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Decision Support
MIS and DSS
Artificial Intelligence
Expert Systems
Learning Objectives
1. Identify the changes taking place in the form and
use of decision support in business.
2. Identify the role and reporting alternatives of
management information systems.
3. Describe how online analytical processing can meet
key information needs of managers.
4. Explain the decision support system concept and
how it differs from traditional management
information systems.
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Learning Objectives
5. Explain how the following information systems can
support the information needs of executives,
managers, and business professionals:
a. Executive information systems
b. Enterprise information portals
c. Knowledge management systems
9-4
Learning Objectives
5. Identify how neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic
algorithms, virtual reality, and intelligent agents
can be used in business.
6. Give examples of several ways expert systems can
be used in business decision-making situations.
9-5
Case 1: Centralized Business Intelligence at
Work
Startingeach business-intelligence project from
scratch leads to
Reinventing the wheel
High development and support costs
Incompatible systems
Some companies are standardizing on fewer
business-intelligence tools and making them
available throughout the organization and
Business-intelligence competency centers
9-6
Case Study Questions
1. What is business intelligence? Why are business
intelligence systems such a popular business
application of IT?
2. What is the business value of the various BI
applications discussed in the case?
3. Is a business-intelligence system an MIS or a DSS?
9-7
Real World Internet Activity
1. Companies are taking advantage of the competitive
edge they enjoy from high-quality business
intelligence. To meet the demand for applications
to support the process, vendors are developing a
wide variety of offerings. Using the Internet,
See if you can find several examples of software
products to support the management of business
intelligence.
Do they all take the same approach, or are there
different ways of managing the process?
9-8
Real World Group Activity
Business intelligence competency centers can be quite
costly to start and maintain. There prevalence,
however, suggests the benefits are worth the costs.
In small groups,
Discuss the various skills and job roles necessary for a
competitive business intelligence competency center.
Can such centers be considered competitive advantage
or simply competitive necessity?
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Information required at different
management levels
9-10
Levels of Management Decision
Making
Strategic management
Executives develop organizational goals, strategies,
policies, and objectives
As part of a strategic planning process
Tactical management
Managers and business professionals in self-directed
teams
Develop short- and medium-range plans, schedules
and budgets
Specify the policies, procedures and business objectives
for their subunits
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Levels of Management Decision
Making
Operational management
Managers or members of self-directed teams
Develop short-range plans such as weekly production
schedules
9-12
Information Quality
Information products whose characteristics,
attributes, or qualities make the information more
value
Information has 3 dimensions:
Time
Content
Form
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Attributes of Information Quality
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Decision Structure
Structured – situations where the procedures to
follow when a decision is needed can be specified in
advance
Unstructured – decision situations where it is not
possible to specify in advance most of the decision
procedures to follow
Semistructured - decision procedures that can be
prespecified, but not enough to lead to a definite
recommended decision
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Information Systems to support decisions
Management Decision Support
Information Systems Systems
Decision support Provide information about the Provide information and
provided performance of the organization techniques to analyze
specific problems
Information form Periodic, exception, demand, Interactive inquiries and
and frequency and push reports and responses responses
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Business Intelligence Applications
9-18
Decision Support Systems
DSS
Provide interactive information support to managers
and business professionals during the decision-
making process
Use:
Analytical models
Specialized databases
A decision maker’s own insights and judgments
Interactive computer-based modeling
To support semistructured business decisions
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DSS components
9-20
DSS Model base
Model base
A software component that consists of models used in
computational and analytical routines that
mathematically express relations among variables
Examples:
Linear programming models,
Multiple regression forecasting models
Capital budgeting present value models
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Management Information Systems
MIS
Produces information products that support many of
the day-to-day decision-making needs of managers
and business professionals
Prespecified reports, displays and responses
Support more structured decisions
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MIS Reporting Alternatives
Periodic Scheduled Reports
Prespecified format on a regular basis
Exception Reports
Reportsabout exceptional conditions
May be produced regularly or when exception occurs
Demand Reports and Responses
Information available when demanded
Push Reporting
Information pushed to manager
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Online Analytical Processing
OLAP
Enables mangers and analysts to examine and
manipulate large amounts of detailed and consolidated
data from many perspectives
Done interactively in real time with rapid response
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OLAP Analytical Operations
Consolidation
Aggregation of data
Drill-down
Display detail data that comprise consolidated data
Slicing and Dicing
Ability
to look at the database from different
viewpoints
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OLAP Technology
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Geographic Information Systems
GIS
DSS that uses geographic databases to construct and
display maps and other graphics displays
That support decisions affecting the geographic
distribution of people and other resources
Often used with Global Position Systems (GPS) devices
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Data Visualization Systems
DVS
DSS that represents complex data using interactive
three-dimensional graphical forms such as charts,
graphs, and maps
DVS tools help users to interactively sort, subdivide,
combine, and organize data while it is in its graphical
form.
