The Science Behind Atlantic Hurricanes

and Seasonal Hurricane Predictions

By

Dr. Gerry Bell

Head of NOAA’s Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks

Climate Prediction Center
Camp Springs, MD

public affairs: carmeyia.gillis@noaa.gov

(301) 763-8000 x 7163
 Background
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.
However, most of the activity occurs during August-October. This
is called the peak of the hurricane season.

Fortunately, this is the time when the climate control is very strong
and…also very predictable.

So, when we make seasonal hurricane forecasts, they are primarily

reflecting the expected activity during August-October.

Main tropical storm and

hurricane formation region
 Outline

1. Interpreting NHC hurricane forecasts

2. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks
3. Recipe for hurricane formation
4. Measuring seasonal activity
5. Recipe for an active hurricane season
6. Conditions during 2005
7. Climate patterns controlling hurricane extremes
8. Summary
 Interpretation of the Prediction Cone

It is incorrect to show only the black line as the forecast because

it is NOT the forecast. The white cone is the forecast. The
hurricane is forecast to be somewhere in the white cone area.
 NOAA’s Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks
•Began in August 1998
•Issued in mid-to-late May and early August
•Seasonal Forecasts are highly confident

2 August 2005
Outlook Observed
Chance Above Normal 95-100%
Tropical Storms 18-21 22
Hurricanes 9-11 12
Major Hurricanes 5-7 6

BUT, Less confidence with seasonal landfalling forecasts. A lot of

work still needs to be done in this area.
 Sea Surface Temperatures (F) Departures from Normal (F)

81
84 3
86 2
 ..

Effects of Vertical WindShear (V z) onTropical Cyclones

UPPER-LEVELWINDS

EYE

Hurricane Research Division

Neal Dorst/Stan Goldenberg
AOML/NOAA
HRD
LOWER-LEVELWINDS

WEAK SHEAR= FAVORABLE STRONG SHEAR= UNFAVORABLE

highclouds

lowclouds
Measuring Seasonal Activity
 ACE Index
•Classifying Hurricane Seasons is Challenging
# TS, #H, # MH, # landfalling storms, etc.

•NOAA’s ACE index accounts for the combined intensity,

numbers, and duration of named storms.

•The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index:

An Energy index defined as sum of squares of 6-hourly
maximum sustained wind speed for all systems while at least
tropical storm strength.

•ACE index is an excellent measure of seasonal activity,

and is also highly predictable
 2005
•Alternating 20-30 year periods of active / inactive seasons
•Nine of last 11 years have been active compared to only
3 active years during 1970-1994 (25 years).
•We are now 11 years into an active hurricane era.
 Recipe for an Active Hurricane Season?

Active/ inactive seasons and decades result from a

coherent set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
They are not random events.

The set of conditions that determine whether or not

hurricanes will form is strongly controlled by two
dominant climate phenomena.
 Conditions Associated with
Active Hurricane Seasons
August-October
Higher Pressure Aloft
Makes easterly winds over Caribbean instead of westerlies

Low Vertical Wind Shear

Warmer SSTs
Lower Surface Pressure
Favorable mid
level jet stream
Weaker easterly trade
Winds in lower atmosphere

Tropical storms and hurricanes form as disturbances move

westward from Africa into the low-shear, warm water
environment (red area) of the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions During 2005
Courtesy of Unisys Weather
 Conditions During Record Activity: 15 June-31 July
Vertical Wind Shear
Departures from Normal (Shaded)

Extremely low vertical

wind shear typical of
September

Main Development
Region

Air Pressure Departures from Normal (35,000 ft)

Symmetry between
Northern and Southern
hemispheres indicates
link to suppressed
convection near date line
 Conditions During 15 August-30 September

Vertical Wind Shear Departures from Normal (Shaded)

Air Pressure at 35,000 feet (Contours)

H Very low wind shear.

L
H Ridge remains over SE
U.S.

