Sustainable Cities

Dan Hoornweg Lead Urban Advisor, World Bank June 16, 2011 dhoornweg@worldbank.org
THE WORLD BANK

Cities are adding three million residents each week

Shenzen 30 years ago Shenzen today

Urban Population is increasing rapidly

Cities are drivers of economic growth

Cities have significant impact on GDP and GHG emissions

Population (Millions)
1. China: 1,192 2. India: 916 3. 50 Largest Cities: 500 4. C40 Cities: 393 5. USA: 301 6. Indonesia: 190 7. Brazil: 159 8. Russian Federation: 142 9. Top 10 GHG Cities: 136 10. Japan: 128

GHG Emissions (M tCO2e)

1. USA: 7,107 2. China: 4,058 3. 50 Largest Cities: 2,606 4. C40 Cities: 2,364 5. Russian Federation: 2,193 6. Japan: 1,374 7. Top 10 GHG Cities: 1,367 8. India: 1,214 9. Germany: 956 10. Canada: 747

GDP (billion $ PPP)

1. USA: 14,202 2. 50 Largest Cities: 9,564 3. C40 Cities: 8,781 4. China: 7,903 5. Japan: 4,354 6. Top 10 GHG Cities: 4,313 7. India: 3,388 8. Germany: 2,925 9. Russian Federation: 2,288 10. United Kingdom: 2,176

Hierarchy of Sustainable Cities

Source: Henry Jewell

City Index: Philips

City Index: The Atlantic

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

New York Toronto San Francisco Stockholm Sydney London Chicago Paris Singapore Hong Kong Houston Los Angeles Berlin Tokyo Madrid Seoul Beijing Abu Dhabi Shanghai Mexico City Moscow Santiago Istanbul Sao Paulo Johannesburg Mumbai

City Index: Monocle

Monocle Selects Helsinki as Most Liveable City in the World

Monocle s Top Three Liveable Cities 2011
1 Helsinki 2 Zurich 3 Copenhagen

Urban form and density significantly impact energy consumption

Urban Form Determines Cities Energy Efficiency

Source: Bertaud, A., and T. Pode, Jr., Density in Atlanta: Implications for Traffic and Transit (Los Angeles: Reason Foundation, 2007).

Rapid urban growth requires enhanced planning and institutions

Urbanization in African Cities, 2000 Addis Ababa 2010 Johannesburg Nairobi

Source: Henry Jewell, Urban Development, World Bank, 2011.

By numbers Urban Density (persons/sq km)

Mumbai Nairobi Addis Ababa Johannesburg Philadelphia Houston 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Shanghai s Density

Atlanta s Density

For example

World Bank Activities in Sustainable Cities

Mayors Task Force on climate change and the urban poor GHG Emissions Standard, in partnership with the UN Urban Risk Assessment City-Wide Approach to Carbon Finance Eco2 Cities Global City Indicators Facility Joint Work Program with UNEP, UN-HABITAT and Cities Alliance Urban Metabolism

Mayor s Task Force on Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban poor


Mayor s Task Force set up in December 2009, members include: Dar es Salaam, Jakarta, Mexico City, and Sao Paulo Objectives of the Task Force:
o Improve the understanding of the linkages between urban poverty, climate change and disaster management with a focus on the delivery of sustainable basic services Identify good practice examples where vulnerability has been reduced Identify financing opportunities for cities to address these issues

Jakarta Dar es Salaam

o o

Mexico City

Approach: Global study and 4 city level case studies understanding urban risk

Sao Paulo

Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Disasters in North Africa

Source: Tony Bigio. 2011. Adaptation to Climate Change and Natural Disasters in the Coastal Cities of North Africa

Adaptation costs will largely be in urban areas.

Annual global costs of adaptation, by sector 2010-2050, in USD billions

SECTOR Agriculture, forestry, fisheries Water supply Human health Coastal zones Infrastructure Extreme events Total Adding costs differently

Climate Scenario DRY WET 2.5 19.7 1.5 27.6 13.0 6.4 71.2 70.0 2.6 14.4 2.0 28.5 27.5 6.7 81.5 100.0

2005 Constant Prices, 0% Discounting Source: World Bank Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change

Greenhouse Gas Standard for calculating emissions

 A open, global protocol for attributing GHG emissions is needed in order to establish baselines and monitor progress  Proliferation of protocols and methods for city GHG inventories e.g. ICLEI USA; Bilan carbone (France); Project 2 Degrees (CCI); GRIP (Europe); CO2 Grobbilanz (Germany)  Launched at World Urban Forum in Rio, March 2010; now in partnership with C40  Work ongoing with client cities, in conjunction with WBG regional operations Amman, Bangkok, Dar es Salaam, Jakarta, Mexico City, Quezon City, Sao Paulo Interest from EAP to work with a number of Chinese cities

City GHG emissions per capita

Which neighborhood has the lowest GHG emissions?

