UK ENERGY SCENARIOS

crossing the fossil and nuclear bridge to

a safe, sustainable, economically viable energy future

Preliminary scenarios
for discussion and development only

Mark Barrett
Mark.Barrett@ucl.ac.uk
Complex Built Environment Systems
University College London

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 Introduction 1
This outline of UK energy and environment scenarios has been developed with the intention of identifying the
main problems the UK will face in meeting future energy needs and environmental objectives, and to
describe possible policy options for resolving these problems. The approach here is to assume policy
options and estimate the energy, emission and microeconomic impacts of these policy options. It is not
claimed that the scenarios are optimum in that more robust and cost-effective solutions may be found.
The aim is to illustrate a development path that is incremental, flexible, and secure, with no undue
reliance on fuels or technologies having substantial risks.

The aims are to identify energy and environment strategies that:

‡ enhance the security of UK energy services by reducing imported fuel dependence and technology risk
‡ meet energy needs with safe, sustainable energy systems
‡ limit environmental impact, with an emphasis here on:
± the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide,
± atmospheric pollutants; sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and carbon monoxide
‡ are technically feasible and economically viable
‡ give a practical development path leading from finite fuels to renewable energy

A broader aim is to consider temporal and spatial aspects of energy demand and supply, within the UK and at
the international scale, to ensure technical feasibility and take account of the international context

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 Introduction 2

The scenarios are designed to be practical, feasible, but are not necessarily µbest.¶ It is not possible to
objectively define the best scenario because:
‡ although there is some agreement about goals concerning the environment, consumption, technology
risk and irreversibility, market cost, subsidies, etc., the weights attached to these goals are subjective
and differ between individuals and groups
‡ there are aspects which it will never be possible to accurately quantify, such as: what is the probability of
an accident or terrorist attack on current or future nuclear facilities, and what would be its impact on the
UK, even if radioactive release were negligible?
‡ the future evolution of technologies in the long term is uncertain; half a century ago, the UK had
negligible nuclear power or natural gas supply.

Some observations:
‡ Developments of social structure, attitudes, demand, supply, technology, etc. are all, to some extent,
determined by national policies.
‡ Planning UK energy futures can not be done in isolation from Europe and the rest of the world, because
of global energy resources, energy trade, and international politics.
‡ As yet there are no supply options which score highest on all criteria and therefore these must balanced
according to present knowledge. The further into the future, the greater the uncertainties with respect to
demand, technology development, and the international context. As solar electricity (e.g. photovoltaic),
electricity storage and long distance transmission become cheaper, then there may be agreement that
other options are inferior and the µenergy problem¶ will perhaps be µsolved.¶.

No consideration is made here of how policy options would be implemented with statutory, fiscal or other
instruments. A presumption is made that these would be developed and applied as necessary to secure
the UK¶s future energy services and economy, and to protect the environment.

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 Policy options

The policy aims are to be met using five classes of option:

‡ 
 
 : demand, and choice and use of technologies
± demand substitution, less air travel
± modal shift from car and truck to bus and rail, lower motorway speeds, building temperatures
± smaller cars
‡  
± insulation, ventilation control, recycling, efficient appliances...
‡  


 
± cogeneration...
‡ 

± to low/zero emission renewable and other sources
‡  
 
  
± flue gas desulphurisation, catalytic converters, particulate traps...

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 Policy options

In the scenarios, technologies are excluded according to criteria of irreversibility, exposure to risk of large scale
hazards, the lack of clear market costs, or if they do not work. Accordingly:
‡ new nuclear capacity is excluded because of irreversibility, lack of market cost because of insurance, and risk of
large scale hazard.
‡ carbon sequestration through pumping CO2 underground is not deployed because it an irreversible technique
that increases primary CO2 emissions, and the risks of accidental release in the long term are impossible to
quantify reliably. It also may be argued that sequestration will diminish efforts towards energy efficiency and
renewables.
‡ fusion is excluded because it does not work and would produce radioactive wastes.

The challenge is to construct scenarios that do not use these options.

Currently, hydrogen is not included in any scenario. This is primarily because of the low overall efficiency of
producing hydrogen from electricity or gas and then converting it into motive power or heat: it wastes more
primary fossil or renewable energy than using electricity as a vector. In the stationary sectors, it is better to use
electricity, renewable and fossil fuels directly. In surface transport vehicles, an increasing fraction of demand
can be met with electricity in hybrid electric/fossil fuelled vehicles. Hydrogen as a fuel for aircraft is a distant
prospect. If the production and utilisation efficiency of hydrogen improve, or other difficulties, such as electric
vehicle refuelling are insurmountable, then hydrogen would be reviewed.