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Using DSS
What-if Analysis
End user makes changes to variables, or relationships
among variables, and observes the resulting changes in
the values of other variables
Sensitivity Analysis
Value of only one variable is changed repeatedly and
the resulting changes in other variables are observed
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Using DSS
Goal-Seeking
Seta target value for a variable and then repeatedly
change other variables until the target value is achieved
How can analysis
Optimization
Goal is to find the optimum value for one or more
target variables given certain constraints
One or more other variables are changed repeatedly
until the best values for the target variables are
discovered
9-30
Data Mining
Main purpose is to provide decision support to
managers and business professionals through
knowledge discovery
Analyzes vast store of historical business data
Tries to discover patterns, trends, and correlations
hidden in the data that can help a company improve
its business performance
Use regression, decision tree, neural network, cluster
analysis, or market basket analysis
9-31
Market Basket Analysis
One of most common data mining for marketing
The purpose is to determine what products
customers purchase together with other products
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Executive Information Systems
EIS
Combine many features of MIS and DSS
Provide top executives with immediate and easy access
to information
About the factors that are critical to accomplishing an
organization’s strategic objectives (Critical success
factors)
So popular, expanded to managers, analysts and other
knowledge workers
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Features of an EIS
Informationpresented in forms tailored to the
preferences of the executives using the system
Customizable graphical user interfaces
Exception reporting
Trend analysis
Drill down capability
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Enterprise Interface Portals
EIP
Web-based interface
Integration of MIS, DSS, EIS, and other technologies
Gives all intranet users and selected extranet users
access
To a variety of internal and external business
applications and services
Typicallytailored to the user giving them a
personalized digital dashboard
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Enterprise Information Portal
Components
9-36
Knowledge Management Systems
Theuse of information technology to help gather,
organize, and share business knowledge within an
organization
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Enterprise Knowledge Portals
9-38
Case 2 Artificial Intelligence
The Dawn of the Digital Brain
Numenta will translate the way the brain works into
an algorithm that can run on a new type of computer
The human brain does not work like a computer
Intelligence, according to Hawkins, is pattern
recognition
9-39
Case Study Questions
1. What is the business value of AI technologies in
business today? What value might exist if Jeff
Hawkins can build a machine to think like humans?
2. Why has artificial intelligence become so important
to business?
3. Why do you think banks and other financial
institutions are leading users of AI technologies?
What are the benefits and limitations of this
technology?
9-40
Real World Internet Activity
1. The concept of human thought is still a mystery
despite the development of our understanding of
the fundamental processes of the human brain. For
many years, scientists have worked hard to develop
humanlike machines, but none have been able to
perform as well as the human brain when it comes
to reasoning. Using the Internet,
See if you can find evidence of other projects similar
to that of Hawkins.
What is the current state of the art in this area of
research and development?
9-41
Real World Group Activity
Thecase ends by asking the question of whether we
can ever build a machine more intelligent than a
human. The real question is what will we do with it,
or with us, if we are successful. In small groups,
Brainstorm about a future with machines that can equal
or exceed the intelligence of humans.
What good would come of such an accomplishment?
What potential risks might occur?
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Artificial Intelligence (AI)
A field of science and technology based on
disciplines such as computer science, biology,
psychology, linguistics, mathematics, and
engineering
Goal is to develop computers that can simulate the
ability to think, as well as see, hear, walk, talk, and
feel
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Attributes of Intelligent Behavior
Think and reason
Use reason to solve problems
Learn or understand from experience
Acquire and apply knowledge
Exhibit creativity and imagination
Deal with complex or perplexing situations
Respond quickly and successfully to new situations
Recognize the relative importance of elements in a
situation
Handle ambiguous, incomplete, or erroneous
information
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Domains of Artificial Intelligence
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Cognitive Science
Based in biology, neurology, psychology, etc.
Focuses on researching how the human brain works
and how humans think and learn
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Robotics
Based in AI, engineering and physiology
Robot machines with computer intelligence and
computer controlled, humanlike physical capabilities
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Natural Interfaces
Based in linguistics, psychology, computer science,
etc.
