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Statistical Analysis

of the Indian Telecom


Industry
vGSM & CDMA operators
v12 GSM and 2 CDMA
operators
v
v
v
GSM Operators with Market
share
Group Company wise % market share - Jul'2010

Sl. No. Name of Total Sub % Market Share


Company Figures
1 Bharti Airtel 139,220,882 29.74%
2 Vodafone 111,465,260 23.81%
Essar
3 IDEA 70,748,936 15.11%

4 BSNL 68,065,817 14.54%


5 Aircel 43,296,659 9.25%
6 Reliance 16,311,206 3.48%
Telecom
7 Uninor 6,873,798 1.47%
8 MTNL 4,947,938 1.06%
9 Loop Mobile 2,947,228 0.63%
10 Videocon 2,777,396 0.59%
11 Stel 1,423,043 0.30%
12 Etisalat 30,023 0.01%
All India 468,108,186 100.00%
Statistical Analysis
• Airtel

• Reliance

• Share prices from Jan 1st – June 30th 2010


• BSE – Sensex daily index from Jan 1st – June 30th 2010

• Subscriber base addition

• Inflation

• Correlation and Regression

Sensitive Movement
Sensex Vs. Airtel Share
vCorrelation Co efficient = 0.261724
vRegression Result
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0 . 261724345 Airtel=121.039+0.01003*BSE
R Square 0 . 068499633 Senses explains 6% Airtels
Adjusted R 0 . 060671898 stock prices.
Square
Standard Error 21 . 04533269 The relationship is
Observations 121 statistically significant.

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significanc
Regression 1 3875 . 821467 3875 . 82146 8 . 750889 e0 . 003733906
F
Residual 119 52705 . 81733 7442 . 906028
Total 120 56581 . 6388      

  Coefficients Standard t Stat P - value


Intercept 121 . 0395451 Error
58 . 05649952 2 . 08485778 0 . 0392207
BSE 0 . 010029632 0 . 003390462 62 . 95819014 0 . 0037339
8
BSE Line Fit Plot for Airtel
BSE Vs. Reliance Share
vCorrelation Coefficient- 0.172972
v Regression
Regression Statistics
Result
Reliance=162.853+1.1420*BSE
 Multiple R 0 . 172973771 Sensex explains 2% Reliance’s
R Square 0 . 029919925 stock prices.
Adjusted R 0 . 021767992 The relationship is
Square
Standard Error 13 . 85110182 statistically significant.
Observations 121

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Signific
ance F
Regression 1 704 . 1554202 704 . 1554 3 . 670286 0 . 05779
Residual 119 22830 . 50958 191 . 853
Total 120 23534 . 665      

  Coefficients Standard t Stat P - value


Error
Intercept 162 . 8532806 1 . 6808508 96 . 88741 4 . 7E - 115
BSE 1 . 14202E - 06 5 . 96109E - 07 1 . 915799 0 . 05779
BSE Line Fit Plot
Reliance Vs. Airtel
vCorrelation Index = 0.410945
vRegression Result
vSUMMARY OUTPUT Airtel=187.56+0.637*BSE
Reliance explains 16%
Regression Statistics
Airtel’s stock prices.
Multiple R 0 . 410945055
The relationship is
R Square 0 . 168875838 statistically significant.
Adjusted R Square 0 . 161891602
Standard Error 19 . 87912361
Observations 121

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance
Regression 1 9555 . 271692 9555 . 272 24 . 17957 F2 . 84065E - 06
Residual 119 47026 . 36711 395 . 1796
Total 120 56581 . 6388      

  Coefficients Standard t Stat P - value


Intercept 187 . 5611177 Error
21 . 45543683 8 . 741892 1 . 75E - 14
Reliance 0 . 637187885 0 . 129581566 4 . 917273 2 . 84E - 06
Reliance Line Fit Plot
Inflation Vs. Airtel
v Correlation Coefficient =-0.30683
v Regression Result
SUMMARY
v
OUTPUT
Airtel= 376.41+(-4.8122*Inflation)
Regression Statistics Inflation explains 9% Airtel
v R 0 . 306830179
Multiple stock prices.
R Square 0 . 094144759 The relationship is statistically
Adjusted R 0 . 054759748 significant.
Square
Standard 20 . 55415374
Error
Observations 25

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Signific
ance F
Regression 1 1009 . 867468 1009 . 867468 2 . 390370281 0 . 135735
Residual 23 9716 . 884428 422 . 473236
Total 24 10726 . 7519      

  Coefficients Standard t Stat P - value Lower Upper


Error 95 % 95 %
Intercept 376 . 4164898 53 . 28463098 7 . 064260047 3 . 38234E - 07 266 . 1888 486 . 6441
Inflation - 4 . 812219643 3 . 11252502 - 1 . 546082236 0 . 135734622 - 11 . 251 1 . 626529
Inflation Line Fit Plot
Airtel -Month wise Addition
 Month Addition
• Jan 2850212
• Feb 2904962
• Mar 3000109
• Apr 3000173
• May 3000218
• Jun 3000696

Airtel Sales Vs.Share
vCorrelation Coefficient = -0.62037
vRegression Result
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
v
Multiple R 0 . 620373282
R Square 0 . 384863009
Adjusted R Square 0 . 231078762
Standard Error 18 . 19620435
Observations 6

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 828 . 621 828 . 621 2 . 502617 0 . 188819441
Residual 4 1324 . 407 331 . 1019
Total 5 2153 . 028      

  Coefficients Standard t Stat P - value


Error
Intercept 873 . 3878634 366 . 6747 2 . 381915 0 . 075831
Adddition - 0 . 000195968 0 . 000124 - 1 . 58197 0 . 188819
Addition Line Fit Plot
Reliance and Airtel (combined) vs BSE
volumes
Regression Result

v
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.769329268
R Square
0.591867523
Adjusted R Square 0.581402588
Standard Error 1372355.444
Observations 121

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significan
ce F
Regression 3 3.2E+14 1.07E+14 56.55721 1.15E-22
Residual 117 2.2E+14 1.88E+12
Total 120 5.4E+14

Coefficients Standard t Stat P-value Lower Upper Lower Upper


Error 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 4611231.133 1930503 2.388616 0.018512 787971.2 8434491 787971.2 8434491
Reliance -389426.7777 49728.13 -7.83112 2.43E-12 -487911 -290943 -487911 -290943
Volume 446682.5964 48316.62 9.244906 1.31E-15 350994.1 542371.1 350994.1 542371.1
Airtel -45854.21202 6405.856 -7.15817 7.75E-11 -58540.7 -33167.7 -58540.7 -33167.7
Reliance and Airtel (combined) vs BSE
Regression Result
Index
v SUMMARY
OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.529303126
R Square
0.2801618
Adjusted R Square 0.26170441
Standard Error 486.8794198
Observations 121

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significan
Regression 3 ce F
10794505 3598168 15.17884 2.09E-08
Residual 117 27735034 237051.6
Total 120 38529538

Coefficients Standard t Stat P-value Lower Upper Lower Upper


Intercept 13405.67879 Error
684.897 19.57328 1.04E-38 95%
12049.28 95%
14762.08 95.0%
12049.28 95.0%
14762.08
Reliance 29.70749087 17.64237 1.683872 0.094873 -5.2323 64.64728 -5.2323 64.64728
Volume -9.292599276 17.1416 -0.54211 0.588775 -43.2406 24.65544 -43.2406 24.65544
Airtel 1.250241628 2.272647 0.550126 0.583282 -3.25062 5.7511 -3.25062 5.7511
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