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 Scenarios

With these classes of options and exceptions, the aim is to show that commonly agreed social, environmental
and economic objectives can be achieved with low risk.

Five scenarios combining the five classes of policy option in different ways have been simulated. Proceeding
from scenario 1 to 5 results in decreased emissions and use of technologies or fuels that have
irreversible impacts.

   : base scenario

 ! ": medium levels of technical change
# 
 : behavioural change only
$ %
& : high levels of technical change
" %
: technical and behavioural change

The scenarios presented here are preliminary and for discussion because:
‡ recent historic data were not available at the time of scenario development
‡ many technical and economic aspects of the scenarios need a thorough review

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 The energy system: demand and supply options
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 Integrated planning
Energy planning should be integrated across all segments of demand and supply. If this is not done, the
system may be technically dysfunctional or economically suboptimal. Energy supply requirements are
dependent on the sizes and variations in demands, and this depends on future social patterns and
demand management. For example:
‡ In 2040, what will electricity demand be at 4 am? If it is small, how will it affect the economics of supply
options with large inflexible units, such as nuclear power?
‡ The output from CHP plants depends on how much heat they provide, so the contribution of micro-CHP
in houses to electricity supply depends on the levels of insulation in dwellings.
‡ Solar collection systems produce most energy at noon, and in the summer. The greater the capacity of
these systems, the greater the need for flexible back-up supplies and storage for when solar input is
low.
‡ The scope for electric vehicles depends on demand details such as average trip length. Electric vehicles
will add to electricity demand, but they reduce the need for scarce liquid fuels and add to electricity
storage capacity which aids renewable integration.
‡ Electricity supply systems with a large renewable component require flexible demand management,
storage, electricity trade and back-up generation; large coal or nuclear stations do not fit well into such
systems because their output cannot easily be varied over short time periods.
‡ The amount of liquid biofuels that might available for air transport depends on how much biomass can
be supplied, and demands on it for other uses, such as road transport.
‡ Is it better to burn biomass in CHP plants and produce electricity for electric vehicles, or inefficiently
convert it to biofuels for use in conventional engines?

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 Models used for constructing scenarios

Some description and sample outputs are presented for the following models:

‡ mm
: Society, Energy and Environment Scenario model used for basic national energy scenarios
across all sectors

‡ m
 : Electricity system model used to study detailed operation of electricity system

‡ m% Energy Space Time model used to illustrate issues concerning time varying demands and renewable
sources at geographically distant locations

‡   Energy trade model used to study potential for international exchanges of energy to reduce
costs and facilitate the integration of renewable energy

More on the models may be found at:

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Energy/Energy.htm

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 Technical basis: SEEScen: Society, Energy, Environment Scenario model


  
  



 


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 calculates energy flows in 
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and the microeconomic costs of


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conversion technologies and
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 is a national energy model
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‡ Simulates system over years, or
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the four classes of policy option 


‡ Optimisation under development
     
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 Energy services and demand drivers
Demands for energy services are determined by human :


 

needs, these include
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The drivers are assumed to be the same in all scenarios.

 


 

The above drivers are simply accounted for in the model, 

but others are not, for example: :
‡ Population ageing, which will result in increases and
decreases of different demands


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More on consumption at: 

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 Energy demand: food
Food consumption increases with population. Therefore:
‡ More biowaste for energy supply
‡ Less land for energy crops, depending on import fraction
‡ Land and energy use for food depends on food trade and factors such as the fraction of meat in the diet

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 Future demand: general considerations
Predicting the activities that drive the demands for energy is fundamentally important, but uncertain, not least
because activities are partially subject to policy.

‡ Some demands may stabilise or decrease, for example:

± commuting travel as the population ages and telecommunications develop
± space heating as maximum comfort temperature levels are achieved
‡ Demands may increase because of the extension of current activities:
± heating might extend to conservatories, patios, swimming pools
± air conditioning may become more widespread
± cars might become heavier and more powerful
± as the population enjoys more wealth and a longer retirement, more leisure travel might ensue
‡ Or because new activities are invented, these being difficult to predict:
± new ways of using energy might arise; witness home computers, cinemas, mass air travel in the past; the
future we may see space tourism

Basic activity levels are assumed to be the same in all scenarios, although in reality they are scenario dependent.
For example, many activities are influenced by scenario dependent fuel prices - the purchase and use of cars,
air travel, home heating.

