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methods

Community and Regional Planning

CRP 410 Planning Methods

Professor Kurt Paulsen

November, 2005

Demography

• The scientific study of human populations,

primarily with respect to their size, structure and

development

Demography and planning

• 53 P.S. § 10301.2

agency shall make careful…analyses of housing,

demographic, and economic characteristics and

trends.”

In re Petition of Dolington Land Group and Toll Brothers

from the Decision of the ZHB of Upper Makefield Twp.,

839 A.2d 1021(Pa.2003)

• “The periodic analytic process employed…is, in

our view, an entirely appropriate method for a

municipality or multimunicipal jointure to meet its

obligation to provide for the proportion of regional

need for higher density, multi-family housing

fairly ascribed to it. Implemented conscientiously

and in good faith, this method will ensure that

land is available for development of an

appropriate variety of housing types on a

continuous basis.”

Demography

• To demographers, you only do a few interesting

things in your life (undergo a “demographic

event”

– Be born

– Give birth

– Move

– (Attract a migrant)

– Die

Demography

• This gives rise to the 3 major components of

demographic analysis:

– Fertility

– Mortality

– Migration

Demography

• Each of these components can be modeled as

complexly or simply as needed.

– Simple e.g.: Calculate “crude” rates

– Complex: disaggregated regression model of migration

decisions by age, race, sex, education, and economic

structure

– Complex: simulation models

Demography - components

• What influences fertility?

– Age

– Education

– Economic status

– Rates and timing of marriage/cohabitation

– Religion

– …and many others

Demography - components

• What influences mortality?

– Age

– Gender

– Income/Socio-economic status

– Genetics

– Behavior

– Access to health care…..

– ….and of course many more

Demography - components

• What influences migration/immigration?

– Age

– Economic structure/opportunities

– Public policies

– Quality of life, cost of living

– Climate

– ….and many more of course!

Demography - components

• You probably noticed that age plays a significant role in

all three components. Demography frequently employs

life-cylcle/temporal models. People’s probability of giving

birth, dying, migrating, etc. exhibit clear age effects.

all those with a similar age into a “cohort.”

Demography

• Three basic types of demographic analysis used

by planners

– Descriptive – tools, data, and methods to describe the

population of an area

– Trends analysis – look at how demographic data has

changed over time

– Projections – estimates of future population and

population structure

Descriptive Demography

• You can access/acquire demographic data for a

place from a number of sources:

– PASDC

• http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu

– Census

• http://www.census.gov

– Health Data:

• Pennsylvania: Bureau of Health Statistics and Research

• http://www.dsf.health.state.pa.us/health/CWP/view.asp?A=175&Q

• National Vital Statistics System:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss.htm

Descriptive Demography

• After acquiring data for a place, you can calculate

all of the descriptive statistics we learned earlier

in the course, and use the statistics to tell a story

about a place

Descriptive demography

• Demographic-specific methods

– Age-Sex pyramids

– Dependency ratio = children + seniors divided by total

working age population

• Or: non-working population divided by working population

• Some researchers specify under 15 + over 65 as

“dependent”

Age-sex pyramids

• Age-sex pyramids are graphic representations of

the age and sex distribution of a population. The

show the percentage of a population for each sex

by age category/cohort. Typically they present

data in 5 year bins, although this is dependent on

your data.

Bin data – a note

• A lot of demographic data we have is not

individual data, but rather counts of the number

of people who fall into a certain category.

– Travel time (25 to 29 minutes)

– Age (birth to 4, 5 to 9 …)

when used on bin data

Bin data – descriptive statistics

area based on knowing the number of people who

fall into each category of time intervals. How do

we do it?

• To perform calculations, we have to make

assumptions about the distribution of data within

the bin.

Consider this travel time bin: 339 people in Richland Twp,

Bucks Co., travel between 25 and 29 minutes to work

339 people?

25 27 29

OR?

67.8 people

25 26 27 28 29

Bin data

to overall average and standard deviation

calculations?

• Recall the formula for an average:

x=

n

Option 1 = 339*27 =9153

Option 2 = 67.8*25+67.8*26+…67.8*29

= 9153

Bin data

• So, in this example, these two options are

equivalent in their effects on the overall mean….