Major hurricanes form

in Gulf of Mexico where
wind shear is almost
zero.
 Landfalling Hurricanes
2 to 3 times more U.S. landfalling hurricanes during active
seasons than inactive seasons.
 Tracks of systems that became major hurricanes
after forming in Tropical Atlantic or Caribbean Sea
Active 24-Year Period Inactive 24-Year Period
1955-1970, 1995-2002 1971-1994

MDR

67 Major Hurricanes 27 Major Hurricanes

The U.S. averages 2-3 hurricane strikes in above-normal

seasons, compared to just one in below-normal seasons.
 U.S. Landfalling Named Storms
2002-2005

30

20
Number

Total
Gulf Coast
10 East Coast

0
 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes
2002-2005
Number 15

10 Total
Gulf Coast
5 East Coast

The ongoing active hurricane era means high levels of

tropical storm and hurricane landfalls for many years to come.

Tropical climate patterns are similar to those seen during the

1950s-1960s. They are very different than during 1970-1994 when
fewer hurricanes formed, and even fewer affected the United
States.
 Coastal Population

• The Bureau of Census considers 87 million people to be

Atlantic and Gulf coast residents. That's nearly 30
percent of the US population threatened by Atlantic
hurricane season.
Florida Coastal Population
MH Katrina- Hit as Cat. 4 (145 mph winds)
August 29th 2005

Eye is 30 miles across

Hurricane winds extend 125 miles from center
New Orleans and Biloxi both in Eye Wall
Biloxi

New Orleans
Hurricanes are Not Just a Coastal Event

Leading cause of death is from inland flooding.

Climate Patterns Controlling Hurricane Activity
 Hurricane seasons are largely controlled by
recurring rainfall patterns along the equator, which
are linked to two dominant climate phenomena:

1. The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (El Niño and La

Niña)
2. 20-30 year (multi-decadal) cycles in monsoonal rains
over western Africa and the Amazon Basin. These
monsoons influence the entire set of conditions that
control seasonal hurricane activity. They are the
dominant cause of the alternating 20-30 year periods of
active/ inactive hurricane seasons. (Bell and Chelliah,
In Press Journal of Climate)
•NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks result from
analysis and prediction of these two climate
phenomena.
 El Niño/ La Niña Cycle

Pacific Ocean Temperatures, Rainfall, Winds at 35,000 feet

El Nino: Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes

L H
High
Shear Warm
Warm&&Wet
Wet
L H

La Niña: More Atlantic Hurricanes

H Weaker Tropical
Easterly Jet L
Low Shear
H Cool
Cooland
and
Stronger Easterly DryL
Dry
Trades
 Tropical 20-30 Year Signal
Active Atlantic Hurricane Phase
Surface Temperatures
Warm
Warm
warm
warm
Warm
Warm Warm
Warm
ccoool
ol cool
cool

Precipitation

Wette
Wette
DDrie rr Drie
rierr Drie
rr
Monsoonal rainfall
fluctuations with 20-30 year cycles
Observed 20-30 Year Cycles
 Winds and Air Pressure at 35,000 feet
Difference Between 1995-2003 and 1971-1994

Observed Patterns Linked to 20-30 year cycles

H H

H H

Differences between active and inactive periods is caused by

anomalous tropical convection with 20-30 year cycles
(Bell and Chelliah, 2005, J. Climate)
 Multi-Decadal Signal in
Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperatures

Tropical Atlantic Temperatures (Red)

Warmer Atlantic waters since 1995 are very favorable

for hurricane formation. Associated with weaker
easterly trade winds.
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Departures (oC)

1870 1900 1930 1970 1995

Strong multi-decadal fluctuations in Atlantic temperatures

dating back to the 1870’s.
 Summary
1. We are in an active hurricane era that began in 1995.
This is due to naturally occurring 20-30 year cycles in
tropical monsoon rainfall.

It is NOT greenhouse warming

2. A major hurricane (cat. 3-4-5) does major damage
regardless of strength. Therefore, a weakening
hurricane should not be conveyed to the public as
having significantly weaker impacts. This happened
during hurricane Katrina.
 Summary: cont.

2. We can expect high levels of hurricanes and landfalling

hurricanes for many years to come (10-20 years). We have been
saying this since 1998.

3. This is quite different than was seen during 1970-1994, when

only 3 in 25 seasons were above normal and significantly fewer
hurricanes struck the United States.

4. Tropical climate patterns controlling seasonal hurricane activity

are very predictable. Therefore, seasonal activity is predictable.

5. Hurricane preparedness and hurricane “smarts” are the most

important things we can do as a society to minimize impacts if a
tropical storm or hurricane strikes.