Furthermore, energy consumption in the services sector and industrial sectors are themselves dependent on basic
energy service demands. For example: energy consumption for administering public transport or aviation is
dependent on the demands for those services; the energy consumed in the iron and steel or vehicle
manufacturing industry depends on how many cars are made, which is scenario dependent; the energy
consumption of manufacturing industry depends on how much loft insulation there is houses. The effects of
energy demands on economic structure and its energy consumption are not considered here. (This is rarely
analysed in energy scenarios because the effects of these structural changes may be relatively small; and it is
difficult to calculate them.)
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 Future demand: activity projections
In these scenarios, the activity growth in all sectors is assumed to follow from population, household and wealth
drivers. The activity projections are shown in the chart. The outstanding growth is in international aviation, a
service the UK mainly exports.

  

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 Domestic sector
The main options exercised:

‡ Clothing, heating system control and thermostat setting

‡ High levels of insulation and ventilation control
‡ Efficient lights and appliances
‡ Solar water heating, micro gas CHP and electric heat pumps are the main supply options
‡ Zoned heating and clothing to reduce average house temperature

Note that solar electricity production (e.g photovoltaic) is included under central supply, even though much of it
would be installed at end users¶ premises.

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 Comfort temperature, clothing and activity
Appropriate clothing reduces energy demand and emissions. A slight improvement in clothing could reduce
building temperatures. A degree reduction in average building temperature could reduce space heating
needs by about 10%.
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 Domestic sector: house heat loss factors
Implementation of space heat demand management (insulation, ventilation control) depends on housing needs
and stock types, replacement rates, and applicability of technologies. Insulation of the building envelope
and ventilation control can reduce house heat losses to minimal levels.

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 Domestic sector: useful energy services per household
‡ Space heating reduced, but not comfort
‡ Other demands eventually grow because of basic drivers
‡ Water heating becomes a large fraction of total, demand management requires further analysis

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 Domestic sector: electricity use
Electricity demand is reduced because of more efficient appliances, including heat pumps for space heating.

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 End use sectors: energy delivered to services sector
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 Transport

Options exercised:
‡ Demand management, especially in aviation sector
‡ Reduction in car power and top speed
‡ Increase in vehicle efficiency
± light, low drag body
± improved motor efficiency
‡ Implentation of speed limits
‡ Shift to modes that use less energy per passenger or freight carried:
± passengers from car to bus and train
± freight from truck to train and ship
‡ Increased load factor in the aviation sector
‡ Some penetration of vehicles using alternative fuels:
± electricity for car and vans
± biofuels principally for longer haul trucks and aircraft

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 Passenger transport: carbon emission by purpose

Commuting and travel in work account for

40-50% of emissions

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 Passenger transport use by mode trip length
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 Passenger transport: carbon emission by car performance
Car carbon emissions are strongly related to top speed, acceleration and weight. Most cars
sold can exceed the maximum legal speed limit by a large margin. Switching to small cars
would reduce car carbon emissions by about 40% in ten years. Switching to micro cars and
the best liquid fuelled cars would reduce emissions by about 90% in the longer term.
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Cars that are big CO2 emitters are most dangerous because of their weight, and because they
are usually driven faster. In a collision between a small and a large car, the occupants of the small
car are much more likely to be injured or killed. The most benign road users (small cars, cyclists,
pedestrians) are penalised by the least benign.

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 Transport: road speed and PM emission
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 Transport: road speeds
A large fraction (40-50%) of vehicles break the speed limits on all road types. This law-
breaking increases carbon and other emissions, and death and injury due to accident.
Enforcing the existing limits, and reducing them, would significantly reduce emissions and
injury.

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 Transport: aviation

Aviation is a special sector because:

‡ There is no near physical limit to growth as for land transport
‡ It has the most rapid growth in demand of any major sector
‡ Its emissions have particular impacts because of altitude
‡ Aircraft are already relatively energy efficient

For these reasons, aviation is projected to become a dominant cause of global warming over the next few
decades. The UK is a large exporter of aviation services, and fuelling this export will become perhaps the
major problem in UK energy policy. Currently there is no proven alternative to liquid fuels for aircraft.
Most aviation is international with special legal provisions, and so aviation (and shipping) can not be analysed in
isolation from other countries.

Aviation is discussed in detail in reports that may be downloaded at:

http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Transport/Air/Aviation.htm

m
   
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 Aviation: control measures

Aviation emission control measures can be classed under demand management,

technology and operations.