• But what about the standard deviation?

• Ok, but what if, instead the real data looked like

this:

Non-symmetric distribution within a bin

300 people

39 people

25 25.8 27 28.1 29

25.8*300+28.1*39=8835.9

Bin data

• What are we left with? We have to make

assumptions about the distribution of data within

bins, but we have no a priori way to determining

which is “best”, and with the understanding that

our output is dependent on our assumptions.

Bin data strategy

• State your assumptions clearly

• Easiest solution is to assume all members of the

bin share the mid-point value.

• If exact results are important enough, calculate at

least 3 ways and present all 3 results (sensitivity

analysis)

• You could chose all lower values and then all

upper values for upper and lower “bounds”

• Don’t believe standard deviation calculations

from bin data!

Back to age-sex pyramids

• Age-sex pyramids provide a visual representation

of population structure. Consider the following

three national level pyramids from the U.S.,

Bangladesh and Germany.

Age-Sex Pyramids

• You can also produce pyramids for population

forecasts, to show the underlying demographic

structure.

Constructing an Age-Sex Pyramid

on class server

• Step 1. Download age-sex data from the Census

Bureau website or other data server.

(factfinder.census.gov)

– Find variable P12 (Census 2000): Sex by age (total

population)

– If you wanted to, you could find sex by age for different

racial/ethnic groups

Age-Sex Pyramids

• Step 2. Unzip downloaded data, and transpose

data into columns.

• Step 3. Clean data such that it is 5-year age bins

with consistent labels.

• Step 4. Multiply Males by –1 (so on left side of

pyramid)

• Paste in format appropriate to Chart Wizard

• Make stacked Bar Chart. (second option on bar

chart chart wizard)

Special Excel Trick

• Reformat Axis to eliminate negative numbers.

Double click on bottom axis, chose “number” tab,

chose custom, in box type:

0;0

Click Ok.

Population Example

• Calculate Male/Female ratio, overall and for each

age category. Graph this to show general trends.

• Calculate overall dependency ratio. (For example

= 0.532) This means there are 53 dependents for

every working-aged person.

MALE/FEMALE RATIO BY AGE, LOWER MACUNGIE

TOWNSHIP, LEHIGH COUNTY PA, 2000

1.2

1.1

1

Male/Female Ratio

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to 85

14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 plus

Age Cateogy

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.1

1

0

to

4

5

to

9

10

to

14

15

to

17

18

to

19

20

ye

a rs

21

ye

a rs

22

to

24

25

to

29

30

to

34

35

to

39

40

to

44

45

to

49

50

to

54

55

to

59

60

to

61

62

to

64

65

to

66

67

to

69

MALE/FEMALE RATIO, UNITED STATES, 2000 CENSUS

70

to

74

75

to

79

80

to

85 84

an

d

ov

er

Demography – trend analysis

• Often, an analysis and visual presentations of the

demographic trends in a community can tell a

story and highlight significant planning issues.

• Recommended:

– Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information

– The Planner’s Use of Information

Trends – quantitative analysis

• One of the more common simple quantitative

analyses of past trends is to calculate “rates of

change” (works not just in demography)

• Rate formula:

X t +1 − X t

r=

Xt

Calculating Rates

• The population of a census tract in Montgomery

County grew from:

– 1990 population: 2371

– 2000 population: 3353

3353 − 2371

r= = 0.4142

2371

We read this as saying the population growth rate

from 1990 to 2000 was 41.42 percent

Growth rates example

• If the growth rate from 1990 to 2000 was 41.42

percent, what was the average annual growth

rate?

that would be….WRONG – but a common mistake

• Why? COMPOUNDING!!!

Rates of growth (and decline)

• UGH!! Well, we might as well learn them now,

they’ll come in handy later in Cost Benefit

Analysis

Decline Rates.doc”

1

This is the

So…. Vn t

formula

g = −1

V0

• So what is the average annual growth rate of

population for this Montgomery Census Tract?

1

3353 10

g = −1 = 0.03526

2371

We read this as a 3.526 percent average annual growth rate.