East York 1.31 tCO2e/cap (residential only)

Etobicoke 6.62 tCO2e/cap (residential only)

Whitby 13.02 tCO2e/cap (residential only)

Urban Risk Assessment

C O M P L E X I T Y
Adaptive capacity assessments; fiscal transfers Probabilistic risk assessment software Household hazard and vulnerability surveys

Interventions gap analysis

Risk modeling for natural hazards and climate change

Community profiles and Slum mapping

Interventions analysis; key resources, policies, tools, programs, coordination

Hazard exposure maps

Identification of vulnerable areas

C O S T

Institutional mapping for disaster risk and climate change Institutional Assessment

Hazard analysis for city

Socioeconomic analysis of city residents

Hazard Assessment

Socioeconomic Assessment

Legal Foundations National/Regional Frameworks

 Basic Information ; Land Use, Basic Services, Geophysical

 Demographic Information

Adaptation Cost Curves

Source: ClimateWorks Foundation, Global Environment Facility, European Commission, McKinsey& Company, The Rockefeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank and Swiss Re. (2009) Shaping Climate Resilient Development; a framework for decision-making.

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

Source: McKinsey 2009.

City-wide Approach to Carbon Finance

 Draw on existing methodologies to combine projects across different sectors in a single carbon finance program of activities  The methodology is currently being piloted in Amman and is under review by the CDM board.

Global City Indicators Facility

 

Bank-initiated, with over 10 partners and piloted in 9 cities Global City Indicator Facility established in October 2008 at the University of Toronto to oversee the Program City-led program: cities actively participate through collection and analysis process A single comprehensive system for measuring and monitoring city performance and quality of life that will: o Enable elected officials, city managers, and public to monitor the performance of cities over time o Facilitate comparisons across cities and over time o Foster information sharing and learning across cities Over 100 cities across 35 countries have joined

Amman, Jordan Urban Metabolism

1,012 ktCO2e

Total Radiation 20.4 MJ/m2

294 kt Carbon Dioxide 9,136 ktCO2e 1,029 ktCO2e 92 ktCO2e 197 kt Methane 136 kt Nitrous Oxide 42 kt

Landfill Waste
669 kt
Organic Waste Paper, Cardboard, Textiles Plastics, Glass, Metal Other Materials

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

10,256 ktCO2e

1,008 ktCO2e

520 ktCO2e 2,906 ktCO2e

61 ktCO2e

Manufacturing & Industry Cropland

Commercial, Institu tional & Residential

Wastewater
983 ktCO2e

Road Transport

Aviation & Marine T&D Losses

770 GWh 3,766 ktCO2e

Consumption
5,500 GWh

180 MCM/a

Water Supply
73 MCM/a

Electricity Generation
6,270 GWh
Renewables Fuel Oil Diesel Oil Natural Gas 34 GWh 2,744 GWh 19 GWh 3,472 GWh

Natural Gas
2,143 TJ

Fuel Oil
12,998 TJ

LPG
1,910 TJ

Kerosene
1,640 TJ

Diesel Oil
26,236 TJ

Gasoline
20,187 TJ

Jet Kerosene
12,709 TJ

Marine Fuel Oil

668 TJ

Fossil Fuels
Source: L. Sugar 2011.

Cape Town, South Africa Urban Metabolism

Source: L. Sugar 2011.

Financial Flows for Climate Action in Developing Countries

Source: Atteridge et al. (2009). Bilateral Finance Institutions and Climate Change: A Mapping of Climate Portfolios, Stockholm Environment Institute.

A growing menu of climate finance instruments

Adaptation Mitigation

The Adaptation Fund

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience

Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction & Recovery

Global Environmental Facility (GEF) Clean Technology Fund

Carbon Funds

Special Climate Change Fund

Carbon Partnership Facility

Least Developed Country Fund

Risk Instruments

Forest Investment Program Scaling Up Renewable Energy for the Poor

Forest Carbon Partnership Facility

Global Environmental Facility (GEF)

Climate Finance Options for Cities

Urbanization Knowledge Platform

Meet our Partners:

And you?

Our Objective
UrbanKnowledge.Org aims to put the world s best knowledge and data in the hands of policymakers and practitioners, in order to harness urban growth for better development outcomes.

Our 3 Components

1. CONNECTIONS
Matching: A professional dating service that automatically matches urban policymakers, decision makers and technical professionals to each other worldwide. Messaging: Get in direct contact with your counterparts in other cities. Communities of Practice: Community-based Q&A.

2. KNOWLEDGE
Exchange: Tightly-focused videoconferences on the most knotty knowledge gaps. Policy insights: New collaborative research on policy-relevant questions. Briefings: Pithy summaries of knowledge exchange events, and expert viewpoints.

3. CITIES DATA

Indicators: Common indicators to benchmark cities for international comparisons. Integration with Open311 and Google: Open access to municipal-level data.

Our 4 Thematic Pillars

ECONOMIC: rural-to-urban transition. Happens once in a country's lifetime ...but how can it best be facilitated for economic growth? SOCIAL: social inclusion and mobility Urbanization embodies structural inequalities ...so how to incorporate the urban poor in a city's economic fabric? ENVIRONMENTAL: sustainable urban growth Low-density cities are hardwiring environmental costs ...so how to manage urbanization to improve sustainability? 3 Pillar GOVERNANCE: creating accountable cities and towns Poorly governed cities don t deliver on the promise of urbanization ...so what systems of governance are suited for managing urbanization?

Pillar 1

Pillar 2

Pillar 4

Climate change is an important cross-cutting problem, but it is also one among many.

Figure: Exceeding the safe operating space in global environmental systems The green circle above represents the proposed safe operating space for each system above. Red shading denotes an estimate of the current status of each. The boundaries rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle are far beyond the safe operating space 31 (Rockstrom et al 2009).

Thank You