Engine Freight
Airframe
Demand
Technology management Business
Aircraft size CONTROL
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MEASURES
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Speed Operation
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Altitude
Load factor Route length

m
   
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 Aviation: effects of technical and operational measures
Behavioural measures (other than reducing basic demand) such as increasing aircraft load
factor and reducing cruising speed are as important as technological improvement. These
measures can be implemented faster than technological change, as the average aircraft
operating life is about 30 years.

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Aviation emissions can only be stabilised if all technical and operational measures are
driven to the maximum, and the demand growth rate is cut by half. To reduce aviation
emissions by 0% would require further demand reduction.

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Demand depends on complex of factors: demographics, wealth, land use patterns, employment, leisure travel.
National surface demand is limited by time and space, but aviation is not so limited by these factors.

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The scope for load distance reduction through logistics and local production is not assessed. International freight
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A shift from car to fuel efficient bus and train for commuting and longer journeys is assumed. The scope for
modal shift from air to surface transport is very limited without the development of alternative long distance
transport technologies.
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‡ Load factors of vehicles, especially aircraft, assumed to increase through logistical change.
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 Further analysis: electric vehicles
Electric (EV) or hybrid electric/liquid fuelled (HELV) vehicles are a key option for the future
because liquid (and gaseous) fossil fuels emit carbon, will become more scarce and
expensive and are technically difficult to replace in transport, especially in aircraft.
Electric vehicles such as trams or trolley-buses draw energy whenever required but they are
restricted to routes with power provided by rails or overhead wires. Presently there are
no economic and practical means for providing power in a more flexible way to cars,
consequently electric cars have to store energy in batteries. The performance in terms of
the range and speed of EVs and HELVs is improving steadily such that EVs can meet
large fraction of typical car duties; the range of many current electric cars is 100-200
miles. A major difficulty with EVs is recharging them. At present, car mounted photovoltaic
collectors are too expensive and would provide inadequate energy, particularly in winter,
although they may eventually provide some of the energy required.
Because of these problems it may be envisaged that HELVs will first supplant liquid fuelled
vehicles, with an increasing fraction of electric fuelling as technologies improve.

Hydrogen is much discussed as a transport fuel, but the overall efficiency from renewable
electricity to motive power via hydrogen is perhaps 50%, whereas via a battery it might be
70%. For this reason, it is not currently included as an option. If the efficiency difference
were narrowed, and the refuelling and range problems of EVs are too constraining, then
hydrogen should be considered further.

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 Transport: passenger vehicle distance
A large reduction in road traffic reduces congestion which gives benefits of less energy, pollution and travel time.

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Reductions in fuel use because of technical improvement, better load factors, lower speeds, and less
congestion.

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Future passenger energy use dominated by international air travel.

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Freight energy use is dominated by trucks. The potential for a further shift to rail needs investigation.

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Declining efficiencies are where the cogeneration heat fraction falls, and the electricity fraction increases

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Reduction in fossil fuel use through efficiency and shift to alternatives.

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 Energy supply: electricity

Options exercised:

‡ Phase out of nuclear and coal generation

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‡ Extensive installation of CHP, mainly gas, in all sectors
‡ Utilisation of biomass waste and biomass crops
‡ Large scale introduction of renewable electricity
± wind, solar, tidal, wave

Electricity supply in the scenarios requires more analysis of demand and supply technicalities and economics,
particularly:
‡ future technology costs, particularly of solar-electric systems such as photovoltaic
‡ demand characteristics including load management and storage
‡ renewable supply mix and integration

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 Energy supply: electricity : generating capacity
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capacity would perhaps be retained for back-up and security.

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Relative generation costs depend critically on future fuel prices, but in these scenarios the larger demand
scenarios have higher electricity costs.

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 Energy: primary supply
‡ Total primary energy consumption falls, and then increases
‡ Fraction of renewable energy increases, then falls

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Nuclear fuel imports decline; gas and oil imports increase and stabilise; some electricity export.

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 Energy flow charts

The flow charts show basic flows in 1990 and 2050, and an animation of 1990-2050. The central part of the
charts illustrate the relative magnitude of the energy flows through the UK energy system. The top section
shows carbon dioxide emissions at each stage. The bottom section shows energy wasted and discharged
to the environment.
Please note that the scale of these charts varies.

Observations:
‡ Energy services:
± space heating decreases
± other demands increase, especially motive power and transport
‡ Fuel supply
± increase in efficiency (CHP)
± increase in renewable heating, biomass and electricity
± imports of gas and oil are required
± electricity is exported

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 Environment
Often, the energy and environment debate concerns itself with routine, relatively easily quantified emissions such
as CO2, and ignores the many other impacts of energy demand and supply, even though they may as
important economically or socially, if only in the shorter term.