Includes natural language and speech recognition
Development of multisensory devices that use a
variety of body movements to operate computers
Virtual reality
Using multisensory human-computer interfaces that
enable human users to experience computer-simulated
objects, spaces and “worlds” as if they actually exist
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Expert Systems
ES
A knowledge-based information system (KBIS) that
uses its knowledge about a specific, complex
application to act as an expert consultant to end users
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Expert System Components
Knowledge Base
Factsabout specific subject area
Heuristics that express the reasoning procedures of an
expert (rules of thumb)
Software Resources
Inference engine processes the knowledge and makes
inferences to make recommend course of action
User interface programs to communicate with end user
Explanation programs to explain the reasoning process
to end user
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Expert System Components
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Methods of Knowledge
Representation
Case-Based – knowledge organized in form of cases
Cases:examples of past performance, occurrences and
experiences
Frame-Based – knowledge organized in a hierarchy
or network of frames
Frames: entities consisting of a complex package of
data values
9-52
Methods of Knowledge
Representation
Object-Based – knowledge organized in network of
objects
Objects: data elements and the methods or processes
that act on those data
Rule-Based– knowledge represented in rules and
statements of fact
Rules: statements that typically take the form of a
premise and a conclusion
Such as, If (condition) then (conclusion)
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Expert System Benefits
Fasterand more consistent than an expert
Can have the knowledge of several experts
Does not get tired or distracted by overwork or stress
Helps preserve and reproduce the knowledge of
experts
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Expert System Limitations
Limited focus
Inability to learn
Maintenance problems
Developmental costs
Can only solve specific types of problems in a limited
domain of knowledge
9-55
Suitability Criteria for Expert Systems
Domain: subject area relatively small and limited to
well-defined area
Expertise: solutions require the efforts of an expert
Complexity: solution of the problem is a complex
task that requires logical inference processing (not
possible in conventional information processing)
Structure: solution process must be able to cope with
ill-structured, uncertain, missing and conflicting data
Availability: an expert exists who is articulate and
cooperative
9-56
Development Tool
Expert System Shell
Software package consisting of an expert system
without its knowledge base
Has inference engine and user interface programs
9-57
Knowledge Engineer
A professional who works with experts to capture the
knowledge they possess
Builds the knowledge base using an iterative,
prototyping process
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Neural Networks
Computing systems modeled after the brain’s mesh-
like network of interconnected processing elements,
called neurons
Interconnected processors operate in parallel and
interact with each other
Allows network to learn from data it processes
9-59
Fuzzy Logic
Method of reasoning that resembles human
reasoning
Allows for approximate values and inferences and
incomplete or ambiguous data instead of relying only
on crisp data
Uses terms such as “very high” rather than precise
measures
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Genetic Algorithms
Software that uses
Darwinian (survival of the fittest), randomizing, and
other mathematical functions
To simulate an evolutionary process that can yield
increasingly better solutions to a problem
9-61
Virtual Reality (VR)
Computer-simulated reality
Relies on multisensory input/output devices such as
a tracking headset with video goggles and stereo
earphones,
a data glove or jumpsuit with fiber-optic sensors that
track your body movements, and
a walker that monitors the movement of your feet
9-62
Intelligent Agents
A software surrogate for an end user or a process that
fulfills a stated need or activity
Uses its built-in and learned knowledge base
To make decisions and accomplish tasks in a way
that fulfills the intentions of a user
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User Interface Agents
Interface Tutors – observe user computer operations,
correct user mistakes, and provide hints and advice on
efficient software use
Presentation – show information in a variety of forms
and media based on user preferences
Network Navigation – discover paths to information
and provide ways to view information based on user
preferences
Role-Playing – play what-if games and other roles to
help users understand information and make better
decisions
9-64
Information Management Agents
Search Agents – help users find files and databases,
search for desired information, and suggest and find
new types of information products, media, and
resources
Information Brokers – provide commercial services to
discover and develop information resources that fit
the business or personal needs of a user
Information Filters – receive, find, filter, discard,
save, forward, and notify users about products
received or desired
9-65
Case 3: Robots are the common denominator
Telerobotic-assistedmedical procedures
Flexible automobile body shop with wireless
inventory replenishment
9-66
Case Study Questions
1. What is the current and future business value of
robotics?
2. Would you be comfortable with a robot performing
surgery on you? Why or why not?
3. The robots being used by Ford Motor Co. are
contributing to a streamlining of their supply chain.
What other applications of robots can you envision
to improve supply chain management beyond
those described in the case?
9-67
Real World Internet Activity
1. Applications for robots are being explored in every
possible setting. Using the Internet,
See if you can find some examples where robots have
been used to improve a process, reduce costs, or make
the impossible possible.
9-68
Real World Group Activity
Theprevious case in the chapter described the
development of a machine that could think just like
humans. Combined with advanced robotics, such a
machine could conceivably perform most actions as
well, or possibly better, than humans. In small
groups,
Discuss how the combination of advanced AI and
robotics could be used to create business value.
What would we want such machines to be able to do or
not do?
9-69