Growth rates

• Calculated growth rates can be used for:

– Estimating population between two censuses

– Projecting population based on constant growth rate

assumption

Final word on growth rates

• If r is the rate of population growth, then a

population will double in

ln(2)/r years!

Population Projections and Forecasts

Census Bureau:

– Estimate: indirect measurement of population for the

past, between Censuses, based on births, deaths and

migration figures.

• Released for July 1st of previous year

• Projections: estimates of population for future

years.

Projections and forecasts

• How “accurate” do I have to be?

– What is the cost of being wrong? Is the “error

function” symmetric?

– What is the cost of acquiring additional information and

analysis to produce a more accurate projection?

• All estimates, projections and forecasts are

subject to potential error. Open Excel sheet:

“forecasting.xls”

Population Projections

• Two basic types

– Top-down

• Applying constant rates

• Curve-fitting/extrapolation techniques

– Bottom-up

• Cohort-component model

• Distributed housing unit method

covered in this class, but of use in many applications

Top down projections

• Constant rate projections:

– 1. Calculate average annual growth rate, using most

recent data. (e.g. 1990-2000).

– 2. Apply growth rate to future years.

Top-down projections

• Constant increment projections:

– 1. Calculate total number of people added per year.

– 2. Apply constant increment to future years.

Curve-fitting/extrapolation

• Idea is relatively straightforward:

– 1.Plot the data

• In this case, population from previous time periods

– 2. Fit a curve to the data

• Made easier in Excel with “insert trendline”

• Problem: “insert trendline” has limited options

– 3. Derive the equation of the fitted curve

– 4. Use the equation to calculate future values.

Curve-fitting/extrapolation

US Population

300

250

Persons (millions)

200

150

100

50

0

1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Year

Curve-fitting

• Step 2. Fit a curve.

in population analysis are:

– Linear, Geometric, Exponential, Modified Exponential,

n-degree Polynomial, Logarithmic, Logistic, and

Gompertz.

– The number of possible curves is virtually limitless!

“Curves”

• No, not the fastest growing women’s fitness

chain….

• A “curve” is simply a mathematical formula which

describes the shape of the relationship between

data points.

• Characterized by at least 1 parameter.

• Given x, tells you what y equals.

• Let’s look at: “Population Projections

Worksheet.xls” on class server

Curves

• 1. Linear

y = a + bx

a=intercept, b=slope

Curves

• 2. Geometric

y = ab x

ln y = ln a + x ln b

Curves

• 3. “Power” (so called in Excel)

y = ax b

estimable

ln y = ln a + b ln x

Curves

Called a 2nd degree

polynomial because

• 4. Polynomial

highest exponent is 2

y = a + bx + cx 2

y = a + bx + cx + dx + ex + ...αx

2 3 4 n

Curves

• 5. Exponential

y = ae bx

• 6. Modified Exponential

y = c + ab x

Curves

• 7. Gompertz

x

y = ca b

Curves

• 8. Logistic

1

y=

c + ab x

Fitting curves to data

• See examples on Population Projections

Worksheet, “fittingcurves” with population data

from US.

– Graph data

– Fit curve

– Get equation

– Extrapolate

Bottom-up projections

• The most commonly used in planning is the

“cohort-component” method

• Cohort=age group

• Component=the three components of

demography (fertility, mortality, migration)

The Master Demographic Equation

Cohort Component Technique

• Step 1. Get age-sex data

• Step 2. Acquire “vital records” data

– Birth rates

– Death rates

• Step 3. Calculate survival rates.

• Step 4. “Age the survivors” – move to next bin

for next period

• Step 5. Calculate births

Cohort Component Technique

• 6. Allocate births to males/females

• 7. Project Population

• 8. Model migration as residual.