There are particular problems concerning the environmental impacts of energy.

‡ The definition and precision of calculation of many impacts are poor for technical reasons.
‡ Future impacts depend on developments in technology, legislation and other controls.
‡ Some impacts are routine, such as CO2 emission; others, such as a nuclear accident, are not routine and
have probabilities of occurrence and consequences that are impossible to calculate with any certainty.
‡ Some impacts are physical; others, such as the threat of attack on a nuclear facility, are not physical but can
still have impacts.
‡ Some impacts are not directly associated with technical energy processes. For example, in the low emission
scenarios, road traffic injuries and deaths would be reduced through measures such as less car travel and
enforced speed limits. There would be further social benefits such as more equal access to transport, and
disbenefits such as less car driving.
‡ The impacts are different in kind: gaseous, liquid, solid, radioactive, biological, visual, land take, etc. There is
no objective method to weigh these against each other except through political processes.

m m
 presently calculates:

‡ Atmospheric emissions of CO2, and of SO2, NOx, PM and CO although these are imprecise
‡ Some other impacts such as the number of aerogenerators and the fraction of land area used for biomass
production

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 Environment: carbon dioxide
Note the historical emission inaccuracy because of data. The TechBeh scenario has a decline in CO2 emission
of about 80%, and then an increase, primarily because of aviation growth.

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There is an eventual upturn in emissions as assumed demand growth overtakes technology and behavioural
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 Economics

In mm
, the direct annual costs of fuel, and the annuitised costs of conversion technologies and demand
management are calculated. The model does not account for anything unrelated to fuels or technologies,
including:
‡ indirect costs and benefits, such as the economic savings following a shift away from cars leading to reduced
health damage because of accidents, toxic air pollution, and the value of reduced travel time
‡ macroeconomic issues relating to the energy trade imbalance or exposure to fluctuating international fuel
prices

Such economic impacts of energy scenarios can be of greater importance than direct costs. For example, the
value of traffic related health injury and time lost in congestion is generally much greater than the costs of
controlling noxious emissions from vehicles.

International fuel prices are critical to the relative cost effectiveness of measures. It is probable that the UK would
follow a µlow energy emission¶ path in parallel with other countries, at least in Europe. In such an international
scenario, finite fossil and nuclear fuel prices will be lower than in a higher demand scenario. Thus the
implementation of options affects the cost-effectiveness of those options - a circularity:
± the more renewable energy deployed, the cheaper the fossil fuels leading to an increase in the relative
cost of renewables
± the more the consumption of fossil and nuclear fuels, the higher the prices for those, leading to an
increase in the relative cost of fossil and nuclear energy

m
   
 m
 International context Ô
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Fuel availability and price will depend on
B
global and regional demand levels. 1(***

mm
was used to model the five 1****

scenarios for the four largest +(*** P
energy consumers near the UK: +****
France, Germany, Spain and Italy.
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Because the measures exercised are the ;
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same, the primary energy
consumption of these countries )(***

varies in similar ways in the )****
scenarios, although there are (***
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demand might vary according to
policies, and it has consequences
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 m
 Economics: fuel pricesã
BB

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International fuel prices are critical inputs 3:

_5o Þ
to the economic analysis of
scenarios. 25
ß_5oÞ
Fundamentally, costs in the long term are ß_ßà

determined by the remaining 2:
amounts and marginal extraction ß_
Þ 

Ë J
costs of the reserves of finite fossil 15 ß_o
Þ
and nuclear fuels. Prices depend on
costs and future demand-supply 1: ß_ v

markets.
ß_5
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It may be argued that if the UK pursues a 5
µlow finite energy¶ path then it is likely ß_á1
that other countries will be doing the
same, at least within Europe.
:
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199:

1995

2:::

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2:3:

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The top chart shows a µhigh demand¶ â â

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â
price projection, the bottom a µlow 16
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demand¶ projection. 14 ß_5oÞ
These merely illustrate possible
differences in trends. It may that the 12 ß_ßà

relative prices of gas, oil and coal
will change.
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1995

2:::

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2:3:

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2:4:

2:45

2:5:
_5o
m
   
 m
 Economics: TechBeh scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management
The annuitised costs of each fuel, technology and demand management option are calculated for each of the
end use and supply sectors. In the low demand scenario, the fraction of total cost due to converters
(boilers, power stations, etc.) and demand management increases as compared to fuels.

