storm Prediction Center
Mission Statement

SPC exists solely to protect life and


property of the American people
through the issuance of timely,
accurate watch and forecast products
dealing with tornadoes and other
mesoscale hazardous weather.

Understanding Violent Weather-National Press Foundation April 20, 2009


SPC severe weather OUTLOOKS for this event…
Four days away: hail, wind, tor Three days away: hail, wind, tor

Two days away: hail, wind, tor Today – tornado forecast

www.spc.noaa.gov
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION for this event…

www.spc.noaa.gov

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SPC TORNADO WATCHES for this event…

www.spc.noaa.gov

www.spc.noaa.gov

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Storm reports for this event…
Monday, April 13th, 2009

www.spc.noaa.gov
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Time for questions and comments.
Norman, Oklahoma
National Weather Center

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Orchard, Iowa – June 2008

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Tennessee and Alabama – February 2008

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Extremes exist all around at all times of year.

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Leighton, Alabama – May 9, 2008

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Roanoke, Illinois – July 2004

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Roanoke, Illinois – July 2004

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Parson’s Manufacturing Plant

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Parkersburg, Iowa – May 25, 2008

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Parkersburg, Iowa – May 25, 2008

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Parkersburg, Iowa – May 25, 2008

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Thank You!

Gregory.Carbin@noaa.gov

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