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National Press Foundation Presented by Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary Social Security Administration June 13, 2011
But why??????
Boomers now reaching retirement age Yes for a while, but --- This would be a temporary bulge Would pass through over time
Individuals are living longer Death rates have been declining Life expectancies have been rising
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Birth rates have dropped This permanently changes age distribution Immigration has provided some counterweight --- but not enough
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Birth Rate Dropped from 3 to 2; Slow Pop Growth after Baby Boom
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Workers will need to support more retirees x Or more young or old individuals will need to work
x
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Ultimately, each year, each day ------Goods and services of todays workers are shared with all in the population Economics is just how we distribute the scarce resources
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
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One Example: US Social Security Cost Rising as Percent of GDP Above Currently Scheduled Revenue
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What to Do ?
x x
Aging population is largely due to lower fertility With fewer workers per population --Need lower consumption per person
Will we find ways to encourage working longer? Political balance will determine the outcome
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