T 

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m
   
 m
 Economics: Base scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management
In higher energy supply scenarios, the fraction of costs due to fuel increases because renewable energy and
CHP constitute smaller fractions. One implication of this, in comparison with a lower demand scenario, is
that economic security is degraded because of the sensitivity to prices and availability of imported, globally
traded fuels.

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m
   
 m
 Economics: total cost by scenario
The more secure, lower impact systems for providing energy services may not have higher costs than high
demand and emission scenarios because more cost effective demand management is taken up. Also, fossil
fuel prices will be lower because European/global demand will be lower (the UK will not, or cannot act
alone).

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m
   
 m
 Economics: energy trade costs
The cost of increased imports of fossil fuels is partially balanced by electricity exports.
Note that the costs of imports are positive and exports, negative.

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m
   
 m
 Economics: scenarios: energy trade total cost balance
The energy trade cost deficit increases in higher energy consumption scenarios because imports are greater and
fuel prices are higher

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 m
 Observations on scenarios: national energy
The scenarios are preliminary and could be improved with more recent data and sectoral analysis. However,
the relative magnitudes of energy flows, emissions and costs are illustrative of the main problems, and
possible solutions.

The scenarios show that:

‡ Large reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions are possible without utilising irreversible
technologies with potential large scale risks - nuclear power and carbon sequestration.
‡ Transport fuel supply is a more difficult problem than fuelling electricity supply or the stationary sectors
which have many potential fuel sources. Transport is the most difficult sector to manage, because:
± demand management options are limited as compared to the stationary sector
± of growth, especially in aviation
± limited efficiency improvement potential as efficiency is already a strong driver in freight transport
and aviation
± lack of alternatives to liquid fuels, especially for aviation
‡ The potential for the direct use of electricity as a transport fuel rather than the inefficient production and
use of secondary fuels such as biofuels or hydrogen needs more exploration

In all scenarios, under the assumption of continued growth in energy service demand, emissions increase in
the longer term as the effects of known technologies are absorbed. Behavioural options are important,
especially if nascent technologies do not become technically and economically feasible. Therefore
analysis and speculation on the following might be useful:
± possible future socioeconomic changes and impact on energy service demands
± long term technology development

m
   
 m
 Observations on scenarios: economics and environment


 

‡ The total cost of energy services may be less in low emission scenarios because of the cost effectiveness
of demand management and efficiency as compared to supply. This assumes that in the future, as now,
the UK energy system is not optimal in economic terms because of market imperfections which lead to
inadequate investment in demand management and energy efficiency.
‡ The more the application of demand management and renewable energy, the less is the UK exposed to
international fuel price fluctuations.
‡ Demand management and renewables reduce the UK balance of payments deficit for energy trade.

  
 when presumed growth overtakes implementation of current technology
options. In the long term, therefore demand management, service and renewable energy technologies will
require further implementation. A particular need is to find substitutes for liquid fuelled aircraft for long
distance transport.

m
   
 m
 Observations on scenarios: national and international

The TechBeh scenario has a  

; should

‡ less be generated?
‡ the surplus be used to substitute for fossil resources, e.g.
± to make transport fuels even if the process is wasteful?
± for heating and other uses not requiring electricity?
‡ the surplus be exported as trade for other fuels?

It is not possible to develop a robust and economic UK energy strategy for the long term without
consideration of international developments, for a number of reasons:
‡ the UK has transmission linkage with other countries; this is especially important for electricity if
renewable sources in the UK meet a large fraction of total demand
‡ the availability of fuels for import depends on global demand
‡ there are international arrangements that constrain UK policy in terms of demand management and
supply, for example, treaties concerning international aviation and shipping

This leads to system dynamics and the international aspects of energy scenarios.

m
   
 m
 Energy systems aspects: space and time

mm
 has a main focus on annual flows, although it can simulate seasonal and hourly flows. Other
models are required to analyse issues arising with short term variations in demand and supply, and
with the spatial location of demands and supplies.

Questions arising:
‡ Can the demands be met hour by hour using the range of supplies?
‡ What spatial issues might arise?

Some aspects of this are explored and illustrated with these models:

‡ m
 : Electricity system model for temporal analysis

‡ m% Energy Space Time model

‡   Energy trade model

m
   
 m
 Electricity system: detailed considerations
Electricity demand and supply have to be continuously balanced as there is no storage in the transmission
network, unlike gas. This balancing can be achieved by controlling demand and supply, and by
introducing storage on the system (pumped storage) or near the point of use: heat and electricity storage
(hot water tanks, storage heaters, vehicle batteries) can be used to store surplus renewable energy when
it is available, so that the energy can later be used when needed.

