Global Energy Perspectives and the Role of CCS

Neboja Nakienovi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universitt Wien xx naki@iiasa.ac.at

International Carbon Capture and Storage Conference, Jointly Organized by NDRC and ADB, China World Hotel, Beijing 28-29 July 2011

Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis

and its international partners present

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Global Energy Transformations

Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and technology diffusion & sustained investments

#3

Global Carbon Pools Based on GEA

Unconventional Natural Gas ~2,450 4,550 GtCO2
N. Gas ~340500 GtCO2 Oil ~6601,000 GtCO2 Unconv. Oil . ~1,1001,500 GtCO2

Biomass
~1,600 1,650 GtCO2

Gas Hydrates ~100,000 ~6,600 57,000 GtCO2

Coal ~ 29,000 43,000 GtCO2

Soils ~10,000 GtCO2

Atmosphere ~3100 GtCO2

14

Global Energy Transformations

Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and technology diffusion & sustained investments

#5

Global Carbon Emissions

reductions of 35-75% by 2050 Peak by 2020

almost zero or negative in the long term

#6

Global Primary Energy

1200
Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Microchip Commercial aviation Nuclear energy

1000

800

600
Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine

EJ

400
Steam engine Electric motor

Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

200

0 1850

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

#7

Global Primary Energy

Efficiency High Nuclear
1200
Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Microchip Commercial aviation Nuclear energy

PAS

1000

800

600
Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine

EJ

400
Steam engine Electric motor

Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

200

0 1850

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

#8 Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

Global Primary Energy

Efficiency Low Nuclear
1200
Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Microchip Commercial aviation Nuclear energy

PAS

1000

800

600
Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine

EJ

400
Steam engine Electric motor

Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

200

0 1850

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

#9 Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

Efficiency & Smart Systems

(= high flexibility for supply)
2500

GEA-Efficiency
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~50% renewables by 2050

Primary Energy, EJ per year

2000

1500

Phase-out of oil in the medium term (necessary) No expansion of nuclear (choice) Fossil CCS (bridging technology) Bio-CCS & negative emissions (long-term)

1000

500

0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Source: Riahi, GEA

#10

25

Fossil and Bio CCS

20

15
2 O C t G

10

Fossil CCS

0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

bio-CCS

Median and 85th percentile range Source: Riahi, GEA

#11

Carbon Capture and Storage GEA scenarios: World (GtCO2)

3000 2500 2000
rapid upscaling (2050) Max ~ 2500 GtCO2 Atmosphere

1500 1000 500

) 2 O C G ( d e r o t s n b c v i a l m u

Commercialization (2030)

0 Source: Riahi, GEA 2000

Transformation possible without CCS (however, needs strong efficiency focus!) 2020 2040

2060

2080

#12

CCS Potentials & Deployment

500 400 300 200 100 0

mimum

ximum

Gt CO2

mum

mum

2030

Storage potential: Hendricks, 2004 Prosperity map: Bradshaw, 2005

#13

CCS Potentials & Deployment

500 400 300 200 100 0

mimum

ximum

Gt CO2

mum

mum

2050

Storage potential: Hendricks, 2004 Prosperity map: Bradshaw, 2005

#14

CCS Potentials & Deployment

500 400 300 200 100 0

mimum

ximum

Gt CO2

mum

mum

2100

Storage potential: Hendricks, 2004 Prosperity map: Bradshaw, 2005

#15

CCS Potentials & Deployment

500 400 300 200 0

mimum 100

ximum

Gt CO2

mum

mum

2100

Storage potential: Hendricks, 2004 Prosperity map: Bradshaw, 2005

#16

Global Energy Transformations

Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing) Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change brings multiple co-benefits Energy transformations require R&D and technology diffusion & sustained investments

Investment Costs
Photovoltaics, Offshore Wind and Nuclear
100,000 US Nuclear: Average and Minimum/Maximum 1971-1996 US Nuclear: Single Reactor (No Range) 1971-1996 France Nuclear: Average and Min/Max 1977-1999 Solar PV: worldwide average 1975-2009 US$2005/kW Offshore wind: all European projects 1999-2008 US$2005/kW 10,000

1,00

100,

W k / 5 0 2 $ S U

1,000

10,0

100 0.001 Source: Gruebler,

18

1,00

GEA

0.01

0.1

10

100

Investment Portfolio China

2010 & 2050

No Sustainability Policies
($370 billion)

Today
($185 billion)
Other convers ion
Nuclear as G Oil F s Electricity os il Other convers ion R enewable Electricity Gas Oil

Coal

Coal

R enewable Electricity Electricity T rans is ion ms

Electricity T rans is ion ms

Nuclear

2005-2010 F s Electricity os il 2050

Source: GEA

19

Investment Portfolio China

2010 & 2050
GEA-Efficiency No Sustainability Policies
($370 billion) ($407 billion)
Other convers ion CCS
Gas F s Electricity os il

Today
($185 billion)
Other convers ion
Nuclear as G Oil Other convers ion R enewable Electricity Oil

Coal

R enewable Electricity F s Electricity os il

Coal

R enewable Electricity Electricity T rans is ion ms

Electricity T rans is ion ms

Nuclear

2005-2010 F s Electricity os il 2050

Electricity T rans is ion ms

Coal

2050
Gas Oil20

Source: GEA

Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

World Energy Investments 2010

$1250 billion (including demand)
Other c onvers ion

Nuc r lea

R enewa ble E tric lec ity D a (E em nd nerg y c ponents om )

Developing 45%

F s E tric os il lec ity

Electricity 40%
E tric lec ity T ns is ion/D tr. ra m s is Oil

Industrialized 55%

Upstream: Fossil Fuels 30%

Gs a

Source: GEA

23

Investment Portfolio China

2010 & 2050
GEA-Supply No Sustainability Policies
($370 billion) ($530 billion)
Other convers ion
Oil

Today
($185 billion)
Other convers ion
Nuclear as G Oil F s Electricity os il Other convers ion R enewable Electricity Gas

CCS

E (m

Coal

Coal

R enewable Electricity Electricity T rans is ion ms

Electricity T rans is ion ms

R enewable Electricity

Nuclear

2005-2010 F s Electricity os il 2050

Nuclear

2050
F s Electricity os il
24 Electricity

Source: GEA

CO2 Removal Fossil CCS + Bio CSS + Forests

300 00

200 50

200 00

100 50
2 O C t M

100 00

50 00
Source: Riahi, GEA

#25

Biomass potential vs deployment

long term (2100)
60 0

Biomass potential
Productivity Degradation

50 0

Biomass use
Scenario uncertainty

(stringent CC scenarios)

Biomass CCS
(stringent CC scenarios)

40 0

20 0

10 0

Sustainability criteria

30 0

residues*

J E

* 40 EJ residues from Fisher et al (2007) added in GEA

#26

Earth is Warming
Data: NASA 1880-2010

Global warming predicted

(Sawyer, Nature 1972, Broecker, Science 1975)

#27