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Demographics of Aging: Why is Our Population Aging? How Will This Aging Affect Us?

National Press Foundation Presented by Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary Social Security Administration June 13, 2011

The US Population is Aging


x

What does this mean? Shift toward more elders, because


Slowed growth for younger ages Faster growth for older ages

But why??????

The US Population is Aging


x

Is it the -- Baby boomers? Individuals living longer? Lower birth rates?

Yes, to all three

Under 65 Growth Will Slow Over 65 Speeding Up

Age Distribution Shifting Older

Why Is the Population Aging?


x x

Boomers now reaching retirement age Yes for a while, but --- This would be a temporary bulge Would pass through over time

Permanent change for other reasons!!

Why Is the Population Aging?


x

Individuals are living longer Death rates have been declining Life expectancies have been rising

Yes, Death Rates Are Dropping

And Life Expectancies Are Rising


(Note gender gap shrinking since 1980)

Why Is the Population Aging?


x

Individuals living longer is just one piece of the puzzle

Aging of the Population


Changing age distribution Recall growth in younger population is slowing
This is not due to death rates

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The BIG factor for the next 20 years


x

Birth rates have dropped This permanently changes age distribution Immigration has provided some counterweight --- but not enough

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Birth Rate Dropped from 3 to 2; Slow Pop Growth after Baby Boom

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How will this Aging Affect Us?


x

Fewer working age people


Compared to aged dependents

Workers will need to support more retirees x Or more young or old individuals will need to work
x

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Consider Aged Dependency Ratio: OK So Far


A e D p n e c R t s 2 1 S c lS c r y g d e e d n y aio , 0 1 o ia e uit Tut e R p r r se s e ot
H t r a Dt isoic l aa 0 5 .4 0 0 .4 A e D p n e c R tio gd e e d ny a 0 5 .3 0 0 .3 0 5 .2 0 0 .2 0 5 .1 0 0 .1 0 5 .0 0 0 .0 17 95 18 90 18 95 19 90 Ya er 19 95 20 00 20 05 21 00 Ae d p n e c r t g d e e d ny aio (P p la n6 + P p la n2 -6 ) o u tio 5 / o u tio 0 4

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Big increases soon; not due to life expectancy


A e D p n e c R t s 2 1 S c lS c r y g d e e d n y aio , 0 1 o ia e uit Tu t e R p r r se s e ot
I t r e iaepo cio c mae t n m r a yimr v mn at r2 1 nemd t r je t n o p r d o o o t lit po e e t f e 0 0 0 5 .4 0 0 .4 A e D p n e c R tio gd e e d ny a 0 5 .3 0 0 .3 0 5 .2 0 0 .2 0 5 .1 0 0 .1 0 5 .0 0 0 .0 17 95 18 90 18 95 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 21 00 21 05 22 00 22 05 23 00 Ya er Ae d p n e c r t g d e e d n y aio
Inemd t Po cio t r e iae r jet n N i ce s o nr a e inL e if e p ca c x et n y at r2 1 fe 0 0

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Gradual aging after 2030 due to life expectancy


A e D p n e c R t s 2 1 S c lS c r y g d e e d n y aio , 0 1 o ia e uit Tut e R p r r se s e ot
0 5 .4 0 0 .4 A e D p n e c R tio gd e e d ny a 0 5 .3 0 0 .3 0 5 .2 0 0 .2 0 5 .1 0 0 .1 0 5 .0 0 0 .0 17 95 18 95 19 95 20 05 21 05 22 05 Ya er 23 05 24 05 25 05 26 05 27 05 28 05 Ae d p n e c r t gd e e d ny aio
N i ce s inL ee p ca c at r2 1 o nr a e if x et ny f e 0 0

I t r e iaepoeto c mae t n mr a yi po e e tat r2 1 nemd t r j ci n o p r d o o ot lit mr v mn f e 0 0


Inemd t Poet n t r e iae r j cio

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More Dependents per Worker


x

Ultimately, each year, each day ------Goods and services of todays workers are shared with all in the population Economics is just how we distribute the scarce resources

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Pay-As-You-Go System Depends on Current Population


OASDI Covered Workers Per OASDI Beneficiary

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1940

Demographic Change Low Cost Program Matures High Cost

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

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One Example: US Social Security Cost Rising as Percent of GDP Above Currently Scheduled Revenue

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What to Do ?
x x

Aging population is largely due to lower fertility With fewer workers per population --Need lower consumption per person

- Workers share more, or others just get less


x

Will we find ways to encourage working longer? Political balance will determine the outcome
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