The EleServe Electricity Services model has these components:




‡ disaggregated into segments across sectors and end uses
‡ each segment with
± a temporal profile
± load management characteristic



‡ each renewable source with own temporal profile
‡ heat related generation with its own temporal profile
‡ optional thermal generators characterised by energy costs at full and part load, and for starting up
- 
 
‡ load management by moving demands if cost reduced
‡ optional units brought on line to minimise diurnal costs

The following graphs demonstrates the role that load management can play in matching variable demands to
electricity supplied by variable renewable and CHP or cogeneration sources.

m
   
 m
 Electricity : diurnal operation without load management

m
   
 m
 Electricity : animated diurnal operation with load management

m
   
 m
 Electricity : diurnal operation with load management
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Me
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 Electricity : commentary

The electricity demand-supply simulation :

‡ shows how load management can alter the pattern of demand to better match CHP and renewable
electricity generation. The residual demand to be met by generators utilising fuels such as biomass or fossil
fuels, that can alter their output, is less variable and the peak is smaller.
‡ demonstrates the importance of demand patterns and technologies in strategies for integrating variable
electricity sources
‡ indicates that large fractions of variable sources can be accommodated without substantial back-up
capacity
‡ end use or other local storage could play a significant role, especially if electric vehicles are widely used as
in some of the scenarios

Further work is required on:

‡ data defining current and future demand technologies
‡ detailed electricity demand forecasts
‡ the feasibility of integrated control of demand and supply technologies, including the accuracy of prediction
of hourly demands and renewable supplies over time periods of a several hours or days
‡ more refined optimisation

m
   
 m
 Energy systems in space and time

For temporally variable demand and energy sources, what is the best balance between :
‡ local supply and long distance transmission?
‡ demand management, variable supply, optional or back up generation and system or local
storage?

These questions can be asked over different time scales (hour by hour, by day of week, seasonal)
and spatial scales (community, national, international).

The EST and InterTrade models have been developed to illustrate the issues and indicate possible
solutions for integrating spatially separate energy demands and sources, each with different
temporal characteristics.

m
   
 m
 UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST

m
   
 m
 UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST : animated

m
   
 m
 A wider view of the longer term future

Wealthy countries like the UK can reduce their energy demands and emissions with cost-effective
measures implemented in isolation from other counties, and in so doing improve their security.
However, at some point it is more practical and cost-effective to consider how the UK can best
solve energy and environment problems in concert with other countries.
As global fossil consumption declines because of availability, cost and the need to control climate
change, then energy systems will need to be reinforced, extended and integrated over larger
spatial scales.
This would be a continuation of the historical development of energy supply that has seen the
geographical extension and integration of systems from local through to national and
international systems.
The development and operation of these extended systems will have to be more sophisticated than
currently. Presently, the bulk of variable demands in rich countries is met with reserves of fossil
and nuclear fuels, the output of which can be changed by µturning a tap.¶ When renewable
energy constitutes a large fraction of supply, the matching of demands and supplies is a more
complex problem both for planning and constructing a larger scale system, and in operating it.

m
   
 m
 International electricity : demand
üø.÷
Further connecting the UK system to
ü÷.÷
other countries increases the ûø.÷
benefits of diversity, at the cost of û÷.÷  

U T

transmission.
úø.÷
E

 EU

EN

ú÷.÷
E

F IN

The first chart shows the pattern of F

ùø.÷
E


monthly demands for different EI

IT

European countries.
ù÷.÷ 
U X

N ET

ø.÷ 
E

÷.÷
Ja n Feb ýa r þp r ýa y Ju n Ju l
þu g ÿe p ct Nov
e c
The second chart shows the normalised
diurnal demand patterns for some
.
countries. Note that these are all for
µlocal¶ time; time zone differences .
would shift the curves and make the . 
differences larger.  UT

.   E

 E

.
EU

EN

E

.9 F
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IT


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.
.
 7 8 9      7 8 9 
m
   
 m
 International electricity: supply; monthly hydro output
Hydro will remain the dominant renewable in Europe for some time. It has a marked seasonality in output as
shown in the chart; note that hydro output can vary significantly from year to year. Hydro embodies
some energy storage and can be used to balance demand and supply; to a degree determined by
system design and other factors such as environment.

mli"   utput



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 m
 Electricity trade

‡ An extensive continental
grid already exists
‡ The diversity of demand
and supply variations
increases across
geographical regions
‡ What is the best balance
between local and remote
supply?