– -problem is we rarely have age-specific migration rate

AGE MALES FEMALES MALES FEMALES

0 to 4 579 504

5 to 9 753 666 574 504

10 to 14 694 747 753 661

15 to 19 662 589 694 747

20 to 24 347 316 642 589

25 to 29 384 414 347 316

30 to 34 530 578 384 414

35 to 39 676 753 530 578

40 to 44 808 868 671 753

45 to 49 846 917 793 863

50 to 54 823 834 841 907

55 to 59 627 657 808 834

60 to 64 458 462 593 637

65 to 69 “Age”404

each population

418 after

448 applying

452

70 to 74 a survival

358 rate 422 366 418

75 to 79 215 308 324 402

80 to 84 134 192 178 252

85 plus 87 190 113 223

Cohort-Component Technique

• Go to Excel spreadsheet:

New_and_Improved_Cohort_Component_Model.xls

migration.

generally too small for accurate modeling without other

assumptions

• Generally, model larger areas such as counties or regions

Migration as a residual

• Recall the master demographic equation:

Migration as residual

• In our cohort component technique, we have

projected populations based on births, deaths,

and age-cohorts.

• The only “unexplained” component is net

migration

• Can assume net migration is the difference for

each age cohort between the projected and

actual.

Migration as residual

• For example, take 1990 data to project (using

cohort-component) 2000 data

• Compare each age-cohort, 2000 actual and 2000

predicted

• Difference is net migration, 1990-2000

• Apply net migration data (either constant

increment or constant rate) to cohort component

method to project future (2010) population

Migration in cohort-component

poor estimates of future rates.

• Modeling migration as residual might actually

reflect model error or variation

• Is the best available technique, however, for the

type of data currently available

Migration Data

Census or other

sources:http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen20

00/migration.html

• Problem: no internet sources of migration by age-

cohort for small-areas. Census released “Migration

DVD” on October 30,2003 for $70, but some data

disclosure/confidentiality issues

• Pennsylvania State Data Center has files available as of

October 2003 at the county level. See:

http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/pasdc/products_and_services/

Publications/migration/Migration_Flow_Tables_2000.ht

ml

Census Bureau

recommended reading for further methodology:

• “Methodology and Assumptions for the

Population Projections of the United States: 1999

to 2100.” Population Division Working Paper No.

38, US Census Bureau.

• On class server.

Census Bureau – sub-county population

estimates and projections

• Utilize Building Permits Data, mobile home shipment data,

and estimates of housing loss to provide intercensal

estimates of housing units.

• Then apply occupancy rates and average persons per

household (PPH) to derive population estimates, using

county population estimates as controls.

• County population estimates conducted through the

“administrative records” method.

Distributed Housing Unit Method

• Assumptions: “The assumption implicit in this

method is that changes in the occupancy rate

and/or the PPH are measured by the updated

county population estimate and that the rate of

change in occupancy and/or PPH is uniform within

counties.”

Distributed Housing Unit Method

• Continuous updating of housing unit counts through

“GUSSIE” (Geographic Update System to Support

Intercensal Estimates)…..wow!

• From the time of the last census, Census estimates

(through a complicated methodology) residential

construction, mobile home placement, and housing loss…

using building permits data, Survey of Construction, and

applying “loss rates” from the “Components of Inventory

Change Survey” (1993)

Distributed Housing Unit Method

• Before controlling for county population changes, the

formula is quite simple:

Where POP is the estimated population, HU is the estimated

number of housing units, OCC is the occupancy rate, and

PPH is people per household

Yeah, so what…who cares

• Why do we care so much about the method the

Census uses to estimate sub-county

populations???

allocations….its all about the $$

Distributed Housing Unit Method

• How accurate are these estimates/projections?

• Source: “Evaluation of 2000 Subcounty Population

Estimates” Greg Harper, Chuck Coleman and Jason

Devine, Population Estimates Branch, Population Division,

U.S. Census Bureau. 2002

• Census used to estimate sub-county populations with

administrative record-component method until 1996, but

replaced with Distributed Housing Unit Method in 1996,

presumably because more accurate.

Distributed Housing Unit Method

• Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is much higher for

smaller areas.

• Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is much higher for

areas with more rapid growth/decline rates

• Many municipalities in the Philadelphia suburban region

are either fast growing or relatively small.

• Mean Absolute Percent Error for Pennsylvania is 7.8

percent, below national average of 12.4 percent.

Demographic Projections

• All projections and estimates are subject to errors

• How important is it to get it “right”?

• Every method has its strengths and weaknesses.

• Every method makes assumptions.

• Demographic projections, in the “textbook” world,

feed into the land use planning and needs

analysis

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