InterEnergy model
‡ Trade of energy over links
of finite capacity
‡ Time varying demands and
supply
‡ Minimise avoidable
marginal cost
‡ Marginal cost curves for
supply generated by model
such as EleServe

m
   
 m
 InterEnergy ± animated trade

Animation shows
programme seeking
minimum cost for one
period (hour)

m
   
 m
 Europe and western Asia ± large point sources
The environmental impact of energy is a global issue: what is the best strategy for reducing
emissions within a larger region?

m
   
 m
 World
There are global patterns in demands and renewable supplies:
‡ Regular diurnal and seasonal variations in demands, some climate dependent
‡ Regular diurnal and seasonal incomes of solar energy
‡ Predictable tidal energy income

m
   
 m
 World: a global electricity transmission grid?
‡ Should transmission be global to achieve an optimum balance between supply, transmission and storage?
‡ Which investments are most cost efficient in reducing GHG emission? Should the UK invest in photovoltaic
systems in Africa, rather than the UK? This could be done through the Clean Development Mechanism

m
   
 m
 Security: preliminary generalities 1

Energy security can be defined as the maintenance of safe, economic energy services for social wellbeing and
economic development, without excessive environmental degradation.

A 
 of importance for energy services can be constructed:

‡  services which it is immediately dangerous to interrupt
± food supply
± domestic space heating, lighting
± emergency services; health, fire, police
‡  importance. Provision of social services and short-lived essential commodities
‡  importance. Long-lived and inessential commodities

Part of security planning is for these energy services to degrade gracefully to the core.

The various energy supply sources and technologies pose different kinds of insecurity:
‡ renewable sources are, to a degree, variable and/or unpredictable, except for biomass
‡ finite fossil and nuclear fuels suffer volatile increases in prices and ultimate unavailability
‡ some technologies present potentially large risks or irreversibility

m
   
 m
 Security : preliminary generalities 2

m



‡ / 
! 
 The main security is to reduce dependence on the
imports of gas, oil and nuclear fuels and electricity through demand management and the development of
renewable energy.

‡   

 This mainly causes difficulty with electricity, gas, and
renewables except for biomass. Demand management reduces the seasonal variation in demand and
thence the supply capacity problem for finite fuels and electricity. Storage and geographical extension of the
system alleviates the problem.

m
 
 

‡ Demand management reduces the costs of supply.
± The gross quantities of fuel imports are less, and therefore the marginal and average prices
± The reduced variations in demand bring reduced peak demands needs and therefore lower capacity
costs and utilisation of the marginal high cost supplies
‡ The greater the fraction of renewable supply, the less the impact of imported fossil or nuclear fuel price rise
‡ A diverse mix of safe supplies each with small unit size will reduce the risks of a generic technology failure

m
 
   
0. In the UK, the main risk is nuclear power.

m
 
!
  0. In the UK, nuclear power and carbon sequestration


 
All energy sources and technologies have impacts, but the main concern here are long
term, effectively irreversible, regional and global impacts. The greater the use of demand management and
renewable energy, the less fossil and nuclear, the less such large impacts.
m
   
 m
 Electricity security
  will reduce generation and peak capacity requirements as it :
‡ reduces total demand
‡ reduces the seasonal variation in demand, and thence maximum capacity requirements

It has been illustrated how    might contribute to the matching of demand with variable supply.
This can be further extended with storage, control and interruptible demand.

During the transition to CHP and renewable electricity, supply security measures could be exercised:
‡    
. Currently in the UK, there are these capacities:
± Coal 19 GW large domestic coal reserve
± Oil 4.5 GW oil held in strategic reserves
± Dual fired 5. GW
± Gas 25 GW gas availability depends on other gas demands
‡ Utilisation, if necessary of some 
   . Currently in excess of 7 GW, but these plants
are less flexible because they are tied to end use production, services and emergency back-up
‡ The building of new flexible plant such as gas turbines if large stations are not suitable



 with other countries can be used for balancing. There are geographical differences in the hourly
variations of demands and renewable supply because of time zones, weather, etc. The strengthening of the
link between France and the UK, and creation of links with other countries would enhance this option.

m
   
 m
 Gas and oil security

The measures to improve oil and gas security are basically the same, diversify fuel sources and
store fuels:

‡ Diversify supply sources

± Extension of the gas transmission system
± Develop LNG imports

‡ Increase storage
± Enlarge long term gas storage in depleted gas fields
± Increase strategic 90 day oil reserve as required by IEA